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Author Topic: WV-Orion Strategies: Generic Republican leads Clinton by 32 points (!)  (Read 3885 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: August 27, 2015, 08:35:02 pm »

If in the 2016 General Election for President, your choices were Hillary Clinton and a Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?

Clinton: 26%
Republican candidate: 58%

In the 2016 General Election for President, would you likely vote for a Democratic or Republican Candidate?

Democratic: 28%
Republican: 52%

If in the 2016 General Election for President, your choices were Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Clinton: 30%
Trump: 53%
Undecided: 17%

http://www.statejournal.com/story/29892754/survey-wv-residents-likely-to-pick-trump-over-clinton-in-2016
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2015, 08:39:44 pm »

Ahh, West Virginia
* darthebearnc sighs
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JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2015, 08:40:48 pm »

Hahahahahahaha

Yeah, West Virginia's Republican trend is due to Obama. Right.
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Bigby
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« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2015, 08:43:49 pm »

Looks like the Democrats can't claim racism with WV. The trend towards the GOP technically began with Bush in 2000 anyway.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2015, 08:46:50 pm »

Quote
Partisan registration among respondents was 52 percent Democratic, 34 percent Republican and 14 percent Independent, according to Orion.

Yeah... so much for Hillary making WV competitive or being a better fit for the state than Obama. Roll Eyes
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2015, 09:01:55 pm »

Again... who are these people?
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« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2015, 09:06:26 pm »

For comparison, Romney won West Virginia 62-35.

It's not really a big deal. But if she's doing just as bad as Obama in West Virginia, that isn't good news for her in Appalachian swing states, like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2015, 09:09:47 pm »

Again... who are these people?

A fairly common WV pollster. I don't know much about them but they did get the 2010 senate race right. I'm having trouble finding polling from more recent races.

Regardless, I think we all knew WV wasn't going to be close.
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« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2015, 09:13:00 pm »

For comparison, Romney won West Virginia 62-35.

It's not really a big deal. But if she's doing just as bad as Obama in West Virginia, that isn't good news for her in Appalachian swing states, like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina.

North Carolina, sure.
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« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2015, 09:18:22 pm »

If WV is like this, I doubt AR will be competitive either.
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« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2015, 09:20:21 pm »

If WV is like this, I doubt AR will be competitive either.

AR has just completely transitioned, like WV has, to be more like TN, KY than OH or PA.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2015, 09:26:49 pm »

Again... who are these people?

A fairly common WV pollster. I don't know much about them but they did get the 2010 senate race right. I'm having trouble finding polling from more recent races.

Regardless, I think we all knew WV wasn't going to be close.

Well, pbrower2a still predicts a Clinton win in WV, KY and KS.
And no, "we" all didn't know that it wasn't going to be close.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?;topic=216236.0
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166588.0
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2015, 09:37:24 pm »

Again... who are these people?

A fairly common WV pollster. I don't know much about them but they did get the 2010 senate race right. I'm having trouble finding polling from more recent races.

Regardless, I think we all knew WV wasn't going to be close.

Well, pbrower2a still predicts a Clinton win in WV, KY and KS.
And no, "we" all didn't know that it wasn't going to be close.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?;topic=216236.0
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166588.0

In Atlas's defense, one of those threads was from 2012 and the one with the poll shows the Dems getting destroyed in these three.
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« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2015, 09:52:44 pm »

This was a DUKAKIS state, making those numbers even more embarrassing. I honestly think she'll do worse than Obama in WV.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2015, 09:59:28 pm by madelka »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2015, 09:57:42 pm »

Looks like the Democrats can't claim racism with WV. The trend towards the GOP technically began with Bush in 2000 anyway.

It began much earlier than that. I'm almost certain that it began in 1992.
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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2015, 10:02:20 pm »

Again... who are these people?

Coal loving, EPA hating white people without a future basically. A huge percentage of them are seniors as well. Pretty much noone (young) is voluntarily moving to West Virginia these days, that should tell you all you'd need to know. It's the least desireable of the 50 US states these days. Even Mississippi is now more attractive for young people, and so is North Dakota (obviously, due to the oil rush).
« Last Edit: August 27, 2015, 10:05:42 pm by eric82oslo »Logged

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« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2015, 10:09:42 pm »

Again... who are these people?

Coal loving, EPA hating white people without a future basically. A huge percentage of them are seniors as well. Pretty much noone (young) is voluntarily moving to West Virginia these days, that should tell you all you'd need to know. It's the least desireable of the 50 US states these days. Even Mississippi is now more attractive for young people, and so is North Dakota (obviously, due to the oil rush).

I think he's asking about the pollster.
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« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2015, 10:15:09 pm »

West Virginia's been long gone for Democrats since 2004. Even if Hillary doesn't lose it by 32 percent, I doubt she'll come within 20 points of the Republican. I've always thought that these "Candidate X is a good/bad fit for State Y" arguments are overly simplistic. Hillary won't significantly overperform Obama in West Virginia, Arkansas, or Kentucky (unless she wins in a landslide), and she won't significantly underperform Obama in Colorado (unless she loses badly.)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2015, 10:16:08 pm »

Again... who are these people?

A fairly common WV pollster. I don't know much about them but they did get the 2010 senate race right. I'm having trouble finding polling from more recent races.

Regardless, I think we all knew WV wasn't going to be close.

West Virginia polls generally overpoll Democrats, so this is even worse for Hillary.
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« Reply #19 on: August 27, 2015, 10:19:15 pm »

West Virginia's been long gone for Democrats since 2004. Even if Hillary doesn't lose it by 32 percent, I doubt she'll come within 20 points of the Republican. I've always thought that these "Candidate X is a good/bad fit for State Y" arguments are overly simplistic. Hillary won't significantly overperform Obama in West Virginia, Arkansas, or Kentucky (unless she wins in a landslide), and she won't significantly underperform Obama in Colorado (unless she loses badly.)

Depends on your definition of significant. The state going from a 5 point D win to a 2 or 3 point R win, which I think is a reasonable CO result even if Hillary wins nationwide, seems pretty significant to me.

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« Reply #20 on: August 27, 2015, 10:27:21 pm »

West Virginia's been long gone for Democrats since 2004. Even if Hillary doesn't lose it by 32 percent, I doubt she'll come within 20 points of the Republican. I've always thought that these "Candidate X is a good/bad fit for State Y" arguments are overly simplistic. Hillary won't significantly overperform Obama in West Virginia, Arkansas, or Kentucky (unless she wins in a landslide), and she won't significantly underperform Obama in Colorado (unless she loses badly.)

Depends on your definition of significant. The state going from a 5 point D win to a 2 or 3 point R win, which I think is a reasonable CO result even if Hillary wins nationwide, seems pretty significant to me.



Except that I highly doubt that will happen. If Hillary wins by about the same margin as Obama '12, I think she wins Colorado by about the same amount as Obama. Maybe a bit less (2 or 3), maybe even a bit more, due to demographic changes. My point was that I don't buy the whole "Hillary is a good/bad fit for xxxx", and this applies to Colorado as well.
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« Reply #21 on: August 27, 2015, 10:58:48 pm »

As muon pointed out in another thread, the movement of the Dems from a "labor" agenda to an "urban" agenda, which includes environmentalism and gun control emphases, have resulted in Democrats' decimation in the Mountain State (and improved prospects in VA/CO).
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« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2015, 11:13:45 pm »

As a Democrat, I would rather have Virginia than West Virginia on my side.

WV -- aging population, unattractive economic conditions, dying industries, and most likely a shrinking population.
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« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2015, 11:31:13 pm »

This is truly shocking. I though Hillary was going to be competitive here! /s

Alright folks, we all knew this would happen, let's move on.
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« Reply #24 on: August 28, 2015, 12:53:53 am »

Oh my god. This state may be even more Republican than Oklahoma! At this rate, I consider Manchin vulnerable, especially if a Democrat wins in 2016.

But I would question the liability of this poll. It had Sanders and Clinton close.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2015, 12:56:50 am by ElectionsGuy »Logged
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