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  MI-EpicMRA: Bush leads, Trump trails (search mode)
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Author Topic: MI-EpicMRA: Bush leads, Trump trails  (Read 4443 times)
Republican Michigander
Sr. Member
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Posts: 394


Political Matrix
E: 5.81, S: -2.26

« on: August 25, 2015, 08:15:41 am »

Watch the top numbers more than the spread. That's a better indicator.

That said, Iím still not buying that, even in a dem leaning poll (EPIC-MRA historically dem pollsters). If Jeb Bush (who has an upside down approval rating in that same poll) of all people is +5 over anybody in Michigan, then the dems are in deep trouble. I CAN believe the 45% number for Jeb with most undecided moving to Hillary (Against Jeb). I think that's close to Jeb's ceiling. Maybe 47%.

Trump at 42% against I can certainly believe. McCain was 41% in 2008.

The democrat floor here is 40% in a GOP wave year unless the candidate is a flat out religious bigot like Geoff Fieger was against Christians and Jews. Thatís what Virg Bernero got in 2010. Thereís no way in Hell that Hillary will get 40%. Even Mark Schauer got 46-47% in 2014.
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Republican Michigander
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 394


Political Matrix
E: 5.81, S: -2.26

« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2015, 04:24:24 pm »

Even if Hillary is tied with Bush and only slightly behind Rubio in MI, it's still bad news for her. Rubio is ahead in FL and competitive in MI and PA, states that she needs to win.

The problem is, EPIC-MRA had Terry Lynn Land up in early 2014...it is not a great pollster.
What problem? Land DID have a lead in early 2014, and she lost it. Once she lost her early lead, Epic never had her up again.

Um, this problem happens to just about every MI Republican, losing polling support as the campaign goes on.  I think it shows a fundamental problem with MI pollsters.

I'd say it is more of a problem with the campaigns than the pollsters. I like Terri Land and consider her a friend, but she did not have a good campaign staff. The easiest way to lose here is to be perceived as being a weak candidate.

A poll, when done right, is a snapshot in time of a representative sample of the opinion of the electorate. It measures support in this case - 2015 instead of November 2016.

There are paths to win Michigan (and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for that matter). It's been done on several occasions. It's more challenging in presidential elections, as the dems are good at GOTV in the cities, but there's a lot more to this state than Wayne County.



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