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  Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
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Author Topic: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.  (Read 67377 times)
IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #325 on: July 06, 2016, 04:58:02 pm »
« edited: July 06, 2016, 05:36:36 pm by IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi »

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Yup. Trump is done.

Minus Florida I have Clinton at 245 EVs. Trump is 80 behind her.

Trump's only winning path is through Florida. His cap is 292-245.

Clinton's cap is 454.
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #326 on: July 06, 2016, 09:38:24 pm »

How the hell is Trump consistently leading in Nevada of all places?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #327 on: July 07, 2016, 03:31:25 am »

How the hell is Trump consistently leading in Nevada of all places?

One poll from November, and nothing since.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #328 on: July 07, 2016, 03:47:01 am »
« Edited: July 07, 2016, 09:47:03 pm by pbrower2a »

California, Field Poll:



http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article88085407.html

58-28 in a binary matchup. Close to Obama levels of support in 2008 and 2012 in what will be one of the dullest states for political news this year. Obama maxed out in California twice, and if Hillary Clinton wins as Obama did in California, she is likely winning nationwide.

With this likely margin in California, Donald Trump cannot win the nationwide popular vote.

Oregon:

Clinton 46
Trump 32
Undecided 22

This is actually a state where Johnson and Stein combined can cleave off about 10%

https://icitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/OR-Weighted-Tabs-Public-1.pdf

A Vermont poll has Clinton up 15 over Trump with l3ess than 40%... but it is undeniably a three-way poll and not a binary matchup, so I am using it on the Clinton-trump-Johnson map.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.






[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #329 on: July 11, 2016, 12:17:45 pm »
« Edited: July 12, 2016, 03:43:18 pm by pbrower2a »

How the hell is Trump consistently leading in Nevada of all places?

One poll from November, and nothing since.

That's over.

   
NV-Monmouth: Clinton +4

Don't have the full link, but I saw it on twitter.

https ://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/752548412046934021


Clinton 45%
Trump 41%

GOP: Trump 88-6
DEM: Clinton 92-3
IND: Trump 39-37

Kentucky:



Look at all the undecided. Because the leader has under 40%  my system calls this a tie. For the leader a 33-28 lead is practically worthless.  

IA -- Monmouth.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_071216/
http://www.monmouth.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=40802209099

Trump 44
Clinton 42
Johnson 6
Stein 1
Other 2
Undecided 6

My system says that a lead of even 1% is valuable when one of the nominees is over 40%.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #330 on: July 11, 2016, 08:03:16 pm »
« Edited: July 12, 2016, 09:38:00 am by pbrower2a »

lol@saying KY is tied. IIRC, you once said that polls with both candidates under 40% were useless and should be ignored.

Also, where is the Florida poll?

Tender, pls lock this thread.

Two junk pollsters.

Rick Scott up by 7? We have not seen that for a long time.

Besides, you can look at what I have to say of a lead with less than 40% in a binary race:

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Eight years ago I saw a poll of Tennessee that showed Barack Obama with a 39-37 lead. 39% is very close to what Senator Obama got in Tennessee that year. I simply consider a lead of 39-37 useless in view of that experience.


 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #331 on: July 13, 2016, 08:24:04 am »
« Edited: July 13, 2016, 08:26:08 pm by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac poll of FL, OH, and PA:

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

Florida
Trump 42%
Clinton 39%

Ohio
Clinton 41%
Trump 41%

Pennsylvania
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%

Prepare to short-sell America or invest in foreign real estate should these polls reveal something about America.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/753273220200030208
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-or-even-midwest-battlegrounds-n608651

OH
Clinton 39
Trump 39

Clinton 38
Trump 35
Johnson 9
Stein 3

IA
Clinton 42
Trump 39

Clinton 37
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 36

Clinton 43
Trump 35
Johnson 8
Stein 2

July 5-10, MOE +/-3.4%

The tie with an earlier poll in Iowa is actually a 1/2% lead for Hillary Clinton. Clinton gets a lead in a three-way poll in Ohio.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.







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« Reply #332 on: July 13, 2016, 11:07:37 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2016, 08:03:07 pm by pbrower2a »

WI -- Marquette University Law School:

July 7 - July 10

Registered Voters

Clinton 43% (+1 since June)
Trump 37% (+2 since June)

Likely Voters

Clinton 45% (-1 since June)
Trump 41% (+4 since June)

The tie with an earlier poll in Iowa is actually a 1/2% lead for Hillary Clinton. Clinton gets a lead in a three-way poll in Ohio. Gravis (Clinton up 2) puts Clinton with a 1% lead.

FoX News -- CO, VA

VA:

Clinton 44, Trump 37

CO:

Clinton 44, Trump 34

KS, SurveyUSA. If you didn't like the Zogby poll, then all you had to do was to wait. 47-36 is a tepid lead for a Republican nominee in Kansas, don't you think? 

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7a998d53-af1c-4a34-996c-6de020dea785&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 8
Undecided 9

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.







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« Reply #333 on: July 15, 2016, 05:18:31 am »
« Edited: July 16, 2016, 12:15:11 am by pbrower2a »

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/753801523096788993

NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist

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Demagogue Don needs all four of these states, and he isn't getting them according to this poll. He needs to be getting well into the forties to have a chance to win these states, and he isn't doing so. Even Q shows him stuck around 40% support.

One unanswered question with these polls is how Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are doing. The 2012 Presidential race looks increasingly like a three-way race.

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000155-ebd0-dc24-ab55-fbf97c6b0001

Florida (one more):

In a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll of 800 likely voters

Clinton 45
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Other 2
Undecided 7

White
Clinton 35
Trump 50

Latino
Clinton 53
Trump 31

Black
Clinton 80
Trump 9

Missouri, PPP:

Trump 46 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 7 - Stein 1
Trump 49 -  Clinton 37 (Parties mentioned)
Obama approval 39%
Preference between Obama and Trump  -- 42% Obama, 50% Trump 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.








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pbrower2a
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« Reply #334 on: July 15, 2016, 07:32:54 pm »
« Edited: July 16, 2016, 12:58:03 pm by pbrower2a »

For what it is worth, here is the collection of Morning Consult polls of all 50 states.



margin   saturation

30+          9
15-29       7
9-14         6
5-8           5
4              4 (usual margin of error)
1-3           2
tie            white  


Useful only in the absence of other evidence. But this said, no way is Hillary Clinton winning New Mexico by a mere 3% or Delaware by a mere 5% or Donald Trump winning Idaho by a mere 11% or Oklahoma by a mere 14%. No way, also, is Hillary Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Carolina.
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« Reply #335 on: July 16, 2016, 12:02:59 pm »

For what it is worth, here is the collection of Morning Consult polls of all 50 states.



margin   saturation

30+          9
15-29       7
9-14         6
5-8           5
4              4 (usual margin of error)
1-3           2
tie            white 


Useful only in the absence of other evidence. But this said, no way is Hillary Clinton winning New Mexico by a mere 3% or Delaware by a mere 5% or Donald Trump winning Idaho by a mere 11% or Oklahoma by a mere 14%. No way, also, is Hillary Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Dakota.

I think Maine and Georgia are off in opposite directions.  All others are plausible.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #336 on: July 16, 2016, 01:03:38 pm »

pbrower2a, do you maybe want to add the Morning Consult 50-state poll results for the states that don't have any other polls just to fill out the map?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #337 on: July 16, 2016, 03:36:52 pm »

pbrower2a, do you maybe want to add the Morning Consult 50-state poll results for the states that don't have any other polls just to fill out the map?

I'd love to, and it would be easy enough because it involves only nine states -- except that the numbers that I have been using on the Morning Consult polls measure a margin and not "leads with". I don't have a problem with the estimates that Morning Consult has for any state other than Delaware. DC? It's not going to matter whether Hillary Clinton wins it by 40% or 85%. 

I will likely go to margin-based polling after the Conventions. I am no longer convinced that a 49-37 lead means the same as a 41-37 lead as my map legend shows. 

Maybe I will use green for Trump leads and purple for Clinton leads. Dark shades of orange look horrible on these maps.
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freedomburns
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« Reply #338 on: July 17, 2016, 11:41:31 pm »

I'm very curious to see what kind of bump Trump gets from the convention.  I'm also very curious to see what kind of bump Hillary gets next week.  I figured this would be the best place to find out.  I haven't been around for a while...can anyone post state polls conducted with good methodologies here?  Does it help dude keep the map more accurate?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #339 on: July 18, 2016, 07:36:24 am »

I'm very curious to see what kind of bump Trump gets from the convention.  I'm also very curious to see what kind of bump Hillary gets next week.  I figured this would be the best place to find out.  I haven't been around for a while...can anyone post state polls conducted with good methodologies here?  Does it help dude keep the map more accurate?

Here's my prediction: the Republican National Convention in Cleveland is going to be messy. Some cities would be even more of a lion's den for the ideology of Donald Trump, but count on every seasoned and amateur left-leaning protester within 300 miles (which includes the whole of Ohio,  most of Indiana, southern Michigan, western Pennsylvania, western New York, and Greater Chicago showing up. If the high-priced hotels will have the political activists of the GOP, the cheap motels along the Ohio Turnpike and other superhighways will have plenty of protesters.

The Convention itself might even be dull -- but just outside... I have said all that I can say responsibly. How the polls react will depend upon who provokes whom.
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« Reply #340 on: July 24, 2016, 08:01:35 am »
« Edited: July 25, 2016, 10:34:07 am by pbrower2a »

Alabama, which will likely be one of Trump's best states:

Donald Trump 57%
Hillary Clinton 33%

http://wkrg.com/2016/07/21/trump-wins-alabama-but-some-supporters-may-not-like-him/

Georgia:

Warnings:

1. inconsistent with tracking polls that show Donald Trump tied with or leading Hillary Clinton immediately after the Reactionary National Convention.

2. One-point lead for either, so far from decisive. Both Trump and Clinton will get at least 46% of the vote in Georgia in a binary election.

3. Inconsistent with polls that generally show Hillary Clinton behind Donald Trump in Georgia.

4. Does not include Johnson.

5. Unfamiliar pollster.

Addendum: this is a partisan pollster.


http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/07/25/georgia-democrats-polling-shows-state-is-in-play-in-november/

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Undecided 16

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.







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pbrower2a
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« Reply #341 on: July 25, 2016, 07:07:12 pm »
« Edited: July 25, 2016, 07:36:34 pm by pbrower2a »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/trump-gets-modest-boost-in-ohio-after-convention.html

Ohio, PPP:

Trump: 42
Clinton: 39
Johnson: 6
Stein: 2


Trump: 45
Clinton: 45

Tie in a binary race, not changing the binary map in the least.  

This poll looks legitimate, and it suggests that Georgia is a swing state:

Georgia, WSB-TV, ABC-2 Atlanta, Landmarke Communications:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/trump-hillary-poll/411369450

Trump - 46
Clinton - 44
Johnson - 5
Stein - 3

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.








[/quote]
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« Reply #342 on: July 26, 2016, 09:36:13 pm »

I will start over with a different set of criteria for leads.  A hint: I will distinguish leads with 45% or more against  leads with less than 45%.  As the election approaches, a lead of 47-43, let alone 47-35, means much more than does a lead of 44-40. Polls will be extremely volatile during the Conventions. I am unsure of whether I will change the map for the three-way race.

I will likely lock this thread after Convention-time polls quit coming in.
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« Reply #343 on: July 26, 2016, 09:42:01 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2016, 11:49:24 am by pbrower2a »

Suffolk University
Pennsylvania Likely Voters
July 2016

50 Clinton 41 Trump


Outlier or the new normal? Good question. If the Republicans got a slight bounce from holding their convention in Ohio in an Ohio poll, then the Democrats might have gotten one in Pennsylvania.

I am too cautious to draw any conclusion of whether the Democrats have solved more political problems with their Convention than the Republicans did with theirs. Both solidified their bases.

Sooner Poll, Oklahoma 

53% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
7% Johnson (L)

http://newsok.com/article/5511779

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]






30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.








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pbrower2a
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« Reply #344 on: July 30, 2016, 01:03:04 pm »

First the bad news: I will be locking this thread early next week.

The Party conventions have well established what the themes of the 2016 Presidential election will be. It will be extremely difficult for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton to offer something new. Both conventions have offered much grist for campaign ads. VP selections have been made, so nobody needs to ask whether Donald Trump would do better by selecting Senator Susan Collins or whether Hillary Clinton would have done better by selecting Senator  Bernie Sanders.

What I think of the respective conventions matters not here. Yes, I am a partisan hack; I expect to do active campaigning for Democrats this fall.  Such bias will show in my commentary. Yes, I believe that the Democrats solved far more problems in their convention  than the Republicans solved in theirs -- but I will let the polls do the talking. I prefer that reality cloud my judgment than that my opinions cloud reality.

In binary races, the leading nominee should be getting over 45% in a binary matchup in a poll that really matters in any state. The margin matters, of course, but a 49-47 lead may mean more than a 44-38 lead even if the 44-38 lead is outside the usual 4% margin of error. Of course I shall continue to treat any lead with less than 40% of the vote as a tie. If anything I may begin considering any lead with less than 43% as a tie unless the leader is up by 5% or more.

The basic trick will be to use orange for a Democratic lead with less than 47% in orange instead of red and green for a Republican lead with less than 47% in a binary matchup.

Here's one way to get blank maps: take old ones, like these introducing  Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina to the maps of binary matchups against Hillary Clinton. I will reject data from discredited pollsters, from special interest groups, and the insider polls of candidates and parties.    
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina



So let us suppose that early next week I get these polling results. These are all fictional, so I am not predicting their appearance or their results. Polls taken this weekend include:

Quinnipiac:

Florida -- Clinton 44 Trump 48; Clinton 43, Trump 41, Johnson 12
Ohio  -- Clinton 43, Trump 46; Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 15
Pennsylvania -- Clinton 47, Trump 40; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 5

UAW "Give Working America a Break Campaign"

Michigan  -- Clinton 54, Trump 41; Clinton 51, Trump 32, Johnson 14

NAACP, Martin Luther King Institute:

Georgia -- Clinton 48  Trump 41; Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 9

Loof-Lirpa Polling:

Colorado -- Clinton 45, Trump 45

Energy Citizens (front of the American Petroleum Institute)

Texas -- Trump 57 Clinton 41; Trump 51, Clinton 40, Trump 8

Research 2000:

Minnesota -- Clinton 55. Trump 43; Clinton 53. Trump 39, Johnson 7

Marquette University  Law School

Wisconsin Clinton 55. Trump 42; Clinton 54, Trump 36, Johnson 11

PPP, North Carolina --

Clinton 47, Trump 45; Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 9

Marist

Connecticut -- Clinton 56 Trump 41; Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 5
New York -- Clinton 62 Trump 35;  Clinton 59. Trump 33, Johnson 7
Virginia -- Clinton 44, Trump 39 ; Clinton 44, Trump 35, Johnson 18

Selzer

Iowa -- Clinton 49, Trump 45,; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson  11

Nebraska (binary only) -- at-large Trump 54-44
NE-01 Johnson lead
NE-02 tie at 45
NE-03 Trump 62 Clinton 30

WMUR-TV

New Hampshire -- Clinton 47 Trump 45

Wyatt Earp High School, Tombstone, Arizona:

Arizona -- Trump 46, Clinton 42

National Right-to-Life Committee:


Massachusetts:

Clinton 51, Trump 46.

It's obvious that a high school lacks the professional competence necessary for conducting a poll. Research 2000 is a fraud. We can rule out polls involving the UAW, the NAACP, the front of the American Petroleum Institute (Big Oil), and the National Right-to-Life Committee for being associated with special interest groups or advocacy organizations. "Loof-Lirpa Polling" appears only on April Fool's Day. The University of Elkhart does not exist.    The others are good.

So what are we left with?


Quinnipiac:

Florida -- Clinton 44 Trump 48; Clinton 43, Trump 41, Johnson 12
Ohio  -- Clinton 43, Trump 46; Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 15
Pennsylvania -- Clinton 47, Trump 40; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 5

UAW "Give Working America a Break Campaign"

Michigan  -- Clinton 54, Trump 41; Clinton 51, Trump 32, Johnson 14

NAACP, Martin Luther King Institute:

Georgia -- Clinton 48  Trump 41; Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 9

Loof-Lirpa Polling:

Colorado -- Clinton 45, Trump 45

Energy Citizens (front of the American Petroleum Institute)

Texas -- Trump 57 Clinton 41; Trump 51, Clinton 40, Trump 8

University of Elkhart:

Indiana: Trump 60, Clinton 37; Trump 53, Clinton 37, Johnson 5

Research 2000:

Minnesota -- Clinton 55. Trump 43; Clinton 53. Trump 39, Johnson 7


Marquette University  Law School

Wisconsin Clinton 55. Trump 42; Clinton 54, Trump 36, Johnson 11

PPP, North Carolina --

Clinton 45, Trump 47; Clinton 44, Trump 40, Johnson 9

Marist

Connecticut -- Clinton 54 Trump 41; Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 5
New York -- Clinton 62 Trump 35;  Clinton 59. Trump 33, Johnson 7
Virginia -- Clinton 44, Trump 39 ; Clinton 44, Trump 35, Johnson 18

Selzer

Iowa -- Clinton 49, Trump 43,; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson  11
Nebraska (binary only) -- at-large Trump 54-44
NE-01 Trump 52 Clinton 45
NE-02 tie at 45
NE-03 Trump 62 Clinton 30

WMUR-TV

New Hampshire -- Clinton 47 Trump 45

Wyatt Earp High School, Tombstone, Arizona:

Arizona -- Trump 46, Clinton 42

University of Elkhart:

Indiana: Trump 60, Clinton 37; Trump 53, Clinton 37, Johnson 5

National Right-to-Life Committee:

Massachusetts:

Clinton 51, Trump 46.


 




Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
47-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
47-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-46%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-46%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color.


I have no idea of what I will do with the three-way polls. Simply start over?
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« Reply #345 on: July 30, 2016, 02:57:58 pm »

Why are you looking the thread - does that mean you're only doing three way maps? I'm very confused.
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« Reply #346 on: July 30, 2016, 04:35:55 pm »
« Edited: August 05, 2016, 08:09:16 am by pbrower2a »

Why are you looking the thread - does that mean you're only doing three way maps? I'm very confused.

I want to show the difference between someone leading while being close to 50% and leading while not being so close to 50%.

Earlier polls (the ones in this thread) will soon be only of archival interest. Later polls will show post-Convention reality.  

I am not sure that I need to do something different with the three-way polls.  I may wish to show them with the binary matchups. But even there I will need to show winning scenarios when  the leader and one half the Johnson polling combine to go over 5-%. If on election night the totals show Trump 46.22% and Johnson at 7.58%, then Trump wins the state in question. I may need to change the legend for three-way polls to reflect the new conditions of victory and progress toward or regress from them.  

My read on the Conventions may be flawed, but I am satisfied that both Trump and Clinton went into their respective Conventions with big problems to solve. Both Trump and Clinton had to solve most of them to get elected.  Both Parties pinned themselves down on issues, leaving room for attacks on their positions.

We have yet to see how such manifests itself in the polls. I intend to let the polls speak for themselves on my map. It is still too early to answer the question of who is in better shape in which to win the Presidency.

Barring a discrediting scandal, an economic meltdown for which Republicans can successfully  hold Democrats responsible, or some military or diplomatic disaster, what we see in the next two weeks is likely to stick. Neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton is in a position to back away from what they said or their surrogates said at their respective conventions. The conventions set up the material for negative ads.    
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #347 on: July 31, 2016, 01:30:42 pm »

Locked now. Polls from last week go into limbo, and except for two polls from Alabama and Oklahoma (the two states get polled rarely and the results are unlikely to move; their results are unlikely to cause any controversy) I start with a blanks state for binary polls.  

The polls to go into the new thread (Post-Convention Polls) are from this weekend or later.  Keep this thread as an archive.   
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