Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 07, 2019, 03:57:43 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (Primary) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  WV-Orion Strategies: Generic Republican leads Clinton by 32 points (!)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: WV-Orion Strategies: Generic Republican leads Clinton by 32 points (!)  (Read 4189 times)
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46,682


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: August 28, 2015, 01:37:51 am »

As muon pointed out in another thread, the movement of the Dems from a "labor" agenda to an "urban" agenda, which includes environmentalism and gun control emphases, have resulted in Democrats' decimation in the Mountain State (and improved prospects in VA/CO).

Well, that begs the question, how would Sanders do?
Logged
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,712


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: August 28, 2015, 09:14:20 am »


Coal loving, EPA hating white people without a future basically. A huge percentage of them are seniors as well. Pretty much noone (young) is voluntarily moving to West Virginia these days, that should tell you all you'd need to know. It's the least desireable of the 50 US states these days. Even Mississippi is now more attractive for young people, and so is North Dakota (obviously, due to the oil rush).

THIS is the reason why Democratic presidential candidates can't win in WV anymore.

Indeed. I know one guy in West Virginia who was planning on voting for Hillary, until he saw an anonymous Swedish person criticize his state on an obscure political forum, so he decided to vote for Walker instead.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,510
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: August 28, 2015, 09:19:25 am »

There are still militant unionists in West Virginia -- but the coal barons have been successful in breaking unions and the heritage of militant unions hostile to the GOP.

Want a job in West Virginia? Stay clear of a labor union. 
Logged
King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,410
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: August 28, 2015, 11:01:10 am »

Losing Lean D WV to Safe R would be bad, but they flipped VA from Safe R to Lean D in the process which is a net gain.
Logged
DemPGH
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,769
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: August 28, 2015, 11:43:09 am »

It'll be interesting to see how long it takes for WV to become internally GOP like the rural South. Union influence might be the only thing actually stopping it as of now. Anyway, I believe a margin like that. What started to flip WV, I think, was the culture wars stuff in the '90s. From what I know of it in the late '90s, people felt very, very threatened by the kind of social progress that loomed on the horizon. It's also so economically disadvantaged and people are largely so low-information that they are vulnerable to corporate propaganda.
Logged
bronz4141
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,013
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: August 28, 2015, 03:17:34 pm »

West Virginia is Likely R, but Clinton can win it by showing her roots to the South.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: August 28, 2015, 03:22:03 pm »

West Virginia is Likely R, but Clinton can win it by showing her roots to the South.

But all of the polls show YOU ARE WRONG.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,510
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: August 28, 2015, 06:06:15 pm »

It'll be interesting to see how long it takes for WV to become internally GOP like the rural South. Union influence might be the only thing actually stopping it as of now. Anyway, I believe a margin like that. What started to flip WV, I think, was the culture wars stuff in the '90s. From what I know of it in the late '90s, people felt very, very threatened by the kind of social progress that loomed on the horizon. It's also so economically disadvantaged and people are largely so low-information that they are vulnerable to corporate propaganda.

West Virginia, long one of the most reliable D states, really turned on George McGovern in 1972... going R+2 that year. George McGovern was a horrible match for West Virginia -- and Barack Obama is about the same. 
Logged
Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,933
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: August 28, 2015, 07:52:04 pm »

Losing Lean D WV to Safe R would be bad, but they flipped VA from Safe R to Lean D in the process which is a net gain.

I have to say that it is fascinating to see what happened to WV and VA. It would be quite ironical  if VA denied the GOP the presidency in 2016 after the former solid blue state WV denied the Dems the presidency in 2000. Regardless, I predict that by no later than 2024, both the WV Dems and the VA GOP will be extinct.

Right. That's why there is no democratic party in TX and LA, and no Republican Party in WA and MN. Or wait...
Logged
RFayette
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,976
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: August 29, 2015, 09:56:15 am »

As muon pointed out in another thread, the movement of the Dems from a "labor" agenda to an "urban" agenda, which includes environmentalism and gun control emphases, have resulted in Democrats' decimation in the Mountain State (and improved prospects in VA/CO).

Well, that begs the question, how would Sanders do?


Probably better, but his strong advocacy of climate change issues hurts his cause.
Logged
Kingpoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,423
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: August 29, 2015, 03:31:25 pm »

... Sexism, I guess?
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,705
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: August 29, 2015, 04:33:02 pm »

Losing Lean D WV to Safe R would be bad, but they flipped VA from Safe R to Lean D in the process which is a net gain.

I have to say that it is fascinating to see what happened to WV and VA. It would be quite ironical  if VA denied the GOP the presidency in 2016 after the former solid blue state WV denied the Dems the presidency in 2000. Regardless, I predict that by no later than 2024, both the WV Dems and the VA GOP will be extinct.

Right. That's why there is no democratic party in TX and LA, and no Republican Party in WA and MN. Or wait...

Well, of course they will continue to exist but that's not what I intended to say. The point is that they won't be able to win elections in their state anymore.

Do you mean that you expect even the VA House of Delegates to be Dem controlled by 2024?  Because it is currently still 2:1 GOP.  Of course, the WV state senate was 2:1 Dem last year and is now GOP controlled by 1 vote after someone switched parties to break the tie.  So maybe VA Dems really could pick up 20+ suburban seats in one cycle the next time there is a Republican president, but an NY state senate situation where it is the last holdout for decades also seems quite possible.  One of the most interesting points of the Bush-Obama era is how Republicans have been able to cement their gains from state trends into there column up and down the ballot in a way that Democrats thus far haven't. 
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,995
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: August 29, 2015, 08:50:45 pm »

Losing Lean D WV to Safe R would be bad, but they flipped VA from Safe R to Lean D in the process which is a net gain.

I have to say that it is fascinating to see what happened to WV and VA. It would be quite ironical  if VA denied the GOP the presidency in 2016 after the former solid blue state WV denied the Dems the presidency in 2000. Regardless, I predict that by no later than 2024, both the WV Dems and the VA GOP will be extinct.

Right. That's why there is no democratic party in TX and LA, and no Republican Party in WA and MN. Or wait...

Well, of course they will continue to exist but that's not what I intended to say. The point is that they won't be able to win elections in their state anymore.

Do you mean that you expect even the VA House of Delegates to be Dem controlled by 2024?  Because it is currently still 2:1 GOP.  Of course, the WV state senate was 2:1 Dem last year and is now GOP controlled by 1 vote after someone switched parties to break the tie.  So maybe VA Dems really could pick up 20+ suburban seats in one cycle the next time there is a Republican president, but an NY state senate situation where it is the last holdout for decades also seems quite possible.  One of the most interesting points of the Bush-Obama era is how Republicans have been able to cement their gains from state trends into there column up and down the ballot in a way that Democrats thus far haven't. 

This is true, I was thinking more of Senate races and other statewide elections (like Attorney General) and presidential elections, tbqh. But they will probably lose seats in the House of Delegates and the State Senate over time as well.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,694
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: August 30, 2015, 08:45:52 am »


That would explain why Hillary landslided over Obama in 2008. Oh wait, that's got to be racism. Looks like the state is racist and sexist Tongue
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,689


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: August 31, 2015, 08:24:52 am »

WV may be the only state where there wasn't much of an age gap in 2014. KY had an age gap, with younger voters strongly favoring Grimes. WV was another matter.

Still, this poll is junk. The question on the Iran treaty is proof of that. So is the question on the death penalty. If that many people in WV supported the death penalty, it would already be a death penalty state.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,689


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: August 31, 2015, 09:00:44 am »

A bit more about Orion Strategies. According to this, Orion is a right-wing hack pollster...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Scheunemann
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: August 31, 2015, 12:23:50 pm »

WV may be the only state where there wasn't much of an age gap in 2014. KY had an age gap, with younger voters strongly favoring Grimes. WV was another matter.

Still, this poll is junk. The question on the Iran treaty is proof of that. So is the question on the death penalty. If that many people in WV supported the death penalty, it would already be a death penalty state.

You're right, this poll is junk - Republicans will beat her by even more.
Logged
whitesox130
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,509
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: 2.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: August 31, 2015, 02:53:24 pm »

West Virginia's been long gone for Democrats since 2004. Even if Hillary doesn't lose it by 32 percent, I doubt she'll come within 20 points of the Republican. I've always thought that these "Candidate X is a good/bad fit for State Y" arguments are overly simplistic. Hillary won't significantly overperform Obama in West Virginia, Arkansas, or Kentucky (unless she wins in a landslide), and she won't significantly underperform Obama in Colorado (unless she loses badly.)
Indeed, the Democratic Party is a poor fit for West Virginia, and that's their problem.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,404
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: August 31, 2015, 03:51:01 pm »

WV may be the only state where there wasn't much of an age gap in 2014. KY had an age gap, with younger voters strongly favoring Grimes. WV was another matter.

Still, this poll is junk. The question on the Iran treaty is proof of that. So is the question on the death penalty. If that many people in WV supported the death penalty, it would already be a death penalty state.

You're right, this poll is junk - Republicans will beat her by even more.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,995
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: August 31, 2015, 04:37:19 pm »

You're right, this poll is junk - Republicans will beat her by even more.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC