Will PA be the next Nebraska/Maine?

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05130/501761.stm

The task force is also expected to issue opinions on whether Pennsylvania should have "early voting," allowing residents to cast their votes one or two weeks before Election Day, as is done in Florida, and on whether to apportion Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes to more than one presidential candidate based on the popular vote total rather than the current system of winner-take-all.

This would be great news for the GOP unless someone like Santorum or another favorable Republican runs (because it would then prevent the candidate from taking all 21 EVs).

[Joe Republic]

Would it really be like Nebraska and Maine, or more like the proposed Colorado system?

[A18]

I think he just means vote-splitting. Though this would just completely remove PA's relevance in presidential elections (in a close election, you're going to get what, 1 more vote than your opponent?). They should do a CD split.

[Keystone Phil]

Would it really be like Nebraska and Maine, or more like the proposed Colorado system?

I was confused with it at first to be honest. I just assumed they meant a Nebraska/Maine type deal.

[CARLHAYDEN]

How many Congressional districts in Pennsylvania did Bush carry in 2004?

[Joe Republic]

Not having the 2004 presidential results map by CD yet, here's the one for 2000:



Under the Nebraska/Maine system, the result would have been:
Gore: 13 votes (11 CDs, 2 AL)
Bush: 10 votes

With the Colorado system, Gore would have got 12 votes, Bush 11.

Obviously it would be nice to do a similar analysis using the current 21 EVs for PA, but we'll have to wait for that I guess.

[A18]

The one good thing about the proportional allotment proposal is that it would give third parties a chance of actually getting an electoral vote or two, though that would still be hard. They'd have to get 5% of the vote.

[Keystone Phil]

How many Congressional districts in Pennsylvania did Bush carry in 2004?

Bush likely took the following:

PA 3
PA 4
PA 5
PA 9
PA 10
PA 15
PA 16
PA 17
PA 18
PA 19

That would be 10 for Bush, 11 for Kerry.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Not having the 2004 presidential results map by CD yet, here's the one for 2000:



Under the Nebraska/Maine system, the result would have been:
Gore: 13 votes (11 CDs, 2 AL)
Bush: 10 votes

With the Colorado system, Gore would have got 12 votes, Bush 11.

Obviously it would be nice to do a similar analysis using the current 21 EVs for PA, but we'll have to wait for that I guess.

Thanks for the info.

I estimate that Bush would have carried a majority (12+/- 1) of the Congressional Districts in Pennsylvania in 2004.

[CARLHAYDEN]

How many Congressional districts in Pennsylvania did Bush carry in 2004?

Bush likely took the following:

PA 3
PA 4
PA 5
PA 9
PA 10
PA 15
PA 16
PA 17
PA 18
PA 19

That would be 10 for Bush, 11 for Kerry.

So you think the Kerry carried 6,7, and 8, while Bush carried 17?

[Keystone Phil]

How many Congressional districts in Pennsylvania did Bush carry in 2004?

Bush likely took the following:

PA 3
PA 4
PA 5
PA 9
PA 10
PA 15
PA 16
PA 17
PA 18
PA 19

That would be 10 for Bush, 11 for Kerry.

So you think the Kerry carried 6,7, and 8, while Bush carried 17?

Yes. PA 6, 7 and 8 are held by moderate to conservative Republicans but they go Democrat on the national level. PA 17 is held by a conservative Democrat. The seat was originally a target in 2004 but Tim Holden (the Congressman) is just too popular. It will go GOP once he retires. The GOP pretty much dominates there when it comes to every other race.

[Joe Republic]

As to the likelihood of this system actually passing, I'd say slim to none.  Whether it ends up like Nebraska/Maine or the failed Colorado proposition, it doesn't matter.

The reason the Colorado system failed was because people didn't want the state to lose its 'swing state' status, which brings lots of attention and money into the state.  This is amplified in PA, where the EV count is more than double, and the result is even closer than CO.

Unlike Nebraska and Maine, Pennsylvania's congressional districts don't tend to vote unanimously for one candidate.  As Phil has said, it's about a 50:50 split, in fact.  Therefore, this system would go the same way as the Colorado system, and fail for the same reasons.

[Keystone Phil]

Unlike Nebraska and Maine, Pennsylvania's congressional districts don't tend to vote unanimously for one candidate.  As Phil has said, it's about a 50:50 split, in fact. 

But the GOP dominated State Legislature might see this as the way to stop the Democrats from taking all 21 votes. It could backfire in certain situations (Ex: Santorum in '08) but they might look at this as the best option right now.

[Joe Republic]

If seen from that perspective, then I expect Rendell would block the motion.  Ultimately, it doesn't really benefit either side very much, as any short-term benefits to one side could easily backfire in the future.

[A18]

There would be, I imagine, swing districts that would get plenty of attention.

[Keystone Phil]

There would be, I imagine, swing districts that would get plenty of attention.

PA 7, 8 and 15 would be good examples.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There would be, I imagine, swing districts that would get plenty of attention.

Just think of the PA-13 thread!

Still, that's a lot less than the entire state.

[Keystone Phil]

There would be, I imagine, swing districts that would get plenty of attention.

Just think of the PA-13 thread!

PA 13 probably wouldn't be a swing unless someone like Tom Ridge decided to run. The district likely went around 55-57% for Kerry last year.

[12th Doctor]

There would be, I imagine, swing districts that would get plenty of attention.

PA 7, 8 and 15 would be good examples.

3 & 4 too and probably 12 soon.

[nini2287]

I thought I read somewhere 15 went for Kerry.  I also wouldn't be surprised if 7 went for Bush.  Bush won Delaware County, which contains a large portion of the 7th district.

[Alcon]

I thought I read somewhere 15 went for Kerry.  I also wouldn't be surprised if 7 went for Bush.  Bush won Delaware County, which contains a large portion of the 7th district.

Actually, the Atlas says Delaware County went Kerry, 57-42.

[Keystone Phil]

I thought I read somewhere 15 went for Kerry.  I also wouldn't be surprised if 7 went for Bush.  Bush won Delaware County, which contains a large portion of the 7th district.

Well I know that Lehigh (which makes up most of PA 15) went for Kerry but it was very close - 51%-49%. I was thinking that the Northhampton and very small Montco parts of PA 15 would have been enough for Bush to carry the CD.

[dazzleman]

I don't see why any state would split its electoral votes in the absence of a broad national move in the same direction.

I have grave misgivings about different states apportioning their votes in different ways.  So far, there's been no impact from Nebraska and Maine apportioning their votes by CD, but with bigger, less monolithic states, this could produce real problems if some states are winner take all, and others divide their electoral votes.

This could ignite an ugly round of underhanded partisan manipulation, with Republicans trying to get states like New York to do this, while Democrats go after states like Colorado (oh, I forgot, they already did this).

I think we should leave well enough alone.

[Joe Republic]

Exactly, reforming states one at a time is a terrible move, as it totally distorts the eventual result.  They should either change the whole system all at once, or not at all.

[AkSaber]

I don't see why any state would split its electoral votes in the absence of a broad national move in the same direction.

I have grave misgivings about different states apportioning their votes in different ways.  So far, there's been no impact from Nebraska and Maine apportioning their votes by CD, but with bigger, less monolithic states, this could produce real problems if some states are winner take all, and others divide their electoral votes.

This could ignite an ugly round of underhanded partisan manipulation, with Republicans trying to get states like New York to do this, while Democrats go after states like Colorado (oh, I forgot, they already did this).

I think we should leave well enough alone.

That's what I've been thinking. The gerrymandering would be endless, and the legal challenges would be non-stop on both sides.