What is the biggest reason Biden is ahead right now?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

It's the economy, stupid!

[Catalyst138]

Covid-19: This one gets my vote. There are plenty of other factors, but the truth is that this was a very competitive race up until the pandemic.

The economy/unemployment rate: This is directly tied to COVID, so I'm lumping this reason in with the previous one.

Trump's recent statements: In general, what Trump says doesn't have much of an impact. Whenever he says something stupid, his supporters always eat it up and everyone else rolls their eyes, but Trump's statements aren't convincing anyone to switch sides.

Trump's overall unpopularity: This is definitely the #2 reason. Most people are voting against Trump rather than for Biden. This is why Biden had a slight lead even months ago. However, Trump saw a massive decline in approval due to COVID so I wouldn't say unpopularity is the main reason Trump is doing poorly now.

He's "Centrist." No. Bernie Sanders or any other leftist would be leading massively as well. This lead has a lot more to do with Trump than Biden. Plus, Trump appears a lot more "radical" nowadays than Sanders does.

He's running a good campaign:  I mean, his campaign is fine I guess, but that's not the reason he's ahead. All Biden needs to do is not majorly screw up and his lead stays.

He's not ahead, the polls are wrong:  LOL.

Other:  I'd like to add the George Floyd protest situation and Trump's poor response to it. That isn't the main reason Trump is doing badly, but it added insult to injury following COVID.

EDIT: Why is there a sad face next to the centrist thing? I didn't mean to add that.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Combination of Trump's overall unpopularity and COVID.

[John Dule]

The stupidity and incompetence of Donald Trump.

[S019]

The economy collapsing, which is an effect of COVID, as well as Trump's COVID response, both of which have contributed to his unpopularity, there's three answers here, and it's not clear which is the initial cause, as you can spin the order of this in a number of ways, and you'd still be correct, voted economy though, since that was Trump's main message before COVID.

[Minnesota Mike]

Biden has been ahead of Trump since he entered the race. The Covid 19 crises has probably widened the lead some but Biden would likely be ahead regardless.

[It’s so Joever]

Obviously Covid-19.
If it weren’t for that,
-The Democratic primary would last longer
-Biden and Sanders would try to outflank eachother left longer
-Trump would actually be out of the spotlight (maybe not considering he wouldn't like that)
-The economy would continue to grow, or at least remain stagnant (still a Trump victory)
-He would hold rally after rally.
-Biden’s lack of enthusiasm would actually matter.
-Biden would be put on the spotlight.
-Trump wouldn’t lose as many old voters.
-The trade war would simmer down.
-Racial tensions may still occur, although probably not as bad as it was early June in our timeline.

Yes Biden could win, but it honestly would be tilt Trump. Remember how good things were for Trump post-impeachment and right before Covid? That would be the momentum Trump would have.

A super deadly pandemic that killed 100k Americans is going to be pretty significant, believe it or not.

[Roll Roons]

Obviously Covid-19.
If it weren’t for that,
-The Democratic primary would last longer
-Biden and Sanders would try to outflank eachother left longer
-Trump would actually be out of the spotlight (maybe not considering he wouldn't like that)
-The economy would continue to grow, or at least remain stagnant (still a Trump victory)
-He would hold rally after rally.
-Biden’s lack of enthusiasm would actually matter.
-Biden would be put on the spotlight.
-Trump wouldn’t lose as many old voters.
-The trade war would simmer down.
-Racial tensions may still occur, although probably not as bad as it was early June in our timeline.

Yes Biden could win, but it honestly would be tilt Trump. Remember how good things were for Trump post-impeachment and right before Covid? That would be the momentum Trump would have.

A super deadly pandemic that killed 100k Americans is going to be pretty significant, believe it or not.

I'm not sure the primary would have gone on for much longer than it did in real life. Biden did manage to carry his Super Tuesday momentum to the next few contests without needing to go too far to the left. He would have cleaned up in Ohio and Georgia (both of which postponed their primaries), and finished Bernie off with the Acela primaries on April 28th, if not earlier. Bernie would have likely ended it around April 30th, rather than waiting until mid-June as he did in 2016.

Plus Trump would still be Trump. He would still turn off a lot of people, Democrats would not be complacent, and they would be motivated to turn out like they were in 2018. Biden led him in polls even pre-pandemic, so I think the race would have been Tilt Biden. However, Trump would certainly have a solid chance of winning (maybe 45%), and Republicans would be slightly favored to hold the Senate.

[mardigrappa]

Did people expect after the national 8-9%~ win in the 2018 midterms, that Biden somehow wouldn't be ahead right now? Even with his questionable gaffes, and torrents of Republican mudslinging, I don't exactly see how it would be close around now.

While a lot can still happen, there is no doubt Republicans aren't very popular. But you could definitely say that the Coronavirus is one of the bigger reasons why he is ahead like he is right now given how it has put Trump's character into the national spotlight like Dems have wanted. But I wouldn't say it would be the biggest reason.