Ky. Governor's race: Who will win?
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  Ky. Governor's race: Who will win?
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Poll
Question: Who will win the Kentucky's governor's election?
#1
Attorney General Jack Conway (D)
 
#2
Businessman Matt Bevin (R)
 
#3
Online writer Drew Curtis (L)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 139

Author Topic: Ky. Governor's race: Who will win?  (Read 20792 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #75 on: October 26, 2015, 07:57:06 AM »

SurveyUSA will have a final poll out on Wednesday.

That doesn't sound too promising.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #76 on: October 26, 2015, 10:59:49 PM »

It would be kind of weird to see a Democratic candidate win in Kentucky while loosing Pike County, which could very well happen since the county has been over ten points more GOP than the state in the past couple of elections.    Tongue
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #77 on: October 27, 2015, 04:43:33 PM »

Any chance that some moderate/conservative Democrats will vote for Bevin or Curtis?

Curtis but not Bevin. Almost everyone who might vote for Bevin stopped calling themselves a Democrat a long time ago.
What about Kim Davis?
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #78 on: October 27, 2015, 04:47:14 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2015, 04:49:45 PM by Oldiesfreak1854 »

I've heard that, and that's why I predict Conway will win.  Too many mainstream conservatives have been put off by Bevin.  Many of them are publicly supporting Conway, myself included.  The fact that Democrats haven't put this race away with that kind of defection is remarkable.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #79 on: October 28, 2015, 03:42:09 PM »

The final SurveyUSA poll will be out at 6pm.

It will also have results on all downballot races.

Also: New exit poll methods will be tested next Tuesday in KY and MS, by surveying voters online for the first time, rather than after exiting polling precincts. It's the costs, stupid ...

http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/28/new-exit-polls-being-tested
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #80 on: October 28, 2015, 03:44:49 PM »

Don't know anything about this race, but I'm going to go ahead and abandon my usual mantra that the fewer elected Southern Democrats, the better ... and root for Conway.  It's usually a red flag if "business Republicans" would prefer the Democrat, and I think it'd be better for politics in general to have fewer one-party states.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #81 on: October 28, 2015, 04:04:08 PM »

The race for AG has the Democrat leading by TWELVE percentage points now.

TWELVE!!!
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #82 on: October 28, 2015, 04:04:48 PM »

Also, Grimes is ahead for SoS by THIRTEEN.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #83 on: October 28, 2015, 04:09:03 PM »

Good news for Conway then, I guess.

He could finally put the race away, winning something like 51-45-4 or something.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #84 on: October 28, 2015, 04:14:54 PM »

Also, Edelen is +8.

There's 2 downballot races where the GOP is +2 and +7, but that's one fewer House seat the Democrats will have to defend in a special election, and one more the Republicans will have to defend.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #85 on: October 28, 2015, 04:58:17 PM »

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windjammer
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« Reply #86 on: October 28, 2015, 05:01:51 PM »

Apparently, the new bluegrass poll: 45-40 for Conway
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #87 on: October 28, 2015, 05:04:42 PM »

In the final Bluegrass Poll, it's Conway with 45 percent, Bevin with 40 percent, and Independent Drew Curtis with 6 percent.

Bevin ends the contest with a -6 net favorability rating as 38 percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, compared to 32 percent who have a favorable opinion.

Conway ends the contest with a +4 net favorability rating as 36 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 32 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Curtis ends the contest where he started, largely unknown as 80 percent of voters have no opinion of Curtis, or have a neutral opinion of him.

http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/Bluegrass-Poll-Conway-keeps-5-point-lead-over-Bevin-in-governors-race-338053442.html
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Miles
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« Reply #88 on: October 28, 2015, 11:25:15 PM »

^ Organized labor, at least in the east.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #89 on: October 29, 2015, 01:41:20 AM »

^ Organized labor, at least in the east.

No union miners left in Kentucky

I guess some retirees are still union and care about their benefits, but really there aren't many miners left at all.
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windjammer
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« Reply #90 on: October 29, 2015, 04:27:36 AM »

I remain pessimistic. Hopefully, PPP will poll this race.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #91 on: October 29, 2015, 08:53:20 AM »

There aren't that many people who are union members, but they support unions. Most nonunion workers wish they had a union.

Also, the Kentucky GOP is just so ridiculously extreme.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #92 on: October 29, 2015, 08:54:30 AM »

Bevin will win and the Republicans will sweep all statewide offices. We know there is systematic polling bias against Republicans in Kentucky, and that there is a burgeoning and powerful anti-Democratic sentiment boiling in the state. There's a small chance Grimes and/or Edelen hold on, but it seems quite unlikely.
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windjammer
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« Reply #93 on: October 29, 2015, 08:57:08 AM »

Bevin will win and the Republicans will sweep all statewide offices. We know there is systematic polling bias against Republicans in Kentucky, and that there is a burgeoning and powerful anti-Democratic sentiment boiling in the state. There's a small chance Grimes and/or Edelen hold on, but it seems quite unlikely.
Beshear has a chance to hold on too.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #94 on: October 29, 2015, 08:58:26 AM »

Bevin will win and the Republicans will sweep all statewide offices. We know there is systematic polling bias against Republicans in Kentucky, and that there is a burgeoning and powerful anti-Democratic sentiment boiling in the state. There's a small chance Grimes and/or Edelen hold on, but it seems quite unlikely.
Beshear has a chance to hold on too.

Beshear is +12, Grimes is +13, Edelen is +8. The GOP never had a chance of beating them.

Conway is +5, but it's a steady +5.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #95 on: October 29, 2015, 09:28:57 AM »

The WKU poll that was Conway +5 polled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans - even though Democrats have a significant membership edge in Kentucky. Conway has to be ahead by a lot more than 5.
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Xing
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« Reply #96 on: October 29, 2015, 11:05:57 AM »

My final guess is Conway by about 2.5
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #97 on: October 29, 2015, 03:07:16 PM »

Sabato moves it to Leans Democratic.
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windjammer
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« Reply #98 on: October 29, 2015, 03:20:11 PM »

PPP must show a clear Conway lead before I call this race for Bevin.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #99 on: October 29, 2015, 03:30:28 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2015, 03:46:52 PM by TNvolunteer »

^This.

And this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=216819.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192495.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=159314.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=124809.0

Every time I see "KY" and "SUSA" together, I always get worried.
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