Will Trump win the GOP nomination in 2016?

[Fuzzy Bear]

The GOP Establishment will pull out all the stops to deny Trump the nomination, and they will succeed.  In the process, they will look anti-democratic, heavy-handed, and dismissive of the voters.  They will cause some preciously vital constituencies in the middle of the spectrum to think that maybe, just maybe, Al Gore got jobbed after all, and it will effect their perception of the GOP brand.

It is never a good thing when you have to take down your intra-party adversary in full view of the voters, but Trump is going to insist on it, because he won't go quietly.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The GOP Establishment will pull out all the stops to deny Trump the nomination, and they will succeed.

You do have a point, cause even Trump has lately said that he at best has a 20-30% chance of suceeding in his quest, and that while being up at least 3-1 against everyone else. If not even the greatest narcisist in the entire world does believe in himself, then there must be something seriously wrong.

I do not believe that Trump would be a weaker GE candidate than any of the others, by and large.  I think that this is the perception, however, and the GOP Establishment is going to ram home to all its elected officials of how this could cost them their seat, cost the GOP the Senate, cost them their Governorship, their state legislative majorities, etc.  This appeal could work to many, because Trump really hasn't broken through in GE polling yet. 

I am predicting that there will be intense pressure for the GOP candidates to support Bush, the Establishment fave.  The arguments will be compelling, as they will be INSIDER arguments.  In return, I believe that there will be something for everyone.  I would expect Ted Cruz to be the VP candidate.  I would expect Marco Rubio to drop his Presidential run and go back to running for re-election in FL, after being offered a high place in the GOP Senate leadership.  (I would predict that Rubio would become Senate Majority Whip, replacing John Cornyn, whom Bush would appoint Attorney General if elected.)  I would also predict that high-profile appointments will be offered to Rubio and Walker.  The rest of these folks will be dismissed, and will go quietly, perhaps after being offered Ambassadorships.  There will be something for everyone, even for Rand Paul, who also may be elevated in stature in the Senate. 

The Bush-Cruz ticket will be an awkward ticket, but it's gonna happen, because Trump represents a transformation of the GOP that the Establishment is unalterably opposed to.  Such a transformation goes to the heart of Establishment power, and the Establishment wants to keep the power they've attained.  If Trump becomes President, he'll be running the party show like no other President in modern history; he'll be a national Dick Daley.  For the Bushes, the Haley Barbours, the Mitch McConnells, that would never do.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The GOP Establishment will pull out all the stops to deny Trump the nomination, and they will succeed.

You do have a point, cause even Trump has lately said that he at best has a 20-30% chance of suceeding in his quest, and that while being up at least 3-1 against everyone else. If not even the greatest narcisist in the entire world does believe in himself, then there must be something seriously wrong.

I do not believe that Trump would be a weaker GE candidate than any of the others, by and large.  I think that this is the perception, however, and the GOP Establishment is going to ram home to all its elected officials of how this could cost them their seat, cost the GOP the Senate, cost them their Governorship, their state legislative majorities, etc.  This appeal could work to many, because Trump really hasn't broken through in GE polling yet. 

I am predicting that there will be intense pressure for the GOP candidates to support Bush, the Establishment fave.  The arguments will be compelling, as they will be INSIDER arguments.  In return, I believe that there will be something for everyone.  I would expect Ted Cruz to be the VP candidate.  I would expect Marco Rubio to drop his Presidential run and go back to running for re-election in FL, after being offered a high place in the GOP Senate leadership.  (I would predict that Rubio would become Senate Majority Whip, replacing John Cornyn, whom Bush would appoint Attorney General if elected.)  I would also predict that high-profile appointments will be offered to Rubio and Walker.  The rest of these folks will be dismissed, and will go quietly, perhaps after being offered Ambassadorships.  There will be something for everyone, even for Rand Paul, who also may be elevated in stature in the Senate. 

The Bush-Cruz ticket will be an awkward ticket, but it's gonna happen, because Trump represents a transformation of the GOP that the Establishment is unalterably opposed to.  Such a transformation goes to the heart of Establishment power, and the Establishment wants to keep the power they've attained.  If Trump becomes President, he'll be running the party show like no other President in modern history; he'll be a national Dick Daley.  For the Bushes, the Haley Barbours, the Mitch McConnells, that would never do.

My predictions aren't looking real good now.

I didn't see Jeb! flopping as badly as he did.  But once he was flopping, I didn't see Rubio and Cruz not working things out and getting together, but that didn't happen.  Rubio and Cruz didn't figure out that they need each other's voters to win, as Trump's voters aren't really swayed by events.

I don't see the GOP Establishment's resolve to stop Trump.  Perhaps they can't, but they had needed to do more than they did earlier.  They acted as if the GOP primaries were a two (2) division race; the Establishment Division and the Outsider Division, with the division winners meeting in the playoffs.  That's where they're at now.