Expected Changes from 2012 to 2016 (Trends)

[Clark Kent]

I apologize if this is in the wrong forum, but since it has to do with trends, I thought it belonged here.

So I did the math and found out how Democratic/Republican each state was compared to the nation as a whole in 2012 by subtracting 3.86% from the Democratic margin, because Obama won nationwide by 3.86%. That is what I call the 2012 "basemap".

I would've done this myself, but fortunately Dave saved me the trouble by including a "trend" map in the presidential elections, which shows how much more Democratic/Republican each state became since the "basemap" of the last election, or in this case, from 2008 to 2012. I added each state's trend to its 2012 margins, and created what I expect the 2016 "basemap" to look something like.

DC: D+80.89%
HI: D+39.70%
VT: D+33.74%
NY: D+29.05%
RI: D+26.66%
MD: D+26.26%
CA: D+21.73%
MA: D+20.02%
NJ: D+19.57%
ME: D+12.80%
WA: D+12.10%
CT: D+11.84%
DE: D+11.82%
IL: D+8.15%
OR: D+7.38%
NM: D+4.72%
MN: D+4.69%
MI: D+2.07%
IA: D+1.63%
CO: D+1.32%
NH: D+1.10%
VA: D+0.99%
OH: D+0.92%
NV: D+0.41%
PA: D+0.01%
WI: R+0.48%
FL: R+1.51%
NC: R+4.86%
AK: R+6.90%
AZ: R+10.07%
MS: R+10.28%
GA: R+10.87%
SC: R+12.42%
LA: R+16.24%
MO: R+19.06%
TX: R+20.25%
IN: R+21.88%
AL: R+23.25%
MT: R+25.37%
TN: R+26.18%
AR: R+27.98%
SD: R+28.09%
KS: R+28.84%
NE: R+29.08%
KY: R+29.60%
ND: R+31.06%
OK: R+36.25%
ID: R+38.76%
WV: R+40.81%
WY: R+49.86%
UT: R+68.39%


Of course, this is assuming that the trends remain the same from 2012-2016 as they were from 2008-2012, which is extremely unlikely. Still, I find it interesting how, from the 2012 basemap, Michigan and New Mexico go from being Democratic-leaning states to swing states, and North Carolina goes from being a Republican-leaning state to a swing state.

[Slander and/or Libel]

I know Pennsylvania keeps getting hammered on, but Pennsylvania, if you look back over the last 20-30 years, is a lot less elastic than people tend to give it credit for.

[YaBoyNY]

I hope PA becomes more Democratic and somewhere like GA more Republican so I will never have to hear about their "inevitable" trends again.

[Figueira]

Here's a close Republican victory if these numbers are accurate. Nevada is the tipping point.

Of course these numbers aren't accurate, but it's still a fun map.

[Clark Kent]

Here's a close Republican victory if these numbers are accurate. Nevada is the tipping point.

Of course these numbers aren't accurate, but it's still a fun map.

Man, that map looks weird.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's a close Republican victory if these numbers are accurate. Nevada is the tipping point.

Of course these numbers aren't accurate, but it's still a fun map.

Man, that map looks weird.

Not that weird if the Democrat bleeds non-college white and Hispanic support while holding Obama's black support and gaining a bit with college whites.  It looks like the narrowest Jeb win over Hillary pre-email and pre-Trump.  The only truly difficult part to explain is Ohio.

[Clark Kent]

Here's a close Republican victory if these numbers are accurate. Nevada is the tipping point.

Of course these numbers aren't accurate, but it's still a fun map.

Man, that map looks weird.

Not that weird if the Democrat bleeds non-college white and Hispanic support while holding Obama's black support and gaining a bit with college whites.  It looks like the narrowest Jeb win over Hillary pre-email and pre-Trump.  The only truly difficult part to explain is Ohio.

I mean a Republican Wisconsin without also winning Iowa looks really weird, as does Republican Pennsylvania but Democratic Ohio and Virginia.

[bobloblaw]

You can see the trend in the polling already.

You have mostly a unified Dem party with Hillary polling 4-5 points less than what Obama got in 2012.

If you look at the two party vote since 1988, the incumbent party loses about 4-5 points in the NPV. Bush 88 was down from Reagan 84 by 4-5 points. Gore 2000 was down from Clinton 96 by 4 points. McCain 08 got 5 points less than GW Bush got in 04.

Prior to 1988, the decline in two party NPV was even greater given there were more swing voters. Ford 76 down 12 points from Nixon 72. Humphrey 68 down 11 points from LBJ 64. Nixon 60 down 8 points from Ike 56. Stevenson 52 down 7 points from Truman 48. Even FDR lost votes from 1936 to 1940.

There is no way that Clinton does better than Obama did in 2012. She is a much weaker candidate.

Ill say PA is the most likely state that could flip. Given Toomey's big lead and the DEM AG headed off to prison.