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Author Topic: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.  (Read 66675 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #325 on: June 28, 2016, 02:04:44 pm »

pbrower:

Trump is actually ahead in Missouri (from a Remington poll in May).

And Utah had a Trump+9 poll recently (Dan Jones).

Also, Kansas is only because of Zogby (a pollster which should probably be banned from this site, together with ARG).
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« Reply #326 on: June 28, 2016, 02:06:08 pm »
« Edited: June 28, 2016, 02:08:45 pm by TN volunteer »

I already told him about MO. His response:

Can you add the MO poll as well?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238495.0

Partisan pollster. I trust that Missouri will get polled again fairly often because of a contested Senate race.

Maybe this thread should be locked, after all. We already have the Atlas polling database.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #327 on: June 28, 2016, 06:41:07 pm »

pbrower:

Trump is actually ahead in Missouri (from a Remington poll in May).

Private pollster with no record for a special interest. Wait for another.

Quote
And Utah had a Trump+9 poll recently (Dan Jones).

But his lead is with a total under 40%. Even if it is a good poll, the data requires that I show it as a tie. I have seen polls showing Barack Obama up 37-36 in Tennessee, and he didn't get much over 37 in the Presidential election. A lead in a binary race with a total vote of less than 40%? That's inconclusive.   

Quote
Also, Kansas is only because of Zogby (a pollster which should probably be banned from this site, together with ARG).

Wait for another poll. This is the first, and it likely won't be the last.  Zogby is not a partisan poster and it has not been accused of fabricating results. Poor methodology? Maybe.
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« Reply #328 on: June 29, 2016, 09:33:43 am »
« Edited: June 29, 2016, 09:41:30 am by pbrower2a »

AZ : http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf
Trump - 44 Clinton - 40

IA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/IowaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 41 Trump - 39

NH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/NHResults616.pdf
Clinton - 43 Trump - 39

OH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/OhioResults616.pdf
Clinton - 44 Trump - 40

PA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PennsylvaniaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 46 Trump - 42

WI: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf
Clinton - 47 Trump - 38

According to CNN:

51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html   

This doesn't seem believable, way too friendly to Clinton.  Also, North Carolina is more democratic than Virginia, which doesn't seem realistic.

Michigan: D+17
Florida: D+14
Pennsylvania: D+14
North Carolina: D+10
Ohio: D+9
Virginia: D+7
Iowa: D+4


It is all consistent with an R collapse in the Presidential race. Shifting the margins between Iowa and North Carolina would make some sense.

It is also consistent with CNN hiring a pollster that doesn't have an idea of what it is doing.

Michigan at D+17, Pennsylvania at D+14, and Virginia at D+7 are not far out of range of the 2008 election. I've seen some horrible polls for Trump in Florida; in a wave election what looks like an outlier could be a reality.

But even significant cutbacks of some of these results (let us say Florida to D+4, North Carolina to D+2, and Ohio to D+3 suggest one thing: Donald Trump is not going to be President of the United States. Michigan at D+17 indicates about a 55-45 margin for Hillary Clinton in a nationwide race.  

I'm dropping an obsolete poll in Missouri.

Averaging will take place.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



Averaging in Ohio and Arizona.


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #329 on: June 29, 2016, 10:38:40 am »
« Edited: June 29, 2016, 12:04:20 pm by pbrower2a »

New Hampshire:

ARG
New Hampshire
Clinton 47%
Trump 42%
Other 4%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/nh16-1.html

New Jersey -- Not likely to cause controversy.

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2016/06/poll-clinton-has-huge-lead-over-trump-in-nj-103338
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160629/

Clinton 52
Trump 31

Clinton 44
Trump 32
Johnson 9


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #330 on: July 05, 2016, 07:41:57 pm »

pbrower:

Trump is actually ahead in Missouri (from a Remington poll in May).

And Utah had a Trump+9 poll recently (Dan Jones).

Also, Kansas is only because of Zogby (a pollster which should probably be banned from this site, together with ARG).

PPP will poll Missouri this weekend. My prediction: she lags Trump in a binary choice but wins in a Clinton-Johnson-Trump matchup. Your wait will not be long.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #331 on: July 06, 2016, 04:58:02 pm »
« Edited: July 06, 2016, 05:36:36 pm by IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi »

Quote
It is all consistent with an R collapse in the Presidential race. Shifting the margins between Iowa and North Carolina would make some sense.

Yup. Trump is done.

Minus Florida I have Clinton at 245 EVs. Trump is 80 behind her.

Trump's only winning path is through Florida. His cap is 292-245.

Clinton's cap is 454.
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #332 on: July 06, 2016, 09:38:24 pm »

How the hell is Trump consistently leading in Nevada of all places?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #333 on: July 07, 2016, 03:31:25 am »

How the hell is Trump consistently leading in Nevada of all places?

One poll from November, and nothing since.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #334 on: July 07, 2016, 03:47:01 am »
« Edited: July 07, 2016, 09:47:03 pm by pbrower2a »

California, Field Poll:



http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article88085407.html

58-28 in a binary matchup. Close to Obama levels of support in 2008 and 2012 in what will be one of the dullest states for political news this year. Obama maxed out in California twice, and if Hillary Clinton wins as Obama did in California, she is likely winning nationwide.

With this likely margin in California, Donald Trump cannot win the nationwide popular vote.

Oregon:

Clinton 46
Trump 32
Undecided 22

This is actually a state where Johnson and Stein combined can cleave off about 10%

https://icitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/OR-Weighted-Tabs-Public-1.pdf

A Vermont poll has Clinton up 15 over Trump with l3ess than 40%... but it is undeniably a three-way poll and not a binary matchup, so I am using it on the Clinton-trump-Johnson map.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.






[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #335 on: July 11, 2016, 12:17:45 pm »
« Edited: July 12, 2016, 03:43:18 pm by pbrower2a »

How the hell is Trump consistently leading in Nevada of all places?

One poll from November, and nothing since.

That's over.

   
NV-Monmouth: Clinton +4

Don't have the full link, but I saw it on twitter.

https ://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/752548412046934021


Clinton 45%
Trump 41%

GOP: Trump 88-6
DEM: Clinton 92-3
IND: Trump 39-37

Kentucky:



Look at all the undecided. Because the leader has under 40%  my system calls this a tie. For the leader a 33-28 lead is practically worthless.  

IA -- Monmouth.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_071216/
http://www.monmouth.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=40802209099

Trump 44
Clinton 42
Johnson 6
Stein 1
Other 2
Undecided 6

My system says that a lead of even 1% is valuable when one of the nominees is over 40%.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.






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« Reply #336 on: July 11, 2016, 04:57:58 pm »

lol@saying KY is tied. IIRC, you once said that polls with both candidates under 40% were useless and should be ignored.

Also, where is the Florida poll?

Tender, pls lock this thread.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #337 on: July 11, 2016, 08:03:16 pm »
« Edited: July 12, 2016, 09:38:00 am by pbrower2a »

lol@saying KY is tied. IIRC, you once said that polls with both candidates under 40% were useless and should be ignored.

Also, where is the Florida poll?

Tender, pls lock this thread.

Two junk pollsters.

Rick Scott up by 7? We have not seen that for a long time.

Besides, you can look at what I have to say of a lead with less than 40% in a binary race:

Quote
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

Eight years ago I saw a poll of Tennessee that showed Barack Obama with a 39-37 lead. 39% is very close to what Senator Obama got in Tennessee that year. I simply consider a lead of 39-37 useless in view of that experience.


 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #338 on: July 13, 2016, 08:24:04 am »
« Edited: July 13, 2016, 08:26:08 pm by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac poll of FL, OH, and PA:

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

Florida
Trump 42%
Clinton 39%

Ohio
Clinton 41%
Trump 41%

Pennsylvania
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%

Prepare to short-sell America or invest in foreign real estate should these polls reveal something about America.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/753273220200030208
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-or-even-midwest-battlegrounds-n608651

OH
Clinton 39
Trump 39

Clinton 38
Trump 35
Johnson 9
Stein 3

IA
Clinton 42
Trump 39

Clinton 37
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 36

Clinton 43
Trump 35
Johnson 8
Stein 2

July 5-10, MOE +/-3.4%

The tie with an earlier poll in Iowa is actually a 1/2% lead for Hillary Clinton. Clinton gets a lead in a three-way poll in Ohio.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.







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pbrower2a
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« Reply #339 on: July 13, 2016, 11:07:37 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2016, 08:03:07 pm by pbrower2a »

WI -- Marquette University Law School:

July 7 - July 10

Registered Voters

Clinton 43% (+1 since June)
Trump 37% (+2 since June)

Likely Voters

Clinton 45% (-1 since June)
Trump 41% (+4 since June)

The tie with an earlier poll in Iowa is actually a 1/2% lead for Hillary Clinton. Clinton gets a lead in a three-way poll in Ohio. Gravis (Clinton up 2) puts Clinton with a 1% lead.

FoX News -- CO, VA

VA:

Clinton 44, Trump 37

CO:

Clinton 44, Trump 34

KS, SurveyUSA. If you didn't like the Zogby poll, then all you had to do was to wait. 47-36 is a tepid lead for a Republican nominee in Kansas, don't you think? 

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7a998d53-af1c-4a34-996c-6de020dea785&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 8
Undecided 9

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.







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pbrower2a
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« Reply #340 on: July 15, 2016, 05:18:31 am »
« Edited: July 16, 2016, 12:15:11 am by pbrower2a »

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/753801523096788993

NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist

Quote
CO: Clinton 43, Trump 35
FL: Clinton 44, Trump 37
NC: Clinton 44, Trump 38
VA: Clinton 44, Trump 35

Poll conducted from July 5-11.

Demagogue Don needs all four of these states, and he isn't getting them according to this poll. He needs to be getting well into the forties to have a chance to win these states, and he isn't doing so. Even Q shows him stuck around 40% support.

One unanswered question with these polls is how Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are doing. The 2012 Presidential race looks increasingly like a three-way race.

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000155-ebd0-dc24-ab55-fbf97c6b0001

Florida (one more):

In a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll of 800 likely voters

Clinton 45
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Other 2
Undecided 7

White
Clinton 35
Trump 50

Latino
Clinton 53
Trump 31

Black
Clinton 80
Trump 9

Missouri, PPP:

Trump 46 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 7 - Stein 1
Trump 49 -  Clinton 37 (Parties mentioned)
Obama approval 39%
Preference between Obama and Trump  -- 42% Obama, 50% Trump 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.








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pbrower2a
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« Reply #341 on: July 15, 2016, 07:32:54 pm »
« Edited: July 16, 2016, 12:58:03 pm by pbrower2a »

For what it is worth, here is the collection of Morning Consult polls of all 50 states.



margin   saturation

30+          9
15-29       7
9-14         6
5-8           5
4              4 (usual margin of error)
1-3           2
tie            white  


Useful only in the absence of other evidence. But this said, no way is Hillary Clinton winning New Mexico by a mere 3% or Delaware by a mere 5% or Donald Trump winning Idaho by a mere 11% or Oklahoma by a mere 14%. No way, also, is Hillary Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Carolina.
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« Reply #342 on: July 16, 2016, 12:02:59 pm »

For what it is worth, here is the collection of Morning Consult polls of all 50 states.



margin   saturation

30+          9
15-29       7
9-14         6
5-8           5
4              4 (usual margin of error)
1-3           2
tie            white 


Useful only in the absence of other evidence. But this said, no way is Hillary Clinton winning New Mexico by a mere 3% or Delaware by a mere 5% or Donald Trump winning Idaho by a mere 11% or Oklahoma by a mere 14%. No way, also, is Hillary Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Dakota.

I think Maine and Georgia are off in opposite directions.  All others are plausible.
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« Reply #343 on: July 16, 2016, 01:03:38 pm »

pbrower2a, do you maybe want to add the Morning Consult 50-state poll results for the states that don't have any other polls just to fill out the map?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #344 on: July 16, 2016, 03:36:52 pm »

pbrower2a, do you maybe want to add the Morning Consult 50-state poll results for the states that don't have any other polls just to fill out the map?

I'd love to, and it would be easy enough because it involves only nine states -- except that the numbers that I have been using on the Morning Consult polls measure a margin and not "leads with". I don't have a problem with the estimates that Morning Consult has for any state other than Delaware. DC? It's not going to matter whether Hillary Clinton wins it by 40% or 85%. 

I will likely go to margin-based polling after the Conventions. I am no longer convinced that a 49-37 lead means the same as a 41-37 lead as my map legend shows. 

Maybe I will use green for Trump leads and purple for Clinton leads. Dark shades of orange look horrible on these maps.
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« Reply #345 on: July 17, 2016, 11:41:31 pm »

I'm very curious to see what kind of bump Trump gets from the convention.  I'm also very curious to see what kind of bump Hillary gets next week.  I figured this would be the best place to find out.  I haven't been around for a while...can anyone post state polls conducted with good methodologies here?  Does it help dude keep the map more accurate?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #346 on: July 18, 2016, 07:36:24 am »

I'm very curious to see what kind of bump Trump gets from the convention.  I'm also very curious to see what kind of bump Hillary gets next week.  I figured this would be the best place to find out.  I haven't been around for a while...can anyone post state polls conducted with good methodologies here?  Does it help dude keep the map more accurate?

Here's my prediction: the Republican National Convention in Cleveland is going to be messy. Some cities would be even more of a lion's den for the ideology of Donald Trump, but count on every seasoned and amateur left-leaning protester within 300 miles (which includes the whole of Ohio,  most of Indiana, southern Michigan, western Pennsylvania, western New York, and Greater Chicago showing up. If the high-priced hotels will have the political activists of the GOP, the cheap motels along the Ohio Turnpike and other superhighways will have plenty of protesters.

The Convention itself might even be dull -- but just outside... I have said all that I can say responsibly. How the polls react will depend upon who provokes whom.
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« Reply #347 on: July 24, 2016, 08:01:35 am »
« Edited: July 25, 2016, 10:34:07 am by pbrower2a »

Alabama, which will likely be one of Trump's best states:

Donald Trump 57%
Hillary Clinton 33%

http://wkrg.com/2016/07/21/trump-wins-alabama-but-some-supporters-may-not-like-him/

Georgia:

Warnings:

1. inconsistent with tracking polls that show Donald Trump tied with or leading Hillary Clinton immediately after the Reactionary National Convention.

2. One-point lead for either, so far from decisive. Both Trump and Clinton will get at least 46% of the vote in Georgia in a binary election.

3. Inconsistent with polls that generally show Hillary Clinton behind Donald Trump in Georgia.

4. Does not include Johnson.

5. Unfamiliar pollster.

Addendum: this is a partisan pollster.


http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/07/25/georgia-democrats-polling-shows-state-is-in-play-in-november/

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Undecided 16

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.







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pbrower2a
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« Reply #348 on: July 25, 2016, 07:07:12 pm »
« Edited: July 25, 2016, 07:36:34 pm by pbrower2a »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/trump-gets-modest-boost-in-ohio-after-convention.html

Ohio, PPP:

Trump: 42
Clinton: 39
Johnson: 6
Stein: 2


Trump: 45
Clinton: 45

Tie in a binary race, not changing the binary map in the least.  

This poll looks legitimate, and it suggests that Georgia is a swing state:

Georgia, WSB-TV, ABC-2 Atlanta, Landmarke Communications:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/trump-hillary-poll/411369450

Trump - 46
Clinton - 44
Johnson - 5
Stein - 3

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.








[/quote]
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« Reply #349 on: July 26, 2016, 09:36:13 pm »

I will start over with a different set of criteria for leads.  A hint: I will distinguish leads with 45% or more against  leads with less than 45%.  As the election approaches, a lead of 47-43, let alone 47-35, means much more than does a lead of 44-40. Polls will be extremely volatile during the Conventions. I am unsure of whether I will change the map for the three-way race.

I will likely lock this thread after Convention-time polls quit coming in.
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