VT-GOV: Phil Scott in

[smoltchanov]

We also have to remember being popular in a joke position like Lt. governor does not imply carrying that popularity over to a position of actual power.

If much more conservative Brian Dubie almost won in 2010 and nobody Scott Milne - in 2014, and Jim Douglas held governorship since 2002 to 2010 - i don't see reasons why moderate (very moderate, in fact) Scott can't win. And no, please no idiocy about Obama's percentage in Vermont...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

True, and he is most likely slightly favoured at this point. But my point remains: Lt Gov is much easier to maintain your popularity as it effectively becomes almost no partisan.

[smoltchanov]

True, and he is most likely slightly favoured at this point. But my point remains: Lt Gov is much easier to maintain your popularity as it effectively becomes almost no partisan.

Agree, of course.

[sg0508]

The Liet. Governors' chances are often tied to the popularity of the governor, if they are of the same party.  When they differ, then who knows how it really works?

Either way, I like seeing the blue state Republicans win, and red state Democrats.  It usually forces them to work towards the middle, which in my opinion, gets the most done, especially when dealing with a heavily tilted legislature.

[smoltchanov]

The Liet. Governors' chances are often tied to the popularity of the governor, if they are of the same party.  When they differ, then who knows how it really works?

Either way, I like seeing the blue state Republicans win, and red state Democrats.  It usually forces them to work towards the middle, which in my opinion, gets the most done, especially when dealing with a heavily tilted legislature.

+100. Exactly my thoughts too... Though i have additional reasons for my strong interest in relatively conservative Democrats and relatively liberal  Republicans)) Based on "nature conservation")))

[MT Treasurer]

This happened two weeks ago, but still...

House Speaker Shap Smith (D) drops out of race

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

Yeah, really.  Apparently they never learned anything from eight years of Jim Douglas.  The way a state votes for president is not always an indicator of how it'll go in statewide contests.  Shumlin's job approval isn't all that great, and he barely won in 2014, even as the polls showed him cruising to reelection.  Plus, he's not running this time, so that opens it up even more.

[MT Treasurer]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

Not surprising considering they also have IA listed as a Lean D state and NV as Likely D in 2016.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

Not surprising considering they also have IA listed as a Lean D state and NV as Likely D in 2016.

Agreed on IA.

As for NV - if Trump/Cruz/Carson is going to be the GOP Nominee, Nevada probably doesn't go for them because of its large hispanic population. And yeah, I think it's more likely than not that one of them will receive the nomination. So I can see where the rationale comes from there. But as there is still plenty of time for all three to falter, I think it's best to continue predicting based on a Clinton vs. Generic R scenario, in which NV is Toss-Up/Tilt D.

[Kingpoleon]

If Sanders isn't the nominee, Tilt R because of PUMAs. I'm rating it toss-up for now.

Who the heck thinks Brian Dubie is "much more conservative"?

[smoltchanov]

If Sanders isn't the nominee, Tilt R because of PUMAs. I'm rating it toss-up for now.

Who the heck thinks Brian Dubie is "much more conservative"?

Me. He was ardently pro-life, for example. Scott is solidly pro-choice.

[Sumner 1868]

I doubt Scott wins 2016, but he'll have a very good chance in 2018. Especially if he runs a respectable margin in 2016.

[smoltchanov]

I doubt Scott wins 2016, but he'll have a very good chance in 2018. Especially if he runs a respectable margin in 2016.

He can win even in 2016.. Vermpnt voters are flexible and quite adept at splitting their vote. After all - he rather easily won Lt. Governor election in 2012 despite big Obama win in the state, and Democrats will have rather late (August) and, possibly, divisive, primary in 2016..

[Sumner 1868]

I doubt Scott wins 2016, but he'll have a very good chance in 2018. Especially if he runs a respectable margin in 2016.

He can win even in 2016.. Vermpnt voters are flexible and quite adept at splitting their vote. After all - he rather easily won Lt. Governor election in 2012 despite big Obama win in the state, and Democrats will have rather late (August) and, possibly, divisive, primary in 2016..

But Vermont has not elected a non-incumbent Republican governor in a presidential year since 1976, when it hadn't fully trended Democratic yet. Richard Snelling and Jim Douglas were elected in midterm years. I think it will be difficult for any Republican to take the governorship in a presidential year-even an established winner like Scott.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rothenberg should earn some sort of "Most Idiotic Predictor Award" for still having this race at Safe D.

Not surprising considering they also have IA listed as a Lean D state and NV as Likely D in 2016.

Agreed on IA.

As for NV - if Trump/Cruz/Carson is going to be the GOP Nominee, Nevada probably doesn't go for them because of its large hispanic population. And yeah, I think it's more likely than not that one of them will receive the nomination. So I can see where the rationale comes from there. But as there is still plenty of time for all three to falter, I think it's best to continue predicting based on a Clinton vs. Generic R scenario, in which NV is Toss-Up/Tilt D.

I wouldn't rate Nevada as even Lean D; they have a lot of libertarians and Mormons who could easily offset the Hispanic vote.  That's why I thought it was stupid when pundits were writing off Mitt Romney's chances there (especially because he's a Mormon himself).  Even if Obama did ultimately get the state, it was far from a given.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nevada is a swing Dem state, Vegas is the largest city in Southern Nevada, where Latinos live.  Gives Dems 262 electors, along with NM & Iowa, gives Dems 262 electors, 8 shy of 270.

[ElectionsGuy]

I doubt Scott wins 2016, but he'll have a very good chance in 2018. Especially if he runs a respectable margin in 2016.

He can win even in 2016.. Vermpnt voters are flexible and quite adept at splitting their vote. After all - he rather easily won Lt. Governor election in 2012 despite big Obama win in the state, and Democrats will have rather late (August) and, possibly, divisive, primary in 2016..

But Vermont has not elected a non-incumbent Republican governor in a presidential year since 1976, when it hadn't fully trended Democratic yet. Richard Snelling and Jim Douglas were elected in midterm years. I think it will be difficult for any Republican to take the governorship in a presidential year-even an established winner like Scott.

Its also has had no successive same party governors since 1964, when Republicans dominated the state. Vermont has switched off parties in the governors and its been a tradition for over 50 years. That, of course, doesn't mean it can't be broken, like Pennsylvania's throw out of Corbett, but it sets a standard.

[smoltchanov]

I doubt Scott wins 2016, but he'll have a very good chance in 2018. Especially if he runs a respectable margin in 2016.

He can win even in 2016.. Vermpnt voters are flexible and quite adept at splitting their vote. After all - he rather easily won Lt. Governor election in 2012 despite big Obama win in the state, and Democrats will have rather late (August) and, possibly, divisive, primary in 2016..

But Vermont has not elected a non-incumbent Republican governor in a presidential year since 1976, when it hadn't fully trended Democratic yet. Richard Snelling and Jim Douglas were elected in midterm years. I think it will be difficult for any Republican to take the governorship in a presidential year-even an established winner like Scott.

We will see soon. Of course - it would be easier for him in midterm year, but, IMHO - quite possible in 2016 too...

[IceSpear]

Phil Scott is probably the only Republican in the country that hopes Bernie ISN'T the Democratic nominee.

[smoltchanov]

Phil Scott is probably the only Republican in the country that hopes Bernie ISN'T the Democratic nominee.

And most likely - he will get his wish..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vt isnt that important as say as NH which is very critical in a presidential year.  Dems are more worried about retaining NH than Vt.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Phil Scott is probably the only Republican in the country that hopes Bernie ISN'T the Democratic nominee.

I doubt Scott wins 2016, but he'll have a very good chance in 2018. Especially if he runs a respectable margin in 2016.

He can win even in 2016.. Vermpnt voters are flexible and quite adept at splitting their vote. After all - he rather easily won Lt. Governor election in 2012 despite big Obama win in the state, and Democrats will have rather late (August) and, possibly, divisive, primary in 2016..

But Vermont has not elected a non-incumbent Republican governor in a presidential year since 1976, when it hadn't fully trended Democratic yet. Richard Snelling and Jim Douglas were elected in midterm years. I think it will be difficult for any Republican to take the governorship in a presidential year-even an established winner like Scott.

We will see soon. Of course - it would be easier for him in midterm year, but, IMHO - quite possible in 2016 too...

Two words: ticket splitting.