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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #525 on: March 22, 2018, 09:58:17 PM »

Something very important we all must remember, Turnbull is currently on 28 lost in a row, so in maybe 6 weeks we get a giant Abbott meltdown over 30 lost in a row!
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if there are more people who freak out than just Abbott
Oh yeah, It's times like this I'm happy we have Sky News. Bolt is going to go troppo, as will Credlin. It's just that Abbott is going to be doing his "I'm not sniping or underminding" speel as he does just that. And that's not to mention Jones&Co on talkback.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #526 on: March 22, 2018, 09:59:46 PM »

chances of Turnbull making it through to next election?
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Lachi
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« Reply #527 on: March 22, 2018, 10:50:35 PM »

chances of Turnbull making it through to next election?
I think that it's slightly more likely than not, but I'd put it at 55-60%
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #528 on: March 22, 2018, 10:52:27 PM »

chances of Turnbull making it through to next election?
60/40 That he makes it to 2019, but he's dead on arrival. No matter the leader the Liberals are losing in 2019. The polls are currently 54-46 Labor, and a 4.36% uniform swing gives them a 20 seat gain (all from the Libs). And the polls aren't getting any better for the Libs, and if they switch leaders then they're switching to a conservative and that's just going to make it even worse. The only benefit is that if Labor gets over 51.24% on uniform swing then Mr. Potato-head, I mean Mr. Dutton, is gone.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #529 on: March 22, 2018, 10:54:01 PM »

chances of Turnbull making it through to next election?
I think that it's slightly more likely than not, but I'd put it at 55-60%
I think if we drop below 45% for a few newspolls in a row then change is on the cards. We're currently at 46% and if we drop much further then the conservatives will get restless.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #530 on: March 22, 2018, 10:55:45 PM »

chances of Turnbull making it through to next election?
60/40 That he makes it to 2019, but he's dead on arrival. No matter the leader the Liberals are losing in 2019. The polls are currently 54-46 Labor, and a 4.36% uniform swing gives them a 20 seat gain (all from the Libs). And the polls aren't getting any better for the Libs, and if they switch leaders then they're switching to a conservative and that's just going to make it even worse. The only benefit is that if Labor gets over 51.24% on uniform swing then Mr. Potato-head, I mean Mr. Dutton, is gone.
Oh and on a 3.34% swing, or 52.98 TPP then they defeat George Christensen.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #531 on: March 22, 2018, 10:59:44 PM »

chances of Turnbull making it through to next election?
60/40 That he makes it to 2019, but he's dead on arrival. No matter the leader the Liberals are losing in 2019. The polls are currently 54-46 Labor, and a 4.36% uniform swing gives them a 20 seat gain (all from the Libs). And the polls aren't getting any better for the Libs, and if they switch leaders then they're switching to a conservative and that's just going to make it even worse. The only benefit is that if Labor gets over 51.24% on uniform swing then Mr. Potato-head, I mean Mr. Dutton, is gone.
Oh and on a 3.34% swing, or 52.98 TPP then they defeat George Christensen.
On 53.27 TPP, or a swing of 3.63% Attorney General Christian Porter falls, and on 3.95% swing, or 53.59 TPP Warren Entsch falls.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #532 on: March 22, 2018, 11:05:07 PM »

I sort of hope Labor gets a landslide so we can get a good pruning of Liberals. Pyne and Keenan fall on 6%, Hunt (aka Lump of Coal) and O'Dwyer fall on 8%, and Andrews falls on 10% (yes I now Labor isn't getting 60% but I really hate Andrews.)
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Lachi
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« Reply #533 on: March 22, 2018, 11:15:02 PM »

If any leader on the conservative right gets in, Labor could actually get in the high 90s imo. 100 seats won't happen, although if Dutton ever become leader, you never know...
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #534 on: March 22, 2018, 11:35:50 PM »

If any leader on the conservative right gets in, Labor could actually get in the high 90s imo. 100 seats won't happen, although if Dutton ever become leader, you never know...
If we do switch leaders then I sort of want Dutton because, although his PMship will be horrific he'll almost certainly lose his seat at the end of it even if it's only a small swing. Abbott on the other hand, is my MP and although I hate his guts there's no way he's losing Warringah. We won't de-select him, and he's not being defeated, however much I'd love to see his face in defeat.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #535 on: March 22, 2018, 11:38:00 PM »

If any leader on the conservative right gets in, Labor could actually get in the high 90s imo. 100 seats won't happen, although if Dutton ever become leader, you never know...
You only need a 4% swing for 90 seats, and a 6% swing for 100. If we choose a Conservative I wouldn't rule out a 6% swing against us, especially if we get Potato Head and he goes full police-state on us.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #536 on: March 25, 2018, 07:40:58 PM »

The Aust. Conservatives are set to lose all representation in South Australia, after Dennis Hood has defected to the SA Liberal Party, leaving just 1 MLC in Victoria, and Sen. Cory Bernadi, with Robert Brokenshire almost certain to lose his seat in the SA LC.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-26/australian-conservatives-mp-dennis-hood-joins-liberals/9586822
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #537 on: March 25, 2018, 08:07:35 PM »

Dennis Hood, the Conservative MLC elected in 2014, has defected to the Liberals.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #538 on: March 26, 2018, 09:29:33 PM »

Yesterday Turnbull lost newspoll 29. 1 more until Tony Abbott meltdown.
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GoTfan
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« Reply #539 on: March 26, 2018, 09:44:05 PM »

Yesterday Turnbull lost newspoll 29. 1 more until Tony Abbott meltdown.

Labor Party member here. Getting popcorn.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #540 on: March 26, 2018, 10:32:56 PM »

Yesterday Turnbull lost newspoll 29. 1 more until Tony Abbott meltdown.

Labor Party member here. Getting popcorn.
Soaking wet Liberal who has the misfortune to reside in the Division of Warringah. Ditto.
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GoTfan
GoTfan21
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« Reply #541 on: March 27, 2018, 12:53:28 AM »

Yesterday Turnbull lost newspoll 29. 1 more until Tony Abbott meltdown.

Labor Party member here. Getting popcorn.
Soaking wet Liberal who has the misfortune to reside in the Division of Warringah. Ditto.

Well, is it possible he faces a revolt at any point?
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GoTfan21
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« Reply #542 on: March 27, 2018, 05:16:45 PM »

As if the defeat on the tax cut wasn't enough, now there's this:

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/comment-abbott-just-gave-the-next-election-away-by-teaming-up-with-hanson/news-story/870b76751168201c9a874163ca8fca8a
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #543 on: March 27, 2018, 06:05:43 PM »

Meanwhile in the Victorian Parliament, a sick day pulled by Aust. Conservatives MLC Rachel Carling-Jenkins has allowed Labor to push it's CFA overhaul bill through the second reading.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/crossbencher-s-sickie-sees-firey-overhaul-inch-closer-to-decisive-vote-20180328-p4z6lr.html
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #544 on: March 27, 2018, 06:15:56 PM »

Yesterday Turnbull lost newspoll 29. 1 more until Tony Abbott meltdown.

Labor Party member here. Getting popcorn.
Soaking wet Liberal who has the misfortune to reside in the Division of Warringah. Ditto.

Well, is it possible he faces a revolt at any point?
The Northern Beaches/North Shore is the heartland of small-l wet Liberals but when we have the misfortune to pre-select a conservative, we never de-select them. It took our branch six hours to de-select Bronwyn, and by a margin of only 51-39. However once he eventually resigns we'll put in a nice Moderate in the vein of Falinski. Important thing to remember is that we North Shore-Northern Beaches Liberals control the NSW Liberals. Since Askin, who represented Pittwater, of our leaders Coleman, McDonald, Dowd, Greiner, Collins, Chikarovski, Brogden, O'Farrell, Baird and Berejiklian were all ours, with only Lewis and Fahey from Wollondilly, Willis from Earlwood, Mason from Dubbo and Debnam from the Eastern Suburbs. We control the party, through our Moderate faction. Just look at our current MPs:
Pittwater - Rob Stokes, Minister for Environment, Planning, Education
Wakehurst - Brad Hazzard, Minster for Planning and Infrastructure, Health, Attorney General
Manly (before by-election) - Mike Baird, Treasurer, Premier
Hornsby - Matt Kean, Minister for Innovation
Ku-ring-gai (before by-election) - Barry O'Farrell, Premier
Davidson - Jonathan O'Dea (most accountable MP)
Willoughby - Gladys Berejiklian, Minster for Transport, Treasurer, Premier
Lane Cove - Anthony Roberts, Minister for Industry, Resources, Energy, Housing, Planning
North Shore (before by-election) - Jillian Skinner, Deputy Leader, Minister for Health
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #545 on: March 27, 2018, 06:16:58 PM »

Yesterday Turnbull lost newspoll 29. 1 more until Tony Abbott meltdown.

Labor Party member here. Getting popcorn.
Soaking wet Liberal who has the misfortune to reside in the Division of Warringah. Ditto.

Well, is it possible he faces a revolt at any point?
The Northern Beaches/North Shore is the heartland of small-l wet Liberals but when we have the misfortune to pre-select a conservative, we never de-select them. It took our branch six hours to de-select Bronwyn, and by a margin of only 51-39. However once he eventually resigns we'll put in a nice Moderate in the vein of Falinski. Important thing to remember is that we North Shore-Northern Beaches Liberals control the NSW Liberals. Since Askin, who represented Pittwater, of our leaders Coleman, McDonald, Dowd, Greiner, Collins, Chikarovski, Brogden, O'Farrell, Baird and Berejiklian were all ours, with only Lewis and Fahey from Wollondilly, Willis from Earlwood, Mason from Dubbo and Debnam from the Eastern Suburbs. We control the party, through our Moderate faction. Just look at our current MPs:
Pittwater - Rob Stokes, Minister for Environment, Planning, Education
Wakehurst - Brad Hazzard, Minster for Planning and Infrastructure, Health, Attorney General
Manly (before by-election) - Mike Baird, Treasurer, Premier
Hornsby - Matt Kean, Minister for Innovation
Ku-ring-gai (before by-election) - Barry O'Farrell, Premier
Davidson - Jonathan O'Dea (most accountable MP)
Willoughby - Gladys Berejiklian, Minster for Transport, Treasurer, Premier
Lane Cove - Anthony Roberts, Minister for Industry, Resources, Energy, Housing, Planning
North Shore (before by-election) - Jillian Skinner, Deputy Leader, Minister for Health
Short Answer, No chance of pre-selection, but when he retires we're not preselecting his candidate.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #546 on: March 29, 2018, 10:59:19 PM »

In Victoria's upper house again. 2 Liberal MLCs bent the voting rules today to vote down the Labor Govt's Fire services overhaul bill. These 2 MLCs have said that they could not vote or be present in the chamber today because of "religious beliefs" have just showed up anyway and voted. Both the government and the crossbench went into uproar over it.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-fire-service-rejig-goes-pear-shaped-after-paired-pair-reappear-20180330-p4z73j.html
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GoTfan
GoTfan21
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« Reply #547 on: March 30, 2018, 06:55:50 PM »

In Victoria's upper house again. 2 Liberal MLCs bent the voting rules today to vote down the Labor Govt's Fire services overhaul bill. These 2 MLCs have said that they could not vote or be present in the chamber today because of "religious beliefs" have just showed up anyway and voted. Both the government and the crossbench went into uproar over it.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-fire-service-rejig-goes-pear-shaped-after-paired-pair-reappear-20180330-p4z73j.html

As they should. You can't get away with lying like this. I'll bet they only turned up when it became apparent the government would win.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #548 on: April 02, 2018, 10:49:04 PM »

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/it-was-my-decision-matthew-guy-defends-breaking-of-pair-deal-20180403-p4z7ia.html

Polling collapse inevitable.
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GoTfan
GoTfan21
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« Reply #549 on: April 03, 2018, 07:47:05 PM »


Is this guy trying to be Tunbull Jr. or something?
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