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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virgini)
  Most popular/Least popular Governor.....
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Author Topic: Most popular/Least popular Governor.....  (Read 7075 times)
AuH2O
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« Reply #25 on: May 11, 2005, 12:01:56 am »

Heineman looks good, assuming he challenges Nelson and doesn't die fighting a losing battle for Governor.

Ehrlich not too bad actually... internals look quite good. Romney not great but not horrible-- he should run for reelection IMHO.

So far as Pawlenty... when you're hot, you're hot.

And how about some love for Mrs. Lingle down there in Hawaii?



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Sam Spade
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« Reply #26 on: May 11, 2005, 12:24:15 am »

This one shocked me...

Jennifer Granholm  A:  36%  D:  57%

I thought she was extremley popular and a definite lock for re-election?

She'll probably win re-election (unless the GOP comes up with a good candidate), but the main reason behind the approval rating is because, to put it bluntly...

Michigan's economy is in the sh*tter.

Economic conditions are influencing the fact that a lot of Governors in the Sun Belt are in good shape approval-wise, whereas a lot of governors in the Rust Belt are in terrible shape approval-wise. (Bob Taft is just an idiot, nothing affects him)

I'll deal with the states that I know that don't fit this condition in my next post.

Also, keep in mind that at least 1 out of every 20 polls is going to be an outlier, pretty much guarantees there's going to be at least 2-3 polls here that are totally wrong.  I'll give my impressions as to which ones they probably are in the next post too.
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Cubby
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« Reply #27 on: May 11, 2005, 01:04:19 am »

19% for Bob Taft? Doesn't surprise me in the slightest. Thank God there's not much more of him left to go.

What did he do that's so bad? I heard he's a RINO.

He opposed the ban on gay marriage and supported the biggest tax increase in state history.

I never thought I'd be defending the Taft family, but he is being unfairly hated by his own party.

The reason he opposed the gay marriage bill was because it will cause companies to not create jobs in Ohio, since the state's ban was extreme and banned a lot more gay rights than just marriage. Taft was trying to attract business to Ohio and the Republicans still hate him! This is proof the GOP is totally dominated by Christian fundamentalists.

I don't know anything about his tax bill but thats probably just the usual Republican whining about taxes, which never ends, no matter how low taxes are.
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MaC
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« Reply #28 on: May 11, 2005, 02:34:15 am »

This one shocked me...

Jennifer Granholm A: 36% D: 57%

I thought she was extremley popular and a definite lock for re-election?

yeah, this seems way off.  She was extremely popular, for a while.  Now her ratings are dropping.  But that amount seems unreasonable.  Last I heard, about two weeks ago she was at 51% approval.  As for reelection, she's not a sure thing anymore, but still has good chances.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #29 on: May 11, 2005, 03:02:51 am »

Seeing as about 1 in 20 polls blow up and there are 50 here...
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jfern
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« Reply #30 on: May 11, 2005, 03:26:39 am »

Holy sh**t, Arnold is big trouble. 40% approve, 56% disapprove. Everyone was saying how "invincible" he was a few months ago. Too bad Bush never got those sort of numbers. Hey, it's stilla little better than Pataki's 36% - 56%. Those numbers make me happy.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #31 on: May 11, 2005, 03:33:45 am »

Ernie Fletcher   R   36%   50%

*waits for Bandit*

Not exactly news though; the Tobbaco lobbyists favourite politician's approval ratings have been in the toilet for about a year.
He's got one term written all over him.
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jfern
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« Reply #32 on: May 11, 2005, 03:34:23 am »

Seeing as about 1 in 20 polls blow up and there are 50 here...

Blow up is a rather unprecise term. Perhaps you mean are outside of the 95% MOE, which is about 4% for samples of n=600. We can still be very sure that Arnold has a net negative approval.
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jfern
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« Reply #33 on: May 11, 2005, 03:52:01 am »

This is definitely some interesting stuff. I can't think of a more accurate polling firm than SUSA. Hey, when your competition is Gallup and Zogby, it's not hard.
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #34 on: May 11, 2005, 07:49:21 am »

jfern,

What are people saying about Arnold's chances for re-election?  Who all has jumped into the race, yet?
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MissCatholic
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« Reply #35 on: May 11, 2005, 09:26:29 am »

Interesting that all democrat governors in bush won states have apporval ratings over 50.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #36 on: May 11, 2005, 09:43:27 am »

19% for Bob Taft?  Doesn't surprise me in the slightest.  Thank God there's not much more of him left to go.

What did he do that's so bad? I heard he's a RINO.

It's a combination of things, mostly centered on his total inadequcy to actually run the state.  We've all sat and watched as the deficit and recession got worse (particularly in the North East), with education funding all but running out.  His response was a massive tax hike, which was actually much worse for the poor people and did hardly anything to the rich.  He also poured money into totally pointless schemes, such as rural barn renovation, in the hope that he'll be remembered for at least one good thing.  During the bad flood season, he decided to take a golfing vacation.  Lastly (and this is really just the first few things that come to mind), he was nowhere to be found for much of the presidential campaign.  You'd think he would have at least shown some interest in America's #1 swing state.

As for him being a RINO - not really.  He said he'd try and "govern from the middle" and all that, but I think he meant "from the middle of the GOP".
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Cubby
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« Reply #37 on: May 11, 2005, 11:03:28 am »

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Jodi Rell of Connecticut. Late last year, after she took office, she had an approval rating of 70%. I'm sure its lower now. But she still has a good chance of being elected next year. In one poll she even beat very popular Richard Blumenthal 49%-46%. He had a great chance in 2002 but blew it for unknown reasons.

Now the Republicans here will probably dislike her because she signed the civil unions bill, but please remember that she is the Governor of a pretty liberal state.

Also, she won't give a reprieve to Michael Ross, who will become the first New England citizen to be deliberately  murdered by government decree in 45 YEARS this month, so she is not a RINO.
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A18
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« Reply #38 on: May 11, 2005, 01:54:02 pm »

Heineman looks good, assuming he challenges Nelson and doesn't die fighting a losing battle for Governor.

Ehrlich not too bad actually... internals look quite good. Romney not great but not horrible-- he should run for reelection IMHO.

So far as Pawlenty... when you're hot, you're hot.

And how about some love for Mrs. Lingle down there in Hawaii?

What do you think about John Hoeven in North Dakota? Do you think he could take the Senate seat from Kent Conrad come 2006?
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BushOklahoma
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« Reply #39 on: May 11, 2005, 02:01:34 pm »

Heineman looks good, assuming he challenges Nelson and doesn't die fighting a losing battle for Governor.

Ehrlich not too bad actually... internals look quite good. Romney not great but not horrible-- he should run for reelection IMHO.

So far as Pawlenty... when you're hot, you're hot.

And how about some love for Mrs. Lingle down there in Hawaii?

What do you think about John Hoeven in North Dakota? Do you think he could take the Senate seat from Kent Conrad come 2006?

What party is Hoeven?  If he's Republican, he might be able to take the Senate seat from Kent Conrad, but if he's Democrat, North Dakotans might just stick with Kent, unless Kent throws his hat in the White House ring, or plans on running for the Governor's mansion in 2010.

Thats my take.

Being that far north, how conservative/moderate of a red state is North Dakota?
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A18
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« Reply #40 on: May 11, 2005, 02:08:25 pm »

He's a Republican with a 71% approval rating, re-elected by a 43-point margin, and with only 20% disapproval.

If by how conservative a red state it is, you mean presidential elections, then North Dakota went for Bush by about 20 points.
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BushOklahoma
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« Reply #41 on: May 11, 2005, 02:15:43 pm »

He's a Republican with a 71% approval rating, re-elected by a 43-point margin, and with only 20% disapproval.

If by how conservative a red state it is, you mean presidential elections, then North Dakota went for Bush by about 20 points.

Thanks, A18.  I didn't know how much influence it had from neighboring Democratic Minnesota.
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jfern
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« Reply #42 on: May 11, 2005, 03:15:32 pm »

jfern,

What are people saying about Arnold's chances for re-election?  Who all has jumped into the race, yet?

Back in November when Arnold had about a 70% approval rating (gee a 30% drop), everyone thought it was a foregon conclusion. The front-runner Democratic candidate is State Treasurer Angelides, but State Controller Westly is also running.

Arnold's approval rating has dropped since any match up polls, I don't think he has a 15 point lead any more.
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muon2
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« Reply #43 on: May 11, 2005, 03:28:08 pm »


Rod Blagojevich   D   36%   54%

Yet Blagojevich is cited as a possible 2008 contender?


I've been posting a number of serious threats to Gov. Rod for some time now on this board. He staked his reputation on being clean from corrupt government. The scandalous behavior associated with his administration look like business as usual to many Illinoisans. His public fight with his family tanished his original shiny image. His fights with the General Assembly has prevented any meaningful reform, and since the Dems control the legislature the public isn't going to blame partisan squabbling.

There will be a serious well-funded GOP candidate for Gov next year in IL. If the party can keep from beating itself up to much in the primary, it will be an interesting race. A quote from GOP candidate Jim Ryan in his 2002 debate with Blagojevich on the problems facing the state, "Whoever wins this race is going to be a one-term Governor."
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MHS2002
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« Reply #44 on: May 11, 2005, 03:38:20 pm »

Please Hoeven run for Senate! These numbers, if they're fairly accurate, bode well for Hoeven should he decide to challenge Conrad. A Hoeven-Conrad race would be a barnburner for sure.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #45 on: May 11, 2005, 04:08:10 pm »

Granholm's rating is higher it was in the upper 50's in the last poll of course that polling firm is not that good.
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AkSaber
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« Reply #46 on: May 11, 2005, 04:14:03 pm »

^ Why do you think so many people disapprove of him?

When Frank Murkowski took over, the state was faced with a major budget gap. To fix it, he cut spending from just about everything he could. Benefits for the elderly were hit hard. As well as education. To raise money, he proposed all sorts of new taxes. He wanted to tax studded tires and dip into oil revenue, which is supposed to go to Alaskan residents, not the state. The taxes and trying to get into the Permanent Fund hurt him the most. It could be said that he had to make the decisions that Tony Knowles was too afraid to make.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #47 on: May 11, 2005, 04:32:58 pm »

Ed rendeLl is going 2 win by a bazillion points lol lo

The unfortunate thing is that some people in this state actually believe that.
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Alcon
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« Reply #48 on: May 11, 2005, 06:17:15 pm »

I think I can do a bit to explain the "red states with blue governors" phenomenon: perhaps the reason is that governors who are of a different party than most of the electorate are likely to be moderates, and when governors don't anger either party (moderates are less likely to), the independents and both parties like them a lot more.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #49 on: May 12, 2005, 01:40:40 am »

I found Schwarzenegger's numbers the most shocking:
40% Approve 56% Disapprove
A really huge gender gap of 16%.  He is 48%:49% among men, 32%:64% among women.
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