IA-PPP: Grassley safe; trounces opponents
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  IA-PPP: Grassley safe; trounces opponents
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Author Topic: IA-PPP: Grassley safe; trounces opponents  (Read 1115 times)
JRP1994
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« on: August 11, 2015, 10:47:19 AM »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/general-election-tight-in-iowa.html

"Chuck Grassley looks to be in pretty good shape for reelection next year. He has a 52/32 approval rating, easily making him the state's most popular politician and making him one of the more popular Senators in the country on top of that. He leads his prospective Democratic opponents by anywhere from 22 to 24 points- it's 51/29 over Bob Krause, 53/30 over Tom Fiegen, and 52/28 over Rob Hogg. The Democratic candidates are all little known, with name recognition ranging from 18% to 22%, so there could be some tightening down the road but Grassley is in a pretty good place to start."
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2015, 11:09:18 PM »

Grassley won't lose, even against Vilsack. The Democrats' next chance for this seat is when he retires.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: August 14, 2015, 01:53:11 AM »

While I think Grassely will cruise to re-election, I think he performs the worst since his election in 1980, as ticket splitting is becoming less common. I say he wins in the upper 50's.
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madelka
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« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2015, 03:35:11 AM »

Grassley won't lose, even against Vilsack. The Democrats' next chance for this seat is when he retires.

Write this seat off. By the time Grassley retires, Iowa will be the next Missouri. With Clinton in the White House, this trend will become even more evident.
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RFayette
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« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2015, 09:13:31 AM »

Grassley won't lose, even against Vilsack. The Democrats' next chance for this seat is when he retires.

Write this seat off. By the time Grassley retires, Iowa will be the next Missouri. With Clinton in the White House, this trend will become even more evident.

Missouri has more Evangelicals and has consistently trended R.  Iowa has not.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #5 on: August 14, 2015, 10:24:56 AM »

Grassley won't lose, even against Vilsack. The Democrats' next chance for this seat is when he retires.

Write this seat off. By the time Grassley retires, Iowa will be the next Missouri. With Clinton in the White House, this trend will become even more evident.

Iowa's a light blue state with two Democratic-leaning districts and one swing district. Tom Harkin served 30 years in the senate, and the Democratic AG and state treasurer have easily won reelection ever since they were first elected (even in last year's Republican wave). The Democratic SoS nominee also came within two points of winning and held the GOP nominee to under 50%. Bruce Braley was probably the worst Democrat that could have run for that seat, so I wouldn't judge any Democrat's performance on him. Iowa has also gone Democratic for president every year since 1988 (except for 2004, and even then Bush only won by less than a point).

You're also forgetting that, despite easily winning reelection in 2010, Grassley also lost a county for the first time since 1980 (Johnson County, which is where the University of Iowa is located). I think with a strong challenger, Grassley will have to work for reelection. There's also the fact that I'm not entirely convinced he's going to actually run for reelection this year (I think he's going to pull a Tom Latham and retire after only little-known Democrats have announced, thereby giving the GOP an advantage).
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CrabCake
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2015, 02:40:38 PM »

D+1!
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Figueira
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2015, 07:00:05 PM »

I'll never understand why people are so willing to vote for people that they have no agreement with, but anyway, we all knew Grassley was safe.
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