Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 19, 2019, 10:34:38 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 15 Print
Author Topic: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.  (Read 66689 times)
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2015, 06:03:46 pm »
« edited: September 11, 2015, 06:07:18 pm by pbrower2a »

South Carolina, PPP:


Bush 47%
Clinton 37%

Clinton 34%
Trump 33%
Bush 25%

Carson 54%
Clinton 36%

Cruz 48%
Clinton 39%

Fiorina 48%
Clinton 38%

Clinton 39%
Graham 38%

Huckabee 49%
Clinton 39%

Kasich 42%
Clinton 38%

Rubio 46%
Clinton 40%

Trump 50%
Clinton 39%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/SouthCarolina2016GeneralResults.pdf

Note that PPP has dropped Rand Paul and Scott Walker. That may be a hint on whom I drop.

...This is reasonably close to the 2012 results in South Carolina by Romney against Obama.
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2015, 06:05:27 pm »

Where's the IA-Marist poll?

Good question. I'm not hiding it.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2015, 06:11:10 pm »

PPP does Florida next week.

...the e-mail issue is hurting Hillary Clinton badly now. It dies -- or she can forget the Presidency.

Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,758
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: September 12, 2015, 10:48:08 am »

Can't wait til FL poll against Trump, email controversy will not go away entirely but its importance is going to be diminished. There is no smoking gun.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: September 12, 2015, 12:53:11 pm »

Can't wait til FL poll against Trump, email controversy will not go away entirely but its importance is going to be diminished. There is no smoking gun.

Should there be an ethnic divide in the demographics, then the ethnic splits should be interesting. 

Logged
EliteLX
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 960
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: September 12, 2015, 01:38:50 pm »

South Carolina, PPP:


Bush 47%
Clinton 37%

Clinton 34%
Trump 33%
Bush 25%

Carson 54%
Clinton 36%

Cruz 48%
Clinton 39%

Fiorina 48%
Clinton 38%

Clinton 39%
Graham 38%

Huckabee 49%
Clinton 39%

Kasich 42%
Clinton 38%

Rubio 46%
Clinton 40%

Trump 50%
Clinton 39%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/SouthCarolina2016GeneralResults.pdf

Note that PPP has dropped Rand Paul and Scott Walker. That may be a hint on whom I drop.

...This is reasonably close to the 2012 results in South Carolina by Romney against Obama.
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Jeb Bush is not down deep blue in Iowa.. lol.

You have various states missing from various candidates.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,374
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: September 15, 2015, 04:35:24 pm »

Where's the IA-Marist poll?

Good question. I'm not hiding it.

Then where is it?

I think he means he hasn't seen it.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218755.0
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2015, 05:35:34 pm »
« Edited: September 15, 2015, 07:39:43 pm by pbrower2a »

Florida, PPP:

Bush 45%
Clinton 42%

Bush 45%
Biden 42%

Bush 45%
Sanders 41%

Clinton 39%
Bush 29%
Trump 27%

Carson 49%
Clinton 40%

Carson 48%
Sanders 33%

Clinton 45%
Cruz 43%

Fiorina 46%
Clinton 41%

Fiorina 44%
Sanders 37%

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 43%

Kasich 44%
Clinton 41%

Rubio 48%
Clinton 43%

Trump 48%
Clinton 42%

Trump 47%
Biden 43%

Trump 47%
Sanders 41%

Walker 45%
Clinton 43%

Walker 42%
Sanders 40%
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Logged
Sen. Vern
vern1988
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,555
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.26, S: -2.43

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: September 16, 2015, 11:19:38 pm »

Fiorina Needs to replace Paul
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: September 18, 2015, 07:46:18 pm »

Carson and Fiorina are in; Paul and Walker are out at the next opportunity.
Logged
Sen. Vern
vern1988
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,555
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.26, S: -2.43

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: September 18, 2015, 10:13:13 pm »

Carson and Fiorina are in; Paul and Walker are out at the next opportunity.
Thanks!
Logged
WVdemocrat
DimpledChad
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 961
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: September 19, 2015, 04:45:33 pm »
« Edited: September 19, 2015, 04:47:07 pm by DimpledChad »

Carson and Fiorina are in; Paul and Walker are out at the next opportunity.

Why the d*cks is Huckabee still in it? If anybody should be replaced by Carson, it's him. Walker could have a resurgence and win the nomination. Huckabee has come nowhere close to being a frontrunner at any point in the campaign.

Jeb is barely higher than Walker. Keep Walker in and take Huckabee out.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: September 21, 2015, 03:28:05 pm »

Quote
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin has concluded he no longer has a path to the Republican presidential nomination and plans to drop out of the 2016 campaign, according to three Republicans familiar with his decision, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

...

In the most recent CNN survey, Mr. Walker drew support nationally from less than one-half of one percent of Republican primary voters. He faced growing pressure to shake up his campaign staff, a step he was loath to take, according to Republicans briefed on his deliberations.


http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/21/scott-walker-said-to-be-quitting-presidential-race/
 

That makes one choice extremely easy:

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: September 21, 2015, 03:32:20 pm »
« Edited: September 21, 2015, 03:37:39 pm by pbrower2a »

Iowa, Marist:

50-39 Bush/Hillary
48-43 Trump/Hillary

46-44 Bush/Biden
49-45 Biden/Trump

http://de.scribd.com/doc/278707798/NBC-News-Marist-Poll-Iowa-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2015

(PPP shows Iowa results this week, so this might not stick).
 
Siena, New York (state)

Biden 59%
Bush 30%

Biden 55%
Carson 35%

Biden 60%
Trump 33%

Clinton 53%
Bush 36%

Clinton 52%
Carson 40%

Clinton 55%
Trump 36%

Sanders 52%
Bush 33%

Sanders 46%
Carson 39%

Sanders 52%
Trump 38%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more
Logged
WVdemocrat
DimpledChad
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 961
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: September 21, 2015, 03:34:08 pm »

Carson and Fiorina are in; Paul and Walker are out at the next opportunity.

Why the d*cks is Huckabee still in it? If anybody should be replaced by Carson, it's him. Walker could have a resurgence and win the nomination. Huckabee has come nowhere close to being a frontrunner at any point in the campaign.

Jeb is barely higher than Walker. Keep Walker in and take Huckabee out.

Okay, on second thought, forget all of this. Tongue
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: September 22, 2015, 09:36:21 pm »

Setting up maps for Carson and Fiorina.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: September 22, 2015, 09:43:26 pm »
« Edited: September 22, 2015, 09:52:13 pm by pbrower2a »

Florida, college poll from a school that I never heard from:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-rubio-fau-florida-poll-20150922-story.html

Carson 52%
Clinton 40%

Rubio 50%
Clinton 42%

Bush 49%
Clinton 41%

Trump 46%
Clinton 45%

Back-tracking for the Carolinas, and PPP for Florida.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,758
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: September 22, 2015, 09:43:45 pm »

The 46/45 FL number against Trump is great for her, its to totally in play against Trump.
Logged
Higgs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,616


Political Matrix
E: 6.14, S: -4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: September 22, 2015, 10:02:34 pm »

The 46/45 FL number against Trump is great for her, its to totally in play against Trump.

I wouldn't consider that great for her

The fact that she's within the margin of error against a joke like Donald Trump shows how non inevitable she is.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,758
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: September 22, 2015, 10:15:18 pm »

The last poll showed Trump up five against her.

Also, Trump wont be a joke for long when he wraps up nomination by winning SC in late Jan. Something Jeb suppose to have done.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39,462
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: September 22, 2015, 10:18:54 pm »

Also, Trump wont be a joke for long when he wraps up nomination by winning SC in late Jan.

Trump is going to win South Carolina a month before the primary there?
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,758
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: September 22, 2015, 10:26:59 pm »

Well Feb then.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: September 24, 2015, 02:32:43 pm »
« Edited: September 27, 2015, 06:45:06 am by pbrower2a »

North Carolina, Elon

52% Carson
41% Clinton

46% Bush
43% Clinton

47% Clinton
40% Trump

http://www.elon.edu/e-net/Article/121033

If this poll is valid, it suggest that the thrill may be gone with Donald Trump.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee



Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul





Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



[/quote]
Logged
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,052
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: September 24, 2015, 08:39:45 pm »

Where are the Michigan polls?
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,657
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: September 24, 2015, 08:46:46 pm »

Where are the Michigan polls?

Junk pollster. I'd like to see someone who has a track record and isn't tied to a special interest. 
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 15 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC