Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. (user search)
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  Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.  (Read 71684 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« on: August 30, 2015, 07:24:42 AM »

I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I was going to wait until Wednesday to show any new polls. But I could edit the Clinton-Trump map  to remove the numbers of electoral votes and add in a shade for West Virginia to prove someone wrong about my bias.

It might be tempting when a state not recently polled appears. I would do that for Georgia.   

This is off-topic, but you can't be surprised that people call you a hack when you're convinced that Roy Blunt is toast in 2016 but Michael Bennet is going to win easily because it's a presidential year, even though his approval ratings are about the same as Blunt's.

Michael Bennett will win because Gov Hickenlooper has a special connection to Latino voters; won in a GOP wave.

ROY Blunt will lose because Chris Koster; the Attny Gen in MO isnt a dead duck like GOP presumed he would be due Nixon. He is close enough to win GOV. Thus; Kander riding his coattails.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2015, 10:48:08 AM »

Can't wait til FL poll against Trump, email controversy will not go away entirely but its importance is going to be diminished. There is no smoking gun.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2015, 09:43:45 PM »

The 46/45 FL number against Trump is great for her, its to totally in play against Trump.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2015, 10:15:18 PM »

The last poll showed Trump up five against her.

Also, Trump wont be a joke for long when he wraps up nomination by winning SC in late Jan. Something Jeb suppose to have done.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2015, 10:26:59 PM »

Well Feb then.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2015, 12:10:19 PM »

If the GOP win MN, it will really be over, MN is a green state like OR, and have a high concentration of Timbers in the outline areas of St Paul. But rhe GOP is struggling in Va, and the state as well as the country will vote Dem, as long as Trump is nominated.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2015, 06:55:28 AM »
« Edited: November 19, 2015, 06:59:17 AM by OC »

Clinton obviously is in a tight race right now, but Carson & Rubio are ahead right now. I doubt Trump has pulled ahead. Clinton is probably headed for a close election. But, Trump who is weak on immigration provides that opening for a 272 or more electoral vote margin.

MN, like OR, has closer than expected margins, but she will win it.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2015, 02:22:44 PM »

Cant wait til PPP start polling again, NV, CO & Iowa, take the QU bias out, and we know NH & Pa are 51/49 Dem states.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2016, 03:04:20 AM »

Even if Trump will lose, which, I think he will, 272-266 or 303 electors, he probably wont win, but should a wave develop, these map will become more realistic.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2016, 11:49:17 AM »

With Va, Trump is a terrible fit, and Dems will win it, along with NH & Pa
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2016, 03:26:53 AM »

If indeed this is a 272-266, not a 303 or 332 election, MN & MI are battleground states and will vote to right of WI, like 51/49, instead by 6, like they usually do. The same with Pa, which is showing, a closer than expected race.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2016, 10:42:24 AM »

Clinton has lost grond in Appalachian, she will win CO, NV, NH & Pa
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2016, 01:24:14 PM »

FL and Ohio are tilting R. Its gonna be a close electiom as CO, NV, Pa, Iowa & Pa decision
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2016, 10:20:39 PM »

Bernie Sanders isnt gonna win nomination. He overperformed in GE and underperformed in primaries. I wished we had a reasonable alternative and Biden won
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2016, 11:11:13 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2016, 11:14:41 PM by Da-Jon »

I know its early, but I can say that if there is a Democratic House majority , and the one person who can lose TX is Trump, but that is down the line and thats an if, and Castro would be the Veep. But, polls like this, it can happen to Trump.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2016, 07:45:59 AM »

The Ceiling of Clinton for a House Majority is MO, AZ, GA or TX going Dem. But, its based on a Dem House, as I stated many times before.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2016, 11:56:51 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2016, 12:01:19 AM by Da-Jon »

QU generic ballot six Point lead is there for a House and Senate majority. Six or Seven seat, not 4-5 seat Senate gain will give Dems the House, the Dems must put that into reality late. But, Trump will cause more GOP congressmen to fall in Latino districts, otherwise that would be safe


But, if the GOP added 9 seats in 2014, Dems  can win 6/7 with Romney map plus more.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2016, 03:41:45 PM »

I dont believe that Blunt poll for a second. If Koster can win, a Kander victory is plausible, if Clinton comes close enough in MO.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2016, 12:03:44 PM »

AZ is gonna flip. Graham who has come out against Trump and McCain who refuses to endose Trump spell volumes
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