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  CBS News/YouGov: Sanders surging in IA/NH/SC, Trump leads in all 3 states
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Author Topic: CBS News/YouGov: Sanders surging in IA/NH/SC, Trump leads in all 3 states  (Read 4453 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 13, 2015, 09:38:01 am »







http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-tracker-sanders-surges-in-ia-nh-clinton-up-in-sc







http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-tracker-trump-leads-gop-field-in-ia-nh-sc
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2015, 09:40:55 am »

YouGov isn't the best pollster, but these results are shocking for Hilldog.

And this comes with Bernie having enough time to shore up his Blaxican support in SC ...
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2015, 09:41:26 am »

It would be great if this were true, but...
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2015, 09:43:00 am »

Nevada is like the Ron Paul of early primary states.
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2015, 10:00:58 am »

YouGov isn't the best pollster, but these results are shocking for Hilldog.

And this comes with Bernie having enough time to shore up his Blaxican support in SC ...

There aren't many Hispanics in South Carolina. And, an elderly white man isn't really going to spark much excitement among black voters to cause a sharp reversal. Sanders support is overwhelmingly white right now and will stay that way.

I'm afraid to see what sort of names the "Blaxicans" will be called if they don't go for Sanders. I know stupid will be one of them for sure.
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2015, 10:08:06 am »

Well this results are shocking. They also directly contradict PPP's SC poll, which had Sanders at only 9. We'll have to see.
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Why
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2015, 10:21:20 am »

Seems that Sanders is either making up ground very quickly or this poll is biased towards him.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2015, 10:23:57 am »

Horrible #s for Bush across the board. 

He is like a 3rd tier candidate or something now.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2015, 10:24:25 am »

What a summer. From Bush and Clinton to Trump and Sanders.

God bless America.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2015, 10:40:03 am »

Jeb! Bush's campaign is probably on the verge of panic. Early or not, 3% in Iowa and 6% in New Hampshire four months out is not a position any candidate wants to be in. He has a lot of ground to make up and not that much time to do it in.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2015, 10:44:24 am »

Iowa Pubs and I just are not in sync at all. Rubio + Jeb + Kasich + Fiorina + Christie = 16%.  I guess not too many Pubs there are advance degreed gay seculars - or something. Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2015, 10:51:36 am »

Jeb! Bush's campaign is probably on the verge of panic. Early or not, 3% in Iowa and 6% in New Hampshire four months out is not a position any candidate wants to be in. He has a lot of ground to make up and not that much time to do it in.

When Jeb! tries to go "high energy" in the next debate, do you think it will be in the context of lashing out at Trump in kind of a frustrated way, or will be more about him being relaxed and jovial and articulate and passionate about his views on where then nation needs to go and how? Because if it is the former, it's not going to be pretty. Jeb! just doesn't do well in mosh pit fights, and will seem weak and whiney. He really needs to sell himself, and ignore Trump. But he can't seem to sell himself out of a paper bag. That is what Carly did in the last debate. She sold herself, and folks said hey, this is one smart and informed and articulate lady, who can frame issues and arguments that work like a Swiss watch.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2015, 10:56:42 am »

Seems that Sanders is either making up ground very quickly or this poll is biased towards him.

Assuming this is still basically an internet-exclusive poll (irrespective of the refinements of the methodology), it likely favors Sanders to some degree. However, I tend to also believe that the PPP poll is favoring Clinton to a similar degree. Presidential primaries are largely nationalized affairs at this point and it makes absolutely no sense for Sanders to be receiving anywhere from 30-40% of the white vote nationally and in most states, but only 10-20% in SC (hopefully everyone will save the "but muh southern whites don't like Bernie" nonsense).
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Simfan34
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2015, 11:11:52 am »

Junk poll.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2015, 11:25:27 am »

And this comes with Bernie having enough time to shore up his Blaxican support in SC ...

I cringe when Austrumpians start talking about minorities.
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Flake
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2015, 11:27:18 am »

Oh my god this is fantastic news! Cheesy
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2015, 11:31:46 am »

What a summer. From Bush and Clinton to Trump and Sanders.
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2015, 11:33:49 am »

YouGov isn't the best pollster, but these results are shocking for Hilldog.

And this comes with Bernie having enough time to shore up his Blaxican support in SC ...

Pretty unbelievable that we have a creepy, insane xenophobe who can't stop repeating his made-up "Blaxican" word moderating this forum. Embarassing.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2015, 11:58:42 am »

YouGov isn't the best pollster, but these results are shocking for Hilldog.

And this comes with Bernie having enough time to shore up his Blaxican support in SC ...

Pretty unbelievable that we have a creepy, insane xenophobe who can't stop repeating his made-up "Blaxican" word moderating this forum. Embarassing.
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Why
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« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2015, 12:00:27 pm »

Seems that Sanders is either making up ground very quickly or this poll is biased towards him.

Assuming this is still basically an internet-exclusive poll (irrespective of the refinements of the methodology), it likely favors Sanders to some degree. However, I tend to also believe that the PPP poll is favoring Clinton to a similar degree. Presidential primaries are largely nationalized affairs at this point and it makes absolutely no sense for Sanders to be receiving anywhere from 30-40% of the white vote nationally and in most states, but only 10-20% in SC (hopefully everyone will save the "but muh southern whites don't like Bernie" nonsense).

As regards to the SC poll that might be true. However when you look at the New Hampshire poll, that also has Sanders much higher than in other polls on RCP. The three most recent there are low 40s. The trend is for Sanders to be improving but the size of this jump seems unlikely. It is quite possible he could reach there in another month though. The polling in Iowa has been a bit more inconsistent in other polls but this poll for Iowa is also better for Sanders than any poll on RCP.

All three together indicate that there is probably a bit of a bias towards Sanders in these polls. However they might be replicated soon if Sanders continues to improve his position in the polls as he has been lately.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2015, 12:11:05 pm »

Why is the Austroracist still moderating this forum?!
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2015, 12:33:58 pm »

With Biden a no go; Clinton should reestablish her lead in Iowa.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2015, 12:37:55 pm »

Presidential primaries are largely nationalized affairs at this point and it makes absolutely no sense for Sanders to be receiving anywhere from 30-40% of the white vote nationally and in most states, but only 10-20% in SC (hopefully everyone will save the "but muh southern whites don't like Bernie" nonsense).

Why does that make no sense?  White Democrats in different parts of the country are pretty different.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2015, 02:52:54 pm »

I'm very surprised by just how strong Trump is in New Hampshire.

For the past few cycles, establishment Republicans have relied on the state to counter Iowa's insurgent winner.  That plan has gone up in smoke, and unless Walker can stage a miraculous comeback Iowa's lost too (either to Cruz, Trump, or Carson).

South Carolina is just as bad, which makes ignored and neglected Nevada the last hope for the establishment in the early states.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2015, 03:06:04 pm »

YouGov is fantastic, but those SC-D numbers make me concerned. No way is Sanders at 23% there. I don't care if he just did some HBCU presentation or whatever. Maybe soon but certainly not yet.

Also, I kind of get why Trump is praising Cruz now. Those Cruz voters are probably 2nd choice Carson. He might win Iowa in a plurality thanks to those two splitting and then win the next three in blowouts. Another absolutely genius move that shows why he deserves the Presidency.
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