Iowa Suffolk Poll - Hillary: 54% Sanders: 20%

[Likely Voter]

Clinton supposedly has the biggest and best organized operation on the ground in Iowa and she has already started paid advertising there. And while the state is very white like NH, he doesn't have the same regional appeal and there are probably fewer latte liberals attracted to his brand. So the irony of 2016 (vs 2008) is that IA is a much better state for Hillary.

I saw reporting (cant remember where) that even Team Biden see that Hillary is already too well organized in IA and they are eyeing SC as his best chance for a first win, presumably he thinks he can peel off African Americans support due to his connection to Obama, but will they go for him if he is 0 for 2 after IA and NH?

[Likely Voter]

As noted before, African Americans (in SC and elsewhere) didn't get on board the Obama train until after Obama won IA in 2008.  I think they may be more pragmatic. I suspect they will go with whoever seems to be the mainstream leader by the time of SC. That could be Biden, but he will have to do some good media jujitsu if he has lost two states but is seen as the guy with big mo.

[Likely Voter]

That is a good point about NV, but again I think Hillary will have the edge there due to her organization and her strength with Latinos. I would be that Hillary would get the endorsement of the culinary union and that would be that for NV. If that happens then when SC comes up Biden will be 0 for 3,  facing Hillary who is at worst 2 wins - 1 loss (NH). 

I still feel that nothing short of a criminal indictment of Hillary can stop her (and maybe pleading to a misdemeanor might not even stop her).