Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.

[LLR]

Well at least if the Dems win KS, MO, and AZ while losing FL all their states will border each other, am I right guys?

[pbrower2a]

Can you add the MO poll as well?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238495.0

Partisan pollster. I trust that Missouri will get polled again fairly often because of a contested Senate race.

[pbrower2a]

Utah:
   
   
Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play


Clinton: 35
Trump: 35
Johnson: 13


https://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/315450242/Salt-Lake-Tribune-President-Poll

Hard to believe. Don't like it? Just wait for another poll.

...This poll consists solely of a three-way poll. How long will it be before those are the only polls that we see? Yes, I take Gary Johnson seriously.

...If the Kansas and Utah polls are valid, but the recent polls of Florida, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania were also valid, then  we may be seeing a Trump collapse.

California, Los Angeles Times:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-california-exit-poll-20160613-snap-story.html


Clinton: 61
Trump: 31

If Hillary Clinton has 192 electoral votes locked up officially before 11PM Eastern Time on November 8, then the seconds leading to the announcement of poll closings on the West Coast will be a countdown to the formal announcement of the first female President of the United States.

Virginia, PPP

48-45 without third parties
42-39 with third parties (I believe Gary Johnson is at 9%)

This was reported on the Rachel Maddow show and PPP says they will put out the PDF of the full poll tomorrow


Wisconsin, Marquette University Law School

Clinton 46
Trump 37

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/743131478964502528

Governor Scott Walker is very unpopular too (39-57), so the GOP is toxic in Wisconsin. President Obama gets an above-50 approval rating here, which is very good for a President in his eighth and final year.  

Iowa, PPP, Des Moines Register

Clinton 44, Trump 41. Nothing on third-party nominees. First poll of any kind in Iowa in a long time.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/16/poll-shows-clinton-grassley-leading-iowa/85947420/


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

It's about time for a Quinnipiac FLOP (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) or CIVic display (Colorado, Iowa, Virginia.

PPP has been polling Virginia early this week. That should be interesting. 

[pbrower2a]

We seem to be seeing Obama-era leads trimmed, but states in which Obama got clobbered becoming much closer. Hillary Clinton does not excite the Democratic base as strongly as Barack Obama does -- but she does not rile the Republican base as Obama did.

Face it -- Barack Obama in 2008 was a masterful strategist as a campaigner. 

[pbrower2a]

Private pollster, Arizona: Trump 42, Clinton 39.

... very weak for a Republican in a state that has not gone for a Democrat in a true binary election since 1948. (Bill Clinton won the state with the aid of Ross Perot in 1996).

Washington, PPP:

Clinton 49, Trump 37. I doubt that anyone can dispute this estimate. No Johnson votes were suggested. 


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

LOL@pbrower including that AZ poll from a "private pollster".

When it corroborates existing data I use it without much concern.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac FLOP:

Florida: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%
Ohio: Clinton 40%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 42%, Trump 41%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2359

("FLOP" refers to the states polled)


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

[Wisconsin+17]

I believe if we throw all the unpolled states, and Kansas to Trump, Hillary still wins. So she has a presumptive victory.

[pbrower2a]

I believe if we throw all the unpolled states, and Kansas to Trump, Hillary still wins. So she has a presumptive victory.

I would definitely not throw unpolled Delaware, Hawaii, Vermont, or the District of Columbia to Trump! Kansas and Utah could be fluke polls (I missed a poll for Utah).

It took me a long time in 2008 to believe that Virginia could be going for Barack Obama, as a state that had gone for the Democratic nominee only once since 1948, and then only in the LBJ blowout, was by all reasonable thought unlikely to go Democratic in anything near a close election. 2008 results proved that caution excessive.

Common wisdom suggests that Hillary Clinton will win all states and DC  that have gone to every Democratic nominee for President beginning in 1992 even in a bare loss (242 EV). She could still lose if she won only the states that have gone for the Democratic nominee in five of the last Presidential elections (New Mexico looks like a reasonably sure win, but Iowa and New Hampshire aren't quite so certain as even Pennsylvania). Such states put her at 257 electoral votes.

Maybe Donald Trump gets some political benefit from his involvement in the casino industry from Nevada voters; maybe he doesn't. I question whether working people in any industry put the strength of their businesses above their own welfare (wages and working conditions) at the polls unless their business is in trouble.

There are four simple ways at this point for Hillary Clinton to win the Presidency at this point, the same ones applicable in 2012 for Barack Obama:

1. Colorado and Nevada together -- large Hispanic populations that Trump has insulted.
2. Virginia, a state drifting Democratic.
3. Ohio, an R-leaning state that last voted 'wrong' in 1960.
4. Florida. Which poll do you believe?

That implies 15 (to 272), 13 (to 270), 18 (to 275), or 29 (to 286) electoral votes. A random chance of one in four of those four different states or combination of states (Colorado and Nevada will likely vote together) in the manner of coin flips would give Hillary Clinton one chance in 16 of losing the Presidential election.

By random chance, Donald Trump has slightly more than a 3% chance of winning the Presidency.

What of other states? North Carolina (15) would also work -- but Hillary Clinton does not win North Carolina without also winning Virginia. So would Georgia (16), but she wins Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina before winning Georgia. Arizona (12) and either Nevada, Colorado, or the Second Congressional District of Nebraska puts Hillary Clinton over the top -- but she is not winning Arizona without  winning both Colorado and Nevada. Neither Indiana (11) nor Missouri (10), let alone Kansas (6), is enough by itself to win the Presidency... but she is not winning Indiana without winning Ohio, or Missouri without winning Ohio and Virginia, both winning conditions.  There just aren't that many states analogous to Kansas in its demographics, so if Kansas goes to Hillary Clinton such might not matter anyway. The closest analogues to Kansas are the Dakotas and Nebraska... Kansas would be a good state to pull from the Republican Party.

So grouping the states:

Tier 1: 1992-2004 "Blue Wall"+ New Mexico   247
Tier 2: IA and NH (10)  257                                  
Tier 3: CO/NV, VA, OH, FL  (any of which wins for Hillary Clinton) 332  
Tier 4: NC, GA, MO, AZ, NE-02, IN, KS    403

Beyond this? utter collapse of Donald Trump as a candidate.
        

  

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, by a pollster about whom I know nothing.

Conducted 6/20, MOE +/- 3.01%
Arizona, unknown pollster.

Clinton 46.5%
Trump 42.2%
Third party candidate 5.8%

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-2A45CA0283AA87B8

Don't like it? Wait for another poll.



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

[Wisconsin+17]

Clinton's presumptive lead (minus Kansas) is 315-223.

Clinton's actual lead - minus states where she leads but within the MOE but giving Trump everything:

251-209. That doesn't include Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware and Hawaii as they have not been polled.

With these four as solid democrat, Clinton is up to 265.

All Clinton needs to have an actual lead in the polls is to win one of:

VA, OH, MO, AZ, IA, or PA. She just needs *one* of these, and any of these will do.

[pbrower2a]

Indeed, I am looking at this Presidential elections as one in which independent or Third Party candidates can give a huge advantage to one side or the other. This time the Libertarian candidacy can attract more orthodox Republicans who consider Donald Trump too risky for their tastes. This can offset the difference in the level of perceived competence as a campaigner between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. 

A Third-Party nominee who gets 10% of the vote in a state reduces the plurality necessary for winning the state. In a nearly-binary election, third-party nominees who garner exactly 2% of the vote make it possible for a winner of the state to get by with 49.01% of the vote while the loser get 48.99% of the vote. The prospect of such by no means definitive even a week before the election, but it fits the legal definition of winning the election. But give the third-party nominee 10% of the vote, and 46% wins.

Hillary Clinton may have a ceiling of 47% of the vote in Arizona, which no Democrat has won more than half the raw vote in since 1948. But let Gary Johnson get 6.61% of the raw vote in Arizona (which John Anderson got nationwide in 1980), and 47% wins Arizona. Let Gary Johnson fare as well  in Arizona as John Anderson did in 1980 (8.81%), and Hillary Clinton will need 45.1% of the popular vote in Arizona to win the state.

Obama got 44.85% of the popular vote in Arizona in 2012 despite doing practically no campaigning there. That is one of the better performances by a Democratic nominee for President in Arizona since 1948. He got 44.91% of the vote in 2008 in Arizona, which is very good against a Favorite Son.  But know well -- Mitt Romney did nothing to rile up the large Hispanic (mostly Mexican-American) vote in 2012. Donald Trump is far more toxic. Mexican-Americans have never experienced the animus that blacks have experienced, and many conservative Republicans have family relationships (in-laws or potential in-laws) with Mexican-Americans. Donald Trump or an in-law with whom you have some respect? 

Donald Trump has stirred up bigotry that does not exist, whether through design or incompetence. It stands to hurt his campaign in Arizona.   

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

Head-to-head, Trump vs. Clinton.

First the good news for Donald Trump: He leads Clinton by 2% in a binary contest.

Now for the bad news:

1. Being ahead by 2 in North Carolina by a Republican is not enough for winning nationally.  He needs to win the state by about 5% top have a real chance of winning the 2016 election nationwide.

2. The race that really counts is the three-way race between Clinton, Johnson, and Trump. Trump is tied in North Carolina, for which there is no good compensation.

Head to Head:
Trump - 48%
Clinton - 46%

4 Person Race:
Clinton - 43%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 2%
Undecided - 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/presidential-race-knotted-in-nc-senate-race-close.html

[Wisconsin+17]

He's down in AZ, PA, and MO. and needs all three just to stay level. Trump's in big trouble.

[pbrower2a]

Maine, U-New Hampshire

Hillary Clinton is up 7 overall in the state but nearly tied in the Second Congressional District.
Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in a new Maine poll from the Portland Press Herald, but both are deeply unpopular and Trump is within striking distance in the state’s northern half.

The poll doesn’t tell us much new about the 2016 race for the White House in Maine: Public sentiment, as measured by the new poll, barely moved since another March poll, but while the Democrat should be favored, Trump can’t be counted out to win at least one of the state’s four Electoral College votes.

Maine allocates two Electoral College votes to the overall winner and one each for the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. A candidate who loses Maine’s overall vote could walk away with one Electoral College vote if he or she garnered a majority in one of the two congressional districts although that has never happened.

In the more rural and conservative 2nd Congressional District, it appears Trump has an opening this year.

Statewide, Clinton received 42 percent of support to Trump’s 35 percent in the poll of more than 609 Mainers. Another 19 percent said they’d vote for another candidate and 4 percent were undecided.

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2016/06/25/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-maine-but-race-tied-in-2nd-district/

Arkansas -- Hendrix College, Talk Business

Q: If the 2016 election were held today and your choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

36%   Hillary Clinton
47%   Donald Trump
8%     Gary Johnson
9%     Don’t Know

Barack Obama is still a big drain on any possibility of any Democrat6 winning in Arkansas except where the population is majority-black. Even as his approval ratings go into the fifties, his approval is about 33% in Arkansas.

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/06/tbp-hendrix-poll-trump-holds-lead-over-clinton-in-arkansas/

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

[pbrower2a]

He's down in AZ, PA, and MO. and needs all three just to stay level. Trump's in big trouble.

It gets worse if you are a Republican.  

CBS/YouGov, CO/FL/NC/WI. Likely voters, which usually expands to the benefit of Democrats in a Presidential year.



I am averaging an earlier poll for North Carolina which shows Hillary Clinton behind by an equal level.



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.

[pbrower2a]

Arkansas should be blue on the map, not red.

Correction made promptly. 

[pbrower2a]

Texas, UT-Austin

Trump 41
Clinton 33
Other 19
Don't know 8

Trump 39
Clinton 32
Johnson 7
Other 14
Don't know 8

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/university-texas-texas-politics-project-poll-shows-trump-leading-clinton-amidst-signs-disunity

Not that I trust any Texas poll due to the built-in difficulties of polling the state. The 8% lead is very weak.  In recent years Texas suburbs have been very strongly Republican. What distinguishes these suburbs from older suburbs of Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, and even San Francisco is that Texas suburbs are newer and have yet to have the great costs of maintenance that one associates with older infrastructure. Demolition of tract houses with their replacement by apartment complexes, a commonplace act with 70-year-old tract houses at their useful lives (those are post-WWII houses associated with returning war veterans, and those houses are now obsolete if not in poor shape) implies needs for the improvement of highways and sewers and expansion of waste-treatment facilities. Texas suburbs do not yet have those problems, so right-wing pols can still flourish there. See also Georgia and Arizona.

Republicans from Reagan on (Carter was the last Democrat to win Texas as a Democratic nominee -- forty years ago) have well fit Texas. Trump may be pushing the line.       


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.





[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

  


AZ : http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf
Trump - 44 Clinton - 40

IA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/IowaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 41 Trump - 39

NH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/NHResults616.pdf
Clinton - 43 Trump - 39

OH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/OhioResults616.pdf
Clinton - 44 Trump - 40

PA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PennsylvaniaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 46 Trump - 42

WI: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf
Clinton - 47 Trump - 38    


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Averaging in Ohio and Arizona.


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.

[Tender Branson]

pbrower:

Trump is actually ahead in Missouri (from a Remington poll in May).

And Utah had a Trump+9 poll recently (Dan Jones).

Also, Kansas is only because of Zogby (a pollster which should probably be banned from this site, together with ARG).

[pbrower2a]

pbrower:

Trump is actually ahead in Missouri (from a Remington poll in May).

Private pollster with no record for a special interest. Wait for another.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

But his lead is with a total under 40%. Even if it is a good poll, the data requires that I show it as a tie. I have seen polls showing Barack Obama up 37-36 in Tennessee, and he didn't get much over 37 in the Presidential election. A lead in a binary race with a total vote of less than 40%? That's inconclusive.   

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait for another poll. This is the first, and it likely won't be the last.  Zogby is not a partisan poster and it has not been accused of fabricating results. Poor methodology? Maybe.

[pbrower2a]

AZ : http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf
Trump - 44 Clinton - 40

IA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/IowaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 41 Trump - 39

NH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/NHResults616.pdf
Clinton - 43 Trump - 39

OH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/OhioResults616.pdf
Clinton - 44 Trump - 40

PA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PennsylvaniaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 46 Trump - 42

WI: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf
Clinton - 47 Trump - 38

According to CNN:

51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html   

This doesn't seem believable, way too friendly to Clinton.  Also, North Carolina is more democratic than Virginia, which doesn't seem realistic.

Michigan: D+17
Florida: D+14
Pennsylvania: D+14
North Carolina: D+10
Ohio: D+9
Virginia: D+7
Iowa: D+4

It is all consistent with an R collapse in the Presidential race. Shifting the margins between Iowa and North Carolina would make some sense.

It is also consistent with CNN hiring a pollster that doesn't have an idea of what it is doing.

Michigan at D+17, Pennsylvania at D+14, and Virginia at D+7 are not far out of range of the 2008 election. I've seen some horrible polls for Trump in Florida; in a wave election what looks like an outlier could be a reality.

But even significant cutbacks of some of these results (let us say Florida to D+4, North Carolina to D+2, and Ohio to D+3 suggest one thing: Donald Trump is not going to be President of the United States. Michigan at D+17 indicates about a 55-45 margin for Hillary Clinton in a nationwide race.  

I'm dropping an obsolete poll in Missouri.

Averaging will take place.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Averaging in Ohio and Arizona.


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire:

ARG
New Hampshire
Clinton 47%
Trump 42%
Other 4%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/nh16-1.html

New Jersey -- Not likely to cause controversy.

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2016/06/poll-clinton-has-huge-lead-over-trump-in-nj-103338
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160629/

Clinton 52
Trump 31

Clinton 44
Trump 32
Johnson 9


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.

[pbrower2a]

pbrower:

Trump is actually ahead in Missouri (from a Remington poll in May).

And Utah had a Trump+9 poll recently (Dan Jones).

Also, Kansas is only because of Zogby (a pollster which should probably be banned from this site, together with ARG).

PPP will poll Missouri this weekend. My prediction: she lags Trump in a binary choice but wins in a Clinton-Johnson-Trump matchup. Your wait will not be long.