IA-Monmouth GOP: Trump and Carson tied at the top

[Skye]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/iowa-poll-2016-ben-carson-donald-trump-213182


Trump 23
Carson 23
Fiorina 10
Cruz 9
Walker 7
Bush 5
Kasich 4
Rubio 4
Paul 3
Everyone else 2 or less

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Huckabee's inconsistency is incredibly frustrating. You could only hope that he can prevent a Carson win.

[Mr. Morden]

link

fav/unfav % among Republican voters:

Carson 81/6% for +75%
Fiorina 67/8% for +59%
Rubio 64/13% for +51%
Walker 64/16% for +48%
Cruz 58/21% for +37%
Huckabee 53/27% for +26%
Trump 52/33% for +19%
Kasich 32/23% for +9%
Bush 32/51% for -19%

So Carson now has better name recognition in Iowa than every other Republican candidate except for Trump(!).  His ads certainly seem to have paid off.

[Likely Voter]

The Donald will not like being tied for first. Will he start attacking Carson?

[Phony Moderate]

So in the top four we have three people who have never held elected office before and Ted Cruz.

[Mr. Morden]

So in the top four we have three people who have never held elected office before and Ted Cruz.

A simpler way of wording this would be: None of the top three have ever held any public office.

[Maxwell]

Evidence of the Ben Carson surge continues.

[Bull Moose Base]

So in the top four we have three people who have never held elected office before and Ted Cruz.

A simpler way of wording this would be: None of the top three have ever held any public office.

Even simpler: What the F is happening?

[Mr. Morden]

We have had one case before in which three of the top four in Iowa had never held elective office:

2000 Iowa caucuses top four
Bush 41%
Forbes 31%
Keyes 14%
Bauer 9%

Neither Forbes nor Bauer had ever had ever held any public office.  Keyes had been an assistant Secretary of State, so he’d held public office, but not elective office.  But Bush came in first, and he was Governor of Texas.  So yeah, if one, two, and three in Iowa next year are all people who’ve never held office, it would be unprecedented.

[Mr. Morden]

On another note, why does Monmouth keep doing this early primary state polls only for the Republican side?  Their recent IA, NH, and SC polls were Republican only, weren't they?  Or are they going to release Democratic #s at some point?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

14 governors and senators running fro the Republican nomination, and yet 56% are for the 3 who haven't held office before.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The Donald won't like competition, maybe he'll start going after Carson now?

[/]

Never thought I'd see myself supporting Ben Carson...

[Mehmentum]

Carson certainly seems to have won support of the Evangelicals.  This makes him a force in Iowa, just like Huckabee 2008 and Santorum 2012.

[Angel of Death]

Maybe it will be called the Black House from now on.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

On another note, why does Monmouth keep doing this early primary state polls only for the Republican side?  Their recent IA, NH, and SC polls were Republican only, weren't they?  Or are they going to release Democratic #s at some point?

They probably were thinking the democratic race would be a snoozer so they concentrated on just the republican race. Makes sense from a pedagogical viewpoint to focus on one for their students as they can be more detailed.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/638363843513720832

Pay attention to the sample and screen on IA @MonmouthPoll : listed sample of last two *primaries* of *reg GOP* + say they'll vote in caucus

Very tight screen. Likely understating Trump support.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/638363843513720832

Pay attention to the sample and screen on IA @MonmouthPoll : listed sample of last two *primaries* of *reg GOP* + say they'll vote in caucus

Very tight screen. Likely understating Trump support.

Yes and no. Success in Iowa depends upon GOTV organization and that's one area Trump is lacking in. A tight screen such as this may well underestimate support for him in primary States, but Iowa is a caucus State.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/638363843513720832

Pay attention to the sample and screen on IA @MonmouthPoll : listed sample of last two *primaries* of *reg GOP* + say they'll vote in caucus

Very tight screen. Likely understating Trump support.

The Civic Analytics national poll showed Carson getting an even greater share of his support from "infrequent voters" than Trump:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=217989.msg4704837#msg4704837

[Maxwell]

The Donald won't like competition, maybe he'll start going after Carson now?

The issue with that is the non-establishment types like Carson just as much The Donald, and it will look petty if he attacks Carson.

[Kingpoleon]

So in the top four we have three people who have never held elected office before and Ted Cruz.

So only one of the top five is a "Washington Politician".

[Simfan34]

The Donald won't like competition, maybe he'll start going after Carson now?

The issue with that is the non-establishment types like Carson just as much The Donald, and it will look petty if he attacks Carson.

I cringe thinking of this.