Emerson College national poll:Republicans leading Clinton and Sanders by 2-7 pts

[Mr. Morden]

Emerson College national poll:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ECPS_Deflategate_POTUS_Release_Sept_9v2.pdf

Bush 47%
Clinton 40%

Walker 45%
Clinton 43%

Carson 47%
Clinton 41%

Romney 47%
Clinton 42%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 43%

Trump 47%
Clinton 43%

Trump 45%
Sanders 38%

Every candidate except Carson is net negative on favorability.

[Skye]

A month ago they were trailing. This is huge.

[Mr. Morden]

Overall Clinton vs. Trump trendline, including all pollsters:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I still expect this to change, but it is pretty clear that, if the primaries were today and the general tomorrow, Donald Trump would be elected President.

[exopolitician]

Pitiful numbers.

[Ljube]

Hillary Clinton

Favorable/unfavorable - 38/56


Donald Trump

Favorable/unfavorable - 40/50


Ben Carson

Favorable/unfavorable - 46/27

[Phony Moderate]

Hillary Clinton

Favorable/unfavorable - 38/56


Donald Trump

Favorable/unfavorable - 40/50

Time for her to drop out?

[HillOfANight]

http://www.amren.com/features/2012/11/race-and-the-2012-election/
81% white vs 74% in 2008 and 72% in 2008.
9% black vs 13% in 2008/2012, and 11% in 2004.
Completely landline polling.

Terrible.

http://www.theecps.com/#!polls/c243u
In their July poll, they at least had 74% white, 10% black.

[Ljube]

These are likely voters, not registered voters.

For a poll of registered voters, see Morning Consult poll.

[HillOfANight]

Likely voters should still be composed of a likely electorate.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_6dffa5c2ac444487a847ea56c2698285.xlsx?dn=ECPS-September-15-RESULTS%20(public).xlsx
Even though their topline is weird and weighted mostly by 2012 vote instead of race, they have very thorough crosstabs in the spreadsheet. She doesn't do completely terrible with the white vote, and if this email noise gets resolved soon, I think she can do better.

In Jeb vs Hillary, Jeb gets 52% of the white vote and she gets 37%.
For Hispanics, he gets 29% and she gets 54%.

In Rubio vs Hillary, he gets 49% of the white vote, she gets 40%.
He gets 27% Hispanic, she gets 66% (very small subsample though).

In Trump vs Clinton, he gets 51% of the white vote, she gets 39%.
He gets 22% Hispanic, and she gets 67%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeb is the most electable as it seems; and Dems are prefer Trump who is leading in polls.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

http://www.amren.com/features/2012/11/race-and-the-2012-election/
81% white vs 74% in 2008 and 72% in 2008.
9% black vs 13% in 2008/2012, and 11% in 2004.
Completely landline polling.

Terrible.

http://www.theecps.com/#!polls/c243u
In their July poll, they at least had 74% white, 10% black.

While that is a small concern, these match most of the national polls of late.

Also, the 2012 vote was 51-47, exactly what it was in real life (in past polls we had actually seen Romney underpolling as is American tradition to say they voted for a winner).

Do we really think there are Obama Dixiecrats out there that are just voting against Hillary? That doesn't make any sense. Who are these Obama/Republican voters, and does their race matter? Even party affiliation doesn't seem to be far off so it's not like Obama-leaning Indies.

[HillOfANight]

Most of the national polls show Clinton leading her Republican opponents.

The white Romney-Obama vote is a lot more flexible than the black equivalent. Absolutely if they weighted to demographics, and not the 2012 vote, they would fall more in line with other polls. If 2008 polls were weighted to 2004 results, McCain would have won.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

4 out of 6 Republicans already at 47% against Mrs. Inevitable. Definitely a bad sign.

[jaichind]

Hillary Clinton

Favorable/unfavorable - 38/56


Donald Trump

Favorable/unfavorable - 40/50


Ben Carson

Favorable/unfavorable - 46/27

Unbelievable.  Trump has higher favorable thank HRC.  Amazing.  I would have never guess such a poll result was even possible.   

[Torie]

The way to get out from under the hole, is for Hillary to have done a complete info dump, and honestly answer every hard question in a press conference, until there were no more questions to be asked. But it's too late for that now. Instead, she dissembled, and spun, and then had to revise and extend and retract, and has caused a decisive majority of the electorate to lose confidence in her. I want to know when she saw those emails with high resolution satellite photographs, just why she didn't think it was a problem that they were on her insecure private server (perhaps she never read them). I want to know if she thought about the legal implications of wiping her server clean (which is now exposing her to a felony rap, if they ever find anything wiped with IT forensics that was government related). Anyway, if she had owed up to all of this at the beginning, and turned the server over without fuss, she would have been forgiven (assuming she did not commit a felony). Now, she will not be. So many politicians never learn this basic lesson.

[Abraham Reagan]

Nice to see they included the Mittster.

[Comrade Funk]

For the sake of the Democratic Party, anyone BUT Hillary. She's the least electable with her honesty cred going down the drain daily