Ky. Governor's race: Who will win?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Kim Davis flap may have ruined Bevin's chances.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Kim Davis flap may have ruined Bevin's chances.

If anything, it will help him with the base.

As if they weren't already going to vote for him?

There have actually been a few posts on Bevin's Facebook page from people who say he lost their vote.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'll go out on a limb and say Bevin has about a 75% chance of victory.  We need to learn our lessons from what happened to Grimes.

Has Conway repeated any of Grimes's mistakes?

Conway has actually run a really good campaign so far.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Where do people get the idea Bevin is for "limited government" after he supported Kim Davis and "right-to-work"?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Conway, very narrowly, this year, and then some Republican other than Matt Bevin will comfortably beat him in 2019. That is my prediction.

Will there even still be a Republican Party in 2019?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Any chance that some moderate/conservative Democrats will vote for Bevin or Curtis?

Curtis but not Bevin. Almost everyone who might vote for Bevin stopped calling themselves a Democrat a long time ago.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Conway will win. Curtis will cut into Bevin more than Conway. The Pubs made a mistake not selecting Comer.

With Comer being enveloped by a domestic violence scandal, they might have done worse with Comer.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm starting to think Kynect will save Conway's bacon. It's very popular after all, and Bevin cut his teeth on rabid opposition to public healthcare - and apparently he would have the unilateral power to close the exchange and even (I don't know if this is true) reverse the Medicaid Expansion.

Kentucky has a law that passed back in the early days of Medicaid that says the state must accept whatever Medicaid the federal government allows. But I firmly believe Bevin will disobey this law.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bevin stank at the debate last night.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I was wondering the same thing! Last poll of the race I saw made it seem like the race was still competitive. Did Bevin have a big misstep that I missed?

His whole campaign is a misstep.

Just a few days ago, Bevin showed up at the Kentucky Democratic Party HQ and began ranting and raving that the world is so unfair to him. He is unhinged.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

SurveyUSA will have a final poll out on Wednesday.

That doesn't sound too promising.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The race for AG has the Democrat leading by TWELVE percentage points now.

TWELVE!!!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, Grimes is ahead for SoS by THIRTEEN.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, Edelen is +8.

There's 2 downballot races where the GOP is +2 and +7, but that's one fewer House seat the Democrats will have to defend in a special election, and one more the Republicans will have to defend.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There aren't that many people who are union members, but they support unions. Most nonunion workers wish they had a union.

Also, the Kentucky GOP is just so ridiculously extreme.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bevin will win and the Republicans will sweep all statewide offices. We know there is systematic polling bias against Republicans in Kentucky, and that there is a burgeoning and powerful anti-Democratic sentiment boiling in the state. There's a small chance Grimes and/or Edelen hold on, but it seems quite unlikely.

Beshear has a chance to hold on too.

Beshear is +12, Grimes is +13, Edelen is +8. The GOP never had a chance of beating them.

Conway is +5, but it's a steady +5.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The WKU poll that was Conway +5 polled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans - even though Democrats have a significant membership edge in Kentucky. Conway has to be ahead by a lot more than 5.