1964: JFK versus Goldwater.

[bobloblaw]

I am sure this must have been discussed before?

[Kingpoleon]

384 - 154
John F. Kennedy(D-MA)/Stuart Symington(D-MO) - 53.6%
Barry Goldwater(R-AZ)/Spiro Agnew(R-MD) - 46.0%

+7.5% GOP

A marginal victory of seven and a half points.

[Crumpets]

Maybe something like this? I'm not super familiar with the individual state dynamics at the time, so this is mostly a combination of the 1960 and 64 maps.

[bobloblaw]

Maybe something like this? I'm not super familiar with the individual state dynamics at the time, so this is mostly a combination of the 1960 and 64 maps.

Yours looks better. Why would everyone assume that Goldwater sweeps the south? No Civil Rights Bill, No Goldwater opposition to the bill, no Freedom Summer. Goldwater while conservative doesnt come across as a racist. JFK and RFK put pressure on MLK to remain quiet until 1965.

My guess is JFK wins 55-45. But that JFK does better than LBJ in the south and much worse on the great plains and rockie mountains.

[Kingpoleon]

JFK would push for civil rights, too. With that, Goldwater either gets a "Southern moderate" or a former Democrat like Smathers or somesuch to begin the Southern strategy.

I suspect Johnson would be dumped in 1964 for the same reasons Agnew nearly was in 1972. With him gone, JFK chooses Symington for great foreign policy experience.

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JFKslide

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Goldwater and JFK are closer ideologically than Nixon and JFK. This one would've been much closer but a Goldwater win. 270's to 260's

[bobloblaw]

Goldwater and JFK are closer ideologically than Nixon and JFK. This one would've been much closer but a Goldwater win. 270's to 260's

?

[bobloblaw]

JFK would push for civil rights, too. With that, Goldwater either gets a "Southern moderate" or a former Democrat like Smathers or somesuch to begin the Southern strategy.

I suspect Johnson would be dumped in 1964 for the same reasons Agnew nearly was in 1972. With him gone, JFK chooses Symington for great foreign policy experience.

He might push it, but he'd get no where with it.

JFK already has foreign policy experience.

Dropping LBJ, means losing TX. The fact he was in Dallas on 11/22/63 means he had no plans top lose TX or drop LBJ

[heatmaster]

I think the map which bobloblaw constructed. The idea that JFK going to Dallas to bolster his support in Texas in '64, suggests to me that LBJ was staying on the ticket and the fact that Texas was very much on JFK's radar, meant that LBJ was central to JFK's reelection prospects.  Symington he didn't much know about, while LBJ whatever the personal issues were, was easier to keep than dump. Symington wasn't owed anything by JFK, where as LBJ ensured victory for JFK in 1960. There was also the matter of institutional and political memory to consider. Keeping LBJ was also tidier politically and JFK was no fool.

[Kingpoleon]

I think the map which bobloblaw constructed. The idea that JFK going to Dallas to bolster his support in Texas in '64, suggests to me that LBJ was staying on the ticket and the fact that Texas was very much on JFK's radar, meant that LBJ was central to JFK's reelection prospects.  Symington he didn't much know about, while LBJ whatever the personal issues were, was easier to keep than dump. Symington wasn't owed anything by JFK, where as LBJ ensured victory for JFK in 1960. There was also the matter of institutional and political memory to consider. Keeping LBJ was also tidier politically and JFK was no fool.

You do understand JFK would have later met with Coke Stevenson?

I suspect Stevenson wanted Kennedy to convince Connally to lead a coup against Johnson. Kennedy's reported planned meeting afterwards with Stevenson is actually one of the few pieces of evidence favoring a Johnson-assassination plot against Kennedy.

[bobloblaw]

I think the map which bobloblaw constructed. The idea that JFK going to Dallas to bolster his support in Texas in '64, suggests to me that LBJ was staying on the ticket and the fact that Texas was very much on JFK's radar, meant that LBJ was central to JFK's reelection prospects.  Symington he didn't much know about, while LBJ whatever the personal issues were, was easier to keep than dump. Symington wasn't owed anything by JFK, where as LBJ ensured victory for JFK in 1960. There was also the matter of institutional and political memory to consider. Keeping LBJ was also tidier politically and JFK was no fool.

You do understand JFK would have later met with Coke Stevenson?

I suspect Stevenson wanted Kennedy to convince Connally to lead a coup against Johnson. Kennedy's reported planned meeting afterwards with Stevenson is actually one of the few pieces of evidence favoring a Johnson-assassination plot against Kennedy.

crazytown

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Kennedy/ Johnson - 417 EV
Goldwater/Miller - 121 EV

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Goldwater and JFK are closer ideologically than Nixon and JFK. This one would've been much closer but a Goldwater win. 270's to 260's

?

Contrary to popular belief, JFK was more conservative than what most of you think. Goldwater and JFK were actually pretty good friends.

[Kingpoleon]

I think the map which bobloblaw constructed. The idea that JFK going to Dallas to bolster his support in Texas in '64, suggests to me that LBJ was staying on the ticket and the fact that Texas was very much on JFK's radar, meant that LBJ was central to JFK's reelection prospects.  Symington he didn't much know about, while LBJ whatever the personal issues were, was easier to keep than dump. Symington wasn't owed anything by JFK, where as LBJ ensured victory for JFK in 1960. There was also the matter of institutional and political memory to consider. Keeping LBJ was also tidier politically and JFK was no fool.

You do understand JFK would have later met with Coke Stevenson?

I suspect Stevenson wanted Kennedy to convince Connally to lead a coup against Johnson. Kennedy's reported planned meeting afterwards with Stevenson is actually one of the few pieces of evidence favoring a Johnson-assassination plot against Kennedy.

crazytown

I agree with you that Johnson didn't assassinate Kennedy. Is that what you're saying?

I disagree if you're denying that he was meeting with non-Johnson members of the Texas establishment.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

JFK was pretty popular, he'd do well, and would improve on most places from '60 even against a generic Republican. much less someone as controversial as Goldwater.      He pushes for CRA, might not get it though by the election, so the backlash in the South is lessened a bit in areas with the strongest local Dem traditions, though on the other hand there is a northern papist running instead of a Southern LBJ. 

[Mr. Smith]

Roughly this.

[Lincoln Republican]

JFK would keep LBJ on the ticket.  

Dropping LBJ from the ticket would be a foolish political move by JFK and would be resented by large segments of the Democratic Party.  And JFK was not foolish.  

Against Goldwater, JFK would easily be reelected President in 1964, with or without LBJ, but even though there was animosity between JFK and LBJ and between LBJ and RFK, I do not believe that JFK would drop LBJ.  After all, the President and Vice President do not really have to see each other all that often anyway.

The only way that LBJ would not be on the ticket in 1964 would be if LBJ told JFK he would not run again as Vice President.  

Vietnam would become JFK's problem, not LBJ's, and if JFK mishandled the Vietnam issue like LBJ did, then JFK would be the one vilified for causing the needless deaths of thousands of young Americans, not LBJ.  If, however, JFK handled the Vietnam situation well, then JFK would go down in history as a great President.

The Great Society would have to wait, unless JFK took up the issue.

LBJ either retires to his Texas ranch in 1969, never having achieved his lifelong ambition of becoming President of the United States, or runs for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 1968, likely facing younger, more dynamic opponents for the nomination, and if he does win the nomination, attempting to win election as a Democrat, after two terms of Democratic administrations already.

So I would say, under these circumstances, LBJ's chances of being elected President in 1968 would be slim.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

President John F. Kennedy (D-MA)/Vice Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX): 493 EVs (56% PV)
Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-AZ)/Rep. William Miller (R-NY): 45 EVs (42% PV)

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Indiana will go Goldwater.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Goldwater and JFK are closer ideologically than Nixon and JFK. This one would've been much closer but a Goldwater win. 270's to 260's

?

Contrary to popular belief, JFK was more conservative than what most of you think. Goldwater and JFK were actually pretty good friends.

So where Obama and Tom Coburn, numbskull.