Ky. Governor's race: Who will win?

[windjammer]

I say polls will put Conway about a point ahead, but Bevin will surprise by winning by 5 points or more.

[windjammer]

I'm still believing Bevin will win.

[windjammer]

Apparently, the new bluegrass poll: 45-40 for Conway

[windjammer]

I remain pessimistic. Hopefully, PPP will poll this race.

[windjammer]

Bevin will win and the Republicans will sweep all statewide offices. We know there is systematic polling bias against Republicans in Kentucky, and that there is a burgeoning and powerful anti-Democratic sentiment boiling in the state. There's a small chance Grimes and/or Edelen hold on, but it seems quite unlikely.

Beshear has a chance to hold on too.

[windjammer]

PPP must show a clear Conway lead before I call this race for Bevin.

[windjammer]

7Although to be honest, don't forget there is an independent candidate who will likely get 7% in the end.
So a poll like: 45% Conway 40% Bevin 7% Curtis becomes if we only count Conway and Bewin: Conway: 48.5% Bevin: 43.5%. Much closer to the theorical 50% of a dual.