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Author Topic: NH-PPP: New Hampshire doesn't appear to be a battleground state  (Read 3092 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: August 26, 2015, 01:55:20 pm »

Kasich/Clinton: 43/41
Clinton/Trump: 46/44
Clinton/Fiorina: 45/42
Clinton/Paul: 47/37 (lol)
Clinton/Cruz: 49/38
Clinton/Huckabee: 49/36
Clinton/Bush: 46/39
Clinton/Christie: 46/38
Clinton/Rubio: 47/39
Clinton/Walker: 47/39
Clinton/Carson: 48/40
Sanders/Bush: 46/38
Sanders/Walker: 47/39
Sanders/Trump: 50/41
Sanders/Rubio: 48/35
Clinton/Trump/Bush: 43/28/22

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/ayottehassan-a-toss-up-clintonsanders-generally-lead-gop-field.html
« Last Edit: August 26, 2015, 02:06:27 pm by TNvolunteer »Logged

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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2015, 02:01:42 pm »

B-b-b-b-b-b-but Free Bird and Larry Sabato told me New Hampshire is a super-duper-mega-ultra-turbo-elastic-libertarian-and-independent swing state! Cry
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Figueira
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2015, 02:05:25 pm »

I guess the libertarians in New Hampshire are mostly people who vote Republican anyway, or they (correctly) don't see Rand Paul as a real libertarian.

But I hope these polls hold up; I prefer it when New Hampshire votes Democratic.
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2015, 02:16:34 pm »

Sanders is certainly more electable in NH. Compared to Hillary, he's +1 against Bush, +7 against Trump, +5 against Rubio, and the same against Walker.
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2015, 02:20:55 pm »

Sanders is certainly more electable in NH. Compared to Hillary, he's +1 against Bush, +7 against Trump, +5 against Rubio, and the same against Walker.

Makes sense, considering that next door, he even won a decent number of Bush and Romney voters. Of course, Vermont=/=New Hampshire, but they do have some similarities.
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2015, 02:23:14 pm »

B-b-b-b-b-b-but Free Bird and Larry Sabato told me New Hampshire is a super-duper-mega-ultra-turbo-elastic-libertarian-and-independent swing state! Cry

Look at who the potential nominees are: Kasich, Trump, Rubio. Close to 80% chance it will be one of them. Being within MOE on 2 out of 3 (including one lead) is pretty swingy. Of course Hillary is beating the trash.
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2015, 02:30:43 pm »

Any state in which Hillary is currently under 50% is a battleground state, or has the potential to be one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2015, 02:51:13 pm »

For her this is an improvement against any Republican.

Is the e-mail controversy imploding? If so, the recent 'downer' polls for her will soon become irrelevant, and we will see much more red on the polling maps.
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2015, 03:04:14 pm »

For her this is an improvement against any Republican.

Is the e-mail controversy imploding? If so, the recent 'downer' polls for her will soon become irrelevant, and we will see much more red on the polling maps.

In your dreams!

The e-mail controversy as you call it leaves us with only two possible conclusions:

1) Either she did it for convenience, without thinking about consequences, which makes her incompetent
2) Or she did it on purpose which makes her corrupt

In any case, she is unfit to become President.

The general public is still largely unaware of this scandal, but the more people get to know this, the lower her numbers will be.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2015, 03:05:52 pm by Ljube »Logged
Free Bird
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2015, 03:18:03 pm »

B-b-b-b-b-b-but Free Bird and Larry Sabato told me New Hampshire is a super-duper-mega-ultra-turbo-elastic-libertarian-and-independent swing state! Cry

It is. You're taking a PPP seriously.
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« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2015, 03:26:56 pm »

Looking at some of the numbers, New Hampshire absolutely appears to be a battleground.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2015, 03:35:25 pm »

Looking at some of the numbers, New Hampshire absolutely appears to be a battleground.

I still think it could end up being the battleground. A very plausble scenario is GOP candidate (possibly Kasich/Rubio ticket) picks up leads in FL,OH,CO and IA. The Hillary/Kaine ticket picks up leads in PA, WI, NV and VA.   That leaves NH as the ultimate tipping point.   There could be a case where they end up spending as much in NH as the do in larger states like IA or even CO.
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2015, 03:37:51 pm »

Um, so Trump is actually doing better than nearly every other Republican in NH.  That's weird and worrying.
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2015, 04:28:46 pm »

Just because Bush is doing poorly doesn't mean this isn't going to be competitive. Look at Kasich. For Christ's sake look at Trump.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2015, 04:37:41 pm »

The people love a winner and right now Trump looks invincible.
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« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2015, 04:52:32 pm »

Republicans won't lose NH by 10 points, but they won't win it either.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2015, 05:02:17 pm »

Looking at some of the numbers, New Hampshire absolutely appears to be a battleground.

I still think it could end up being the battleground. A very plausble scenario is GOP candidate (possibly Kasich/Rubio ticket) picks up leads in FL,OH,CO and IA. The Hillary/Kaine ticket picks up leads in PA, WI, NV and VA.   That leaves NH as the ultimate tipping point.   There could be a case where they end up spending as much in NH as the do in larger states like IA or even CO.

New Hampshire with Kasich = Tilt/Leans D
New Hampshire with Bush/Rubio/Paul = Likely D
New Hampshire with anyone else = Safe D

If the GOP has to rely on NH to put them over the top, the election is probably already over.

But I hope these polls hold up; I prefer it when New Hampshire votes Democratic.

Oh, it will. Don't worry about it. The state is not as elastic or Independent as most people here seem to think. But I repeat myself.

Any state in which Hillary is currently under 50% is a battleground state, or has the potential to be one.

Michigan? Minnesota? Pennsylvania?

Looking at some of the numbers, New Hampshire absolutely appears to be a battleground.

If you think Kasich will win the nomination, then yes. Otherwise, no. NH is Clinton's best "battleground" state in the polls so far (even better than PA and MI). Also lol@people believing Trump could carry NH in a general election.
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« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2015, 09:41:49 pm »

... If the swing nationwide for Kasich is R+7.78%, he swings the map to look like this:



336 - 202
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« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2015, 10:56:31 pm »

The thread title should be "New Hampshire won't be a battleground... if Sanders is nominated".

Hillary is only beating Trump by 2%. That's hilarious.
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« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2015, 05:23:26 am »

B-b-b-b-b-b-but Free Bird and Larry Sabato told me New Hampshire is a super-duper-mega-ultra-turbo-elastic-libertarian-and-independent swing state! Cry

Its certainly very elastic and independent, but its not libertarian. I don't know where you got that, and Larry Sabato has never said that.

What I'm shocked at here (besides the Democrats doing very well) is Sanders' lead. Not only is he winning in the primary, he's winning easily in the general. Kind of a wake up call to see that he's just as electable (or in some cases, even more) than Clinton when months ago many (including myself) wrote him off as much less electable.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2015, 06:35:31 am »

CLINTON v Trump NH 52-46

CLINTON V Jeb NH 50-47
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« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2015, 08:47:57 am »

Republicans won't lose NH by 10 points, but they won't win it either.

Except during the LBJ landslide (the state was one of two that went to Landon in 1936!), Republicans haven't lost New Hampshire by 10%. They got close to doing so in 2008. 
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« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2015, 11:13:38 am »

Republicans won't lose NH by 10 points, but they won't win it either.

Except during the LBJ landslide (the state was one of two that went to Landon in 1936!), Republicans haven't lost New Hampshire by 10%. They got close to doing so in 2008. 

I think you're thinking of Vermont. New Hampshire narrowly went FDR.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2015, 11:49:30 am »

Republicans won't lose NH by 10 points, but they won't win it either.

Except during the LBJ landslide (the state was one of two that went to Landon in 1936!), Republicans haven't lost New Hampshire by 10%. They got close to doing so in 2008. 

I think you're thinking of Vermont. New Hampshire narrowly went FDR.

Correction noted.

"As goes Maine... so goes Vermont". FDR, 1936.


Except for 1964, the strongest win for any Democratic nominee in New Hampshire was by Obama in 2008.
 
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« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2015, 12:42:42 pm »

But I hope these polls hold up; I prefer it when New Hampshire votes Democratic.

That gives us hope that Ayotte will finally lose as well.
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