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Author Topic: MI-EpicMRA: Bush leads, Trump trails  (Read 3939 times)
yeah_93
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« on: August 24, 2015, 08:48:42 pm »

https://lintvwood.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/epic-mra-august-2015-survey.pdf

Bush 45
Clinton 40

Trump 42
Clinton 44

Junk poll again?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2015, 08:55:06 pm »


This poll is garbage. They have 27% support for the Tea Party. No way is Tea Party support that high in Michigan, of all places.
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2015, 08:59:36 pm »

EPIC-MRA is terrible this early out. In 2011, they had Romney up by the same amount.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2015, 09:03:07 pm »

I think someone on Daily Kos said EPIC is great in midterms and terrible in presidential years. They said they were 15 points off in 2012.
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2015, 09:09:55 pm »

EPIC-MRA is terrible this early out. In 2011, they had Romney up by the same amount.
Well, its fair to say that all polling is terrible this early out.

Nothing immediately stands out as trashy in the details of this poll (unlike the other MI poll), aside from the hard to stomach top-line numbers.  MI often flirts with Republican candidates, but usually it comes home for the Democrats.
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RFayette
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2015, 10:16:27 pm »

EPIC-MRA is trash.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2015, 05:31:46 am »

EPIC-MRA is trash.

Based on what?
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« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2015, 06:53:49 am »


Because in August of 2011 they had Obama down by similar numbers. That's not to say their trash but this early out it seems they lean R.
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« Reply #8 on: August 25, 2015, 07:58:17 am »

2012 electorate:

39% Moderate
35% Conservative
26% Liberal

40% Democrat
30% Republican
30% Independent

2016 (according to EpicMRA) electorate:

33% Moderate (- 6% compared to 2012)
37% Conservative (+ 2%)
21% Liberal (- 5%)
9% Undecided

42% Democrat (+ 2%)
37% Republican (+ 7%)
15% Independent (- 15% !)
6% Undecided
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« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2015, 08:15:41 am »

Watch the top numbers more than the spread. That's a better indicator.

That said, Iím still not buying that, even in a dem leaning poll (EPIC-MRA historically dem pollsters). If Jeb Bush (who has an upside down approval rating in that same poll) of all people is +5 over anybody in Michigan, then the dems are in deep trouble. I CAN believe the 45% number for Jeb with most undecided moving to Hillary (Against Jeb). I think that's close to Jeb's ceiling. Maybe 47%.

Trump at 42% against I can certainly believe. McCain was 41% in 2008.

The democrat floor here is 40% in a GOP wave year unless the candidate is a flat out religious bigot like Geoff Fieger was against Christians and Jews. Thatís what Virg Bernero got in 2010. Thereís no way in Hell that Hillary will get 40%. Even Mark Schauer got 46-47% in 2014.
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« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2015, 08:17:04 am »

Stop teasing me, Michigan
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« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2015, 08:22:18 am »


This poll is garbage. They have 27% support for the Tea Party. No way is Tea Party support that high in Michigan, of all places.

Hahaha.  You know nothing, Bandit Snow.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2015, 08:24:44 am »


This poll is garbage. They have 27% support for the Tea Party. No way is Tea Party support that high in Michigan, of all places.

Hahaha.  You know nothing, Bandit Snow.

The Gallup poll at the height of the 2014 campaign had Tea Party support at only 19% nationwide.
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« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2015, 08:34:46 am »

Even if Hillary is tied with Bush and only slightly behind Rubio in MI, it's still bad news for her. Rubio is ahead in FL and competitive in MI and PA, states that she needs to win.
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« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2015, 09:09:33 am »

Even if Hillary is tied with Bush and only slightly behind Rubio in MI, it's still bad news for her. Rubio is ahead in FL and competitive in MI and PA, states that she needs to win.

The problem is, EPIC-MRA had Terry Lynn Land up in early 2014...it is not a great pollster.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #15 on: August 25, 2015, 09:13:19 am »

Even if Hillary is tied with Bush and only slightly behind Rubio in MI, it's still bad news for her. Rubio is ahead in FL and competitive in MI and PA, states that she needs to win.

The problem is, EPIC-MRA had Terry Lynn Land up in early 2014...it is not a great pollster.
What problem? Land DID have a lead in early 2014, and she lost it. Once she lost her early lead, Epic never had her up again.
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« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2015, 09:16:03 am »

Even if Hillary is tied with Bush and only slightly behind Rubio in MI, it's still bad news for her. Rubio is ahead in FL and competitive in MI and PA, states that she needs to win.

The problem is, EPIC-MRA had Terry Lynn Land up in early 2014...it is not a great pollster.
What problem? Land DID have a lead in early 2014, and she lost it. Once she lost her early lead, Epic never had her up again.

Um, this problem happens to just about every MI Republican, losing polling support as the campaign goes on.  I think it shows a fundamental problem with MI pollsters.
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« Reply #17 on: August 25, 2015, 09:16:09 am »

Even if Hillary is tied with Bush and only slightly behind Rubio in MI, it's still bad news for her. Rubio is ahead in FL and competitive in MI and PA, states that she needs to win.

The problem is, EPIC-MRA had Terry Lynn Land up in early 2014...it is not a great pollster.

Keep in mind that Land was up or at least tied with Peters in early 2014. PPP also showed her beating him. She was supposed to be a good candidate and it was a close race until she imploded in the final months. Also, their last poll in 2014 was just 2 points off (they actually UNDERestimated Lynn Land!).
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« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2015, 02:05:36 pm »

Go ahead, Republicans, try and win Michigan. Spend money that you could be spending on Florida, Ohio, and Virginia on Michigan instead. Wink
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« Reply #19 on: August 25, 2015, 04:24:24 pm »

Even if Hillary is tied with Bush and only slightly behind Rubio in MI, it's still bad news for her. Rubio is ahead in FL and competitive in MI and PA, states that she needs to win.

The problem is, EPIC-MRA had Terry Lynn Land up in early 2014...it is not a great pollster.
What problem? Land DID have a lead in early 2014, and she lost it. Once she lost her early lead, Epic never had her up again.

Um, this problem happens to just about every MI Republican, losing polling support as the campaign goes on.  I think it shows a fundamental problem with MI pollsters.

I'd say it is more of a problem with the campaigns than the pollsters. I like Terri Land and consider her a friend, but she did not have a good campaign staff. The easiest way to lose here is to be perceived as being a weak candidate.

A poll, when done right, is a snapshot in time of a representative sample of the opinion of the electorate. It measures support in this case - 2015 instead of November 2016.

There are paths to win Michigan (and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for that matter). It's been done on several occasions. It's more challenging in presidential elections, as the dems are good at GOTV in the cities, but there's a lot more to this state than Wayne County.



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« Reply #20 on: August 25, 2015, 09:38:52 pm »

Is there something specific to Michigan that leads to a ton of early polls that show Republicans doing way way better than they end up performing in the elections? It's not just Land; it seems like we get polls like this every election cycle and still no dice with winning the state in federal elections.

For whatever reason, this doesn't seem to occur nearly as much in any of the other midwestern states.
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« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2015, 09:53:20 am »

Is there something specific to Michigan that leads to a ton of early polls that show Republicans doing way way better than they end up performing in the elections? It's not just Land; it seems like we get polls like this every election cycle and still no dice with winning the state in federal elections.

For whatever reason, this doesn't seem to occur nearly as much in any of the other midwestern states.

For one thing, the Mackinac Institute, a right-wing think tank, commissions lots of polls that get the intended results. 
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« Reply #22 on: August 28, 2015, 01:34:17 am »

give it up fellow republicans. this is fool's gold.
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« Reply #23 on: August 28, 2015, 08:27:19 pm »

LOL

No. Watch Hildog win Michigan by 10.
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« Reply #24 on: August 28, 2015, 11:44:20 pm »

I think Trump has a good chance of winning MI. His populist rhetoric will resonate with the white working class.

Compare this to recent UK election where the white working class completely abandoned the Labour in favor of UKIP. Trump is Cameron and Farage in one person.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2015, 11:47:06 pm by Ljube »Logged
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