Donald Trump Decision on 3rd Party Coming "Very Soon"

[The Other Castro]

He says he thinks the decision will make a lot of people "very happy."

[/]

He's probably going to decide against it (unfortunately).

[The Mikado]

He's probably going to decide against it (unfortunately).

Not running third party makes more sense for him. He has a far more realistic shot at the White House seizing the GOP nomination and hoping that the global economy collapses so voters send him in in a fit of panic (his most viable route barring a Clinton meltdown).

[Pyro]

I can't see him not doing a Ross Perot if he is refused the nomination.

[Badger]

I can't see him not doing a Ross Perot if he is refused the nomination.

probably, if he does well in the early primaries.

[7,052,770]

If he announces that he'll run 3rd party if he doesn't get the nomination, he's effectively blackmailing Republican primary voters into choosing him. It might work.

[Figueira]

If he announces that he'll run 3rd party if he doesn't get the nomination, he's effectively blackmailing Republican primary voters into choosing him. It might work.

I'm not really sure if the Republicans would do better in the general election if Trump is the nominee, or if Trump runs as a third party.

[cwt]

He's going to make the pledge because he has to in order to appear on the primary ballot in some states.

But that doesn't mean he can't change his mind.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Trump will check the polls, see that he's leading, and say OK, no 3rd party.

[VPH]

If he announces that he'll run 3rd party if he doesn't get the nomination, he's effectively blackmailing Republican primary voters into choosing him. It might work.

[Penelope]

He's going to make the pledge because he has to in order to appear on the primary ballot in some states.

But that doesn't mean he can't change his mind.

[The Mikado]

I'm really not sure some of you realize the filing situation to get on the ballot as an indy. If Trump is knocked out of the primaries next March, running independent is basically out of the cards. He wouldn't be able to get on the ballot in many states.

Trump is giving up nothing by saying he won't run third party. If Trump wanted to run third party he'd have to start this year.

The only route for Trump to get ballot access everywhere third party would be the hilarious spectacle of him trying to hijack the Libertarian ballot line by swamping their convention.

[PPT Spiral]

I'm really not sure some of you realize the filing situation to get on the ballot as an indy. If Trump is knocked out of the primaries next March, running independent is basically out of the cards. He wouldn't be able to get on the ballot in many states.

Trump is giving up nothing by saying he won't run third party. If Trump wanted to run third party he'd have to start this year.

The only route for Trump to get ballot access everywhere third party would be the hilarious spectacle of him trying to hijack the Libertarian ballot line by swamping their convention.

Sore loser laws would still apply to Trump and be a problem for him even running under a party like the Libertarians, especially if he sticks around in the primaries long enough when the filing deadlines really matter. Gary Johnson was kicked off of Michigan's ballot in 2012 after his brief Republican campaign even though the Libertarian Party was able to get on the Michigan ballot in 2008. At least for Michigan, however, Trump might evade that law by running as an independent not aligned with any party. Most states have sore loser laws but their severity varies, and Trump would have the resources to handle most of that if he really tried. The question for Trump is if he feels it's worth expending that time and money down the road when his more viable path lies in the Republican Party, where he's still the frontrunner with a seemingly devoted base of supporters. If he really wants to go the independent route, then he needs to pull out of the primaries sooner than later for his own good.

[Mr. Morden]

Incidentally, Time magazine estimates the cost of getting on the ballot in all 50 states as an Independent at ~$20 million:

http://ballot-access.org/2015/08/29/time-magazine-says-it-costs-20-million-to-get-an-independent-presidential-candidate-on-the-ballot-in-all-states/

Though yes, the bigger issue is that he'd have to start well before the primaries have even begun.

[dudeabides]

He'll decide in favor of it, handing this election to the Democrats. He's a selfish buffoon, he hates this country, he's a moron, and he married a prostitute.

[Zioneer]

He'll decide in favor of it, handing this election to the Democrats. He's a selfish buffoon, he hates this country, he's a moron, and he married a prostitute.

Uh, I'm not the biggest fan of Donald Trump, but attacking his wife is a pretty low blow.

[Brittain33]

He's going to make the pledge because he has to in order to appear on the primary ballot in some states.

But that doesn't mean he can't change his mind.

Exactly. He's had no problem shamelessly making 180º changes that would make Mitt Romney's head spin.

[SteveRogers]

Most states do have sore loser laws for most races, but most of those states explicitly exempt presidential candidates from these laws. Michigan is the exception rather than the rule. The much bigger problem would be simultaneous filing deadlines. In many states the filing deadline for independents is the same as for the primaries, so you have to decide which route to take early on. Waiting until after Super Tuesday would almost certainly be too late. Making a decision after Iowa or New Hampshire is probably too late as well. (There's some precedent for getting courts to throw out unreasonably early filing deadlines, but that takes more time and a lot more money in each state). As far as hijacking a third party's ballot line, the Libertarian party is really the only one left with near-nationwide ballot access. The constitution party has slid to around half of the states in recent cycles. Anybody know if Americans Elect is gonna try something again this time around? If Trump had run as an indy in 2012 he could have easily hijacked that "convention," and they were on track to get close to 50 states.

[Crumpets]

Most states do have sore loser laws for most races, but most of those states explicitly exempt presidential candidates from these laws. Michigan is the exception rather than the rule. The much bigger problem would be simultaneous filing deadlines. In many states the filing deadline for independents is the same as for the primaries, so you have to decide which route to take early on. Waiting until after Super Tuesday would almost certainly be too late. Making a decision after Iowa or New Hampshire is probably too late as well. (There's some precedent for getting courts to throw out unreasonably early filing deadlines, but that takes more time and a lot more money in each state). As far as hijacking a third party's ballot line, the Libertarian party is really the only one left with near-nationwide ballot access. The constitution party has slid to around half of the states in recent cycles. Anybody know if Americans Elect is gonna try something again this time around? If Trump had run as an indy in 2012 he could have easily hijacked that "convention," and they were on track to get close to 50 states.

Americans Elect has too much integrity to nominate Trump.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Most states do have sore loser laws for most races, but most of those states explicitly exempt presidential candidates from these laws. Michigan is the exception rather than the rule. The much bigger problem would be simultaneous filing deadlines. In many states the filing deadline for independents is the same as for the primaries, so you have to decide which route to take early on. Waiting until after Super Tuesday would almost certainly be too late. Making a decision after Iowa or New Hampshire is probably too late as well. (There's some precedent for getting courts to throw out unreasonably early filing deadlines, but that takes more time and a lot more money in each state). As far as hijacking a third party's ballot line, the Libertarian party is really the only one left with near-nationwide ballot access. The constitution party has slid to around half of the states in recent cycles. Anybody know if Americans Elect is gonna try something again this time around? If Trump had run as an indy in 2012 he could have easily hijacked that "convention," and they were on track to get close to 50 states.

The greens have pretty good ballot access too. They's never nominate Trump, just pointing it out for the record. Now, if by some small chance Sanders mounts an independent campaign, I'd imagine he'd go for the green nomination. But he'll probably just reluctantly endorse Clinton.

[Crumpets]

Most states do have sore loser laws for most races, but most of those states explicitly exempt presidential candidates from these laws. Michigan is the exception rather than the rule. The much bigger problem would be simultaneous filing deadlines. In many states the filing deadline for independents is the same as for the primaries, so you have to decide which route to take early on. Waiting until after Super Tuesday would almost certainly be too late. Making a decision after Iowa or New Hampshire is probably too late as well. (There's some precedent for getting courts to throw out unreasonably early filing deadlines, but that takes more time and a lot more money in each state). As far as hijacking a third party's ballot line, the Libertarian party is really the only one left with near-nationwide ballot access. The constitution party has slid to around half of the states in recent cycles. Anybody know if Americans Elect is gonna try something again this time around? If Trump had run as an indy in 2012 he could have easily hijacked that "convention," and they were on track to get close to 50 states.

The greens have pretty good ballot access too. They's never nominate Trump, just pointing it out for the record. Now, if by some small chance Sanders mounts an independent campaign, I'd imagine he'd go for the green nomination. But he'll probably just reluctantly endorse Clinton.

Perhaps if Bernie wins the nomination, but is polling poorly for the general, the Greens can nominate Trump to try to hand Sanders the election.

[dudeabides]

He'll decide in favor of it, handing this election to the Democrats. He's a selfish buffoon, he hates this country, he's a moron, and he married a prostitute.

Uh, I'm not the biggest fan of Donald Trump, but attacking his wife is a pretty low blow.

Both of them deserve it, they are low-lives.

[Zioneer]

He'll decide in favor of it, handing this election to the Democrats. He's a selfish buffoon, he hates this country, he's a moron, and he married a prostitute.

Uh, I'm not the biggest fan of Donald Trump, but attacking his wife is a pretty low blow.

Both of them deserve it, they are low-lives.

Um, no? Unless a politician's spouse is directly involved in politics (so, it's okay to attack Bill Clinton, but not Heidi Cruz), it's not okay to attack the spouse of a candidate.

[DavidB.]

He'll decide in favor of it, handing this election to the Democrats. He's a selfish buffoon, he hates this country, he's a moron, and he married a prostitute.

Uh, I'm not the biggest fan of Donald Trump, but attacking his wife is a pretty low blow.

Both of them deserve it, they are low-lives.

Um, no? Unless a politician's spouse is directly involved in politics (so, it's okay to attack Bill Clinton, but not Heidi Cruz), it's not okay to attack the spouse of a candidate.

Yeah, this. I generally agree with you on Trump (and on many other things), dudeabides, but this isn't classy. I'd say there are more than enough legitimate things to attack Trump...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Stay classy dudeabides...