Illinois Trend by County: 1976-2012

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And "the Collar" is the reason the GOP has little to no shot now at the presidential level in IL.  Like other states with bigtime suburban vote, the GOP lost their support.

[sg0508]

Look at the last time that IL was competitive at the presidential level - 1988.  George Bush won the state in a back/forth night with Mike Dukakis.  Look at how well Bush did in the suburbs surrounding Cook county. He swamped Dukakis there, and he did very well in the burbs elsewhere across the county.  That gave Bush his victory.  As a suburban voter, one who comes from a family of former moderate republicans that now typically votes democratic at the presidential level, think about the stereotypes that come with the traditional "suburban" voter:

1) Typically well-educated
2) Socially moderate to perhaps left-leaning
3) Middle Class to perhaps upper middle class
4) Big on crime prevention
5) Financial issues matter far more than religious ones
6) Likely (not all of course) more pro choice than pro life
7) Relatively gay friendly

Given what I just said, think about the movement in the parties from the the 80s until now.  That does explain a lot.


As an aside, if I'm not mistaken, one or more of the networks blew the call that night in IL, giving the state to the Democrat and final returns yielded a close, but safe two point margin for Bush.