Illinois Trend by County: 1976-2012

[ElectionsGuy]

I thought the Wisconsin one was well recieved, so I did one on Illinois. Same idea, its the political movement of counties over time, not how they voted. These compare the counties compared to how the state voted, not the nation to erase any state bias. I did these in six increments on each side (though only two are needed for Democratic trends) of 12. Here they are with an example county...

D+0-11.9 (Kane)
D+12 and over (Cook)

R+0-11.9 (Will)
R+12-23.9 (St Clair)
R+24-35.9 (Tazewell)
R+36-47.9 (Clinton)
R+48-59.9 (Williamson)
R+60 and over (Effingham)



Since there's a bigger range here, there's a few misleading things. First DuPage and Cook are both at the end of the 12-24 trend range (23 and 22 respectively), Lake is right on edge at 12. So the state looks like it massively trended Republican, but the two most populated counties trended the most D. Also, Peoria, Rock Island, and Champaign counties all had less than 0.5% movement. I'll answer any specific county requests. The highest trend was Wayne which was a 68 point Republican trend!

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Very cool map, thank you! As usual, Will County continues to surprise me in its voting tendencies

[CountyTy90]

Awesome map! Kendall County really just shows how the Republicans have lost/are losing a lot of northern suburbs. This county in the South would vote overwhelmingly for Republican candidates by a huge margin; the entire county is one big subdivision. And for a small town person like me the traffic is absolutely terrible.

Very cool map, thank you! As usual, Will County continues to surprise me in its voting tendencies

Yeah Will County's interesting. You have such a mix of everything there. Super diverse cities, your typical white suburbs, and southern Will County is still almost all farms. But I am surprised to see it has a slight Republican swing to it.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Very cool map, thank you! As usual, Will County continues to surprise me in its voting tendencies

Yeah Will County's interesting. You have such a mix of everything there. Super diverse cities, your typical white suburbs, and southern Will County is still almost all farms. But I am surprised to see it has a slight Republican swing to it.

It probably has to do with the fact that Carter in 1976 performed well with rural areas when Will County was far smaller and definitely more rural, but now you have lots of suburbanites who came from Cook County to escape the rising cost of living and vote Republican on "muh taxes" and "muh fiscal-conservatism", which partly cancels out the Democrats' better performance in suburbs on social issues.

Though that's just a guess.

[ElectionsGuy]

Awesome map! Kendall County really just shows how the Republicans have lost/are losing a lot of northern suburbs. This county in the South would vote overwhelmingly for Republican candidates by a huge margin; the entire county is one big subdivision. And for a small town person like me the traffic is absolutely terrible.

Very cool map, thank you! As usual, Will County continues to surprise me in its voting tendencies

Yeah Will County's interesting. You have such a mix of everything there. Super diverse cities, your typical white suburbs, and southern Will County is still almost all farms. But I am surprised to see it has a slight Republican swing to it.

Will County was only a 4 point Republican trend, but it most likely has to do with the county being less developed in the 70's compared to now, therefore it voted more like rural Illinois instead of suburban Chicago at the time.

[CountyTy90]

It would be interesting to see Will County's breakdown by township and/or precinct. Hint hint Mr. Illini.

Also, I'm literally on my way to Will County as I type this. Coincidence? I think not...

[bobloblaw]

It would be interesting to see Will County's breakdown by township and/or precinct. Hint hint Mr. Illini.

Also, I'm literally on my way to Will County as I type this. Coincidence? I think not...

Virginia would be nice to see

[Mr. Illini]

It would be interesting to see Will County's breakdown by township and/or precinct. Hint hint Mr. Illini.

Also, I'm literally on my way to Will County as I type this. Coincidence? I think not...

This is something I would like to do

[sg0508]

And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.

[ElectionsGuy]

And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.

What I've been desperately trying to figure out is why the Chicago suburbs and the Milwaukee suburbs have moved in opposite directions over the past 30 or so years. They're similar in so many ways but so different in their trends.

[Gass3268]

And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.

What I've been desperately trying to figure out is why the Chicago suburbs and the Milwaukee suburbs have moved in opposite directions over the past 30 or so years. They're similar in so many ways but so different in their trends.

This article also brings up some good points

[bobloblaw]

you map is why IL should boot Cook County from the state.

[Hydera]

And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.

What I've been desperately trying to figure out is why the Chicago suburbs and the Milwaukee suburbs have moved in opposite directions over the past 30 or so years. They're similar in so many ways but so different in their trends.

Chicago Suburbs: Whites moving to other states from the metro Chicago Suburbs------>Cheap houses----->Blacks/Latinos move in----->More lean democratic trend

Milwaukee Suburbs:Middle+Working Class whites moving from Milwaukee to Milwaukee suburbs = consolidation of republican voting blocs.

[Nyvin]

The map looks like a disaster for the Democrats until you realize 47% of the state's population is in Cook and DuPage counties....while all the deep red counties south of Springfield make up about 12% of the state's population.

[Adam Griffin]

I'll admit that I thought this to be a bit useless, but it is actually pretty cool. My initial feeling did lead me to create a 1976-2012 swing map of Georgia (LOL), which was more interesting than what I expected. If only it were possible to create a trend map over the same time period...LOL.

[Mr. Illini]

And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.

What I've been desperately trying to figure out is why the Chicago suburbs and the Milwaukee suburbs have moved in opposite directions over the past 30 or so years. They're similar in so many ways but so different in their trends.

The two areas are much more different than you think. Chicago's suburbs are much older and, as a result, the large inner ring is very urban (Evanston, Oak Park, Skokie, Cicero, Berwyn, etc etc...all urban and liberal).

Additionally you have more diversity: Jewish areas like Highland Park and Buffalo Grove, Hispanic areas like Waukegan and Round Lake, black majority suburbs south of the city. Plus many of the wealthier white suburbs are very well educated and are either tepid on or have totally left the GOP.

This leaves only limited areas southwest and far northwest of the city like Naperville, Orland Park, Barrington, McHenry, etc that could pass for Milwaukee suburbs.

[ElectionsGuy]

The map looks like a disaster for the Democrats until you realize 47% of the state's population is in Cook and DuPage counties....while all the deep red counties south of Springfield make up about 12% of the state's population.

Yeah, and they're both 20+ D trends. The rest of the state overall has to be R+20 though, since they have to even out, but I wish I had a cartogram for a map like this.

And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.

What I've been desperately trying to figure out is why the Chicago suburbs and the Milwaukee suburbs have moved in opposite directions over the past 30 or so years. They're similar in so many ways but so different in their trends.

The two areas are much more different than you think. Chicago's suburbs are much older and, as a result, the large inner ring is very urban (Evanston, Oak Park, Skokie, Cicero, Berwyn, etc etc...all urban and liberal).

Additionally you have more diversity: Jewish areas like Highland Park and Buffalo Grove, Hispanic areas like Waukegan and Round Lake, black majority suburbs south of the city. Plus many of the wealthier white suburbs are very well educated and are either tepid on or have totally left the GOP.

This leaves only limited areas southwest and far northwest of the city like Naperville, Orland Park, Barrington, McHenry, etc that could pass for Milwaukee suburbs.

This is still confusing to me though. The Milwaukee suburbs are very well off and have high levels of education, so that can't be a full explanation. Maybe going to the point earlier that Chicago's suburbs are older, Milwaukee's suburbs are behind the normal times? So following that, we should expect a D trend in the future... (impossible to imagine) And being more diverse isn't the answer either, since whites in the Chicago suburbs are still around 57-58% GOP, while the ones around Milwaukee are close to 70% GOP.

One of the things unique about Milwaukee is its talk radio audience. Perhaps more than any other metro, it has a very large number of people that listen to conservative talk (and I'll do a whole other thread about some of the crazy stuff I've heard accidentally on Milwaukee area talk radio). Without that influence, these type of counties wouldn't be buying the culture war stuff, bullsh**t that I've heard like the "war on Christianity". My parents are perfect examples, they listen to talk radio and eat a lot of it up, and they're not stupid. They by no means represent the average voter at all, but I don't think those counties could be so Republican without a lot of people like my parents. I'm not saying these counties are especially socially conservative either, because they back establishment candidates like Mitt Romney and John McCain in the primaries more than any other counties, but for suburban counties to get more Republican in an era where the Republican party has moved to the right, there's nothing much like it in the upper Midwest. Sorry about the long rant.

[Green Line]

I think the biggest thing that separates the Chicago and Milwaukee suburbs (aside from diversity) is just population density and how developed they are.  The Chicago suburbs are way more built up than Milwaukee's.  There is nothing comparable in the Milwaukee metro to places like Schaumburg, Evanston, or Berwyn.  They are extremely dense in a way that most Milwaukee suburbs are not.  

[All Along The Watchtower]

On the subject of Milwaukee suburbs vs. Chicago ones: looking closely at Census Factfinder stats, I compared Waukesha County, WI to DuPage County, IL. 

Waukesha has a higher percentage of its workforce in manufacturing (18% to DuPage's 12%) and curiously, a higher proportion of those working in management/business/professional occupations are male (59% to DuPage's 51%). Conversely, fewer women in Waukesha County work in those occupations relative to the population than in DuPage. Might these be some clues?

[Mr. Illini]

And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.

What I've been desperately trying to figure out is why the Chicago suburbs and the Milwaukee suburbs have moved in opposite directions over the past 30 or so years. They're similar in so many ways but so different in their trends.

The two areas are much more different than you think. Chicago's suburbs are much older and, as a result, the large inner ring is very urban (Evanston, Oak Park, Skokie, Cicero, Berwyn, etc etc...all urban and liberal).

Additionally you have more diversity: Jewish areas like Highland Park and Buffalo Grove, Hispanic areas like Waukegan and Round Lake, black majority suburbs south of the city. Plus many of the wealthier white suburbs are very well educated and are either tepid on or have totally left the GOP.

This leaves only limited areas southwest and far northwest of the city like Naperville, Orland Park, Barrington, McHenry, etc that could pass for Milwaukee suburbs.

This is still confusing to me though. The Milwaukee suburbs are very well off and have high levels of education, so that can't be a full explanation. Maybe going to the point earlier that Chicago's suburbs are older, Milwaukee's suburbs are behind the normal times? So following that, we should expect a D trend in the future... (impossible to imagine) And being more diverse isn't the answer either, since whites in the Chicago suburbs are still around 57-58% GOP, while the ones around Milwaukee are close to 70% GOP.

It's really difficult to wrap one's mind around, partially perhaps because there are so many factors. Racial minority populations have surely grown in areas like Waukegan, which has helped push Lake County from its solid GOP position in the 1980s.

At the same time, you look at areas like Winnetka and Kenilworth - some of the wealthiest areas in the Midwest - and find that they voted for Obama in 2008 and are 50/50 areas (if with a slight GOP edge) in 2012. These are areas that, if in the Milwaukee suburbs, we would expect to be very solidly GOP. A comparable Wisconsin town may be Elm Grove.

One thing that we may notice is that there are religious differences. Surprising enough to me, they have a similar percentage of non-religious residents (around 40%). However, Elm Grove has more than double the Evangelical population as Winnetka (18-8). This is consistent with the suburban Milwaukee counties, and I did not realize that there was an Evangelical presence there. There is also a higher percentage of Catholics in Winnetka as compared to Elm Grove (37-29). I am guessing that there is a decent percentage of these disaffected, meaning the non-religious percentage in Winnetka (for all intents and purposes) may be higher than reported.

Another difference is in education. If we look at the Milwaukee suburbs, we see that perhaps they have even higher percentages of Bachelor's degree completion than those of Chicago. Yet, if we compare these two towns on post-graduate education, we see that Winnetka has around 30% of the population with a Master's degree with an additional 20% higher than that - coming to around 50% with more than a Bachelor's degree.

Compare this to Elm Grove, that shows around 18% with Master's degree and 15% with higher than that - totaling only 23% of the population with more than a Bachelor's degree.

Perhaps this can give us some insight into the differences between white, specifically wealthy voting differences.

[sg0508]

Look at the last time that IL was competitive at the presidential level - 1988.  George Bush won the state in a back/forth night with Mike Dukakis.  Look at how well Bush did in the suburbs surrounding Cook county. He swamped Dukakis there, and he did very well in the burbs elsewhere across the county.  That gave Bush his victory.  As a suburban voter, one who comes from a family of former moderate republicans that now typically votes democratic at the presidential level, think about the stereotypes that come with the traditional "suburban" voter:

1) Typically well-educated
2) Socially moderate to perhaps left-leaning
3) Middle Class to perhaps upper middle class
4) Big on crime prevention
5) Financial issues matter far more than religious ones
6) Likely (not all of course) more pro choice than pro life
7) Relatively gay friendly

Given what I just said, think about the movement in the parties from the the 80s until now.  That does explain a lot.


As an aside, if I'm not mistaken, one or more of the networks blew the call that night in IL, giving the state to the Democrat and final returns yielded a close, but safe two point margin for Bush.