Australia General Discussion 2.0

[Lachi]

The message that is being given off by the Libs right now seems to be that they are really just giving up all hope of winning the next election, yet still seem to want to make it worse for them.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The message that is being given off by the Libs right now seems to be that they are really just giving up all hope of winning the next election, yet still seem to want to make it worse for them.

The Right wants to sink Turnbull, because they somehow think that although Turnbull will definitely lose the next election, Abbott could easily win it. Yes, they genuinely believe that.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The AEC has finalised the Victorian redistribution.
Other than minor changes around the edges the only change from the provisional boundaries are the names. Corangamite isn't renamed to Cox and Batman is renamed to Cooper.
The redistribution affects the parties, with Labor gaining 2 seats and the Liberals losing 1.

[Lachi]

Here's the old, draft and new margins for the new seats in victoria, sourced from the tally room.

(I will point out, some margins are inflated due to some reason, for instance, the seat of Nicholls (formerly Murray) is inflated as both the Liberals and National ran there in 2016. On a normal NAT vs LAB race, it'd be around 18-19%, not 22%

[Lachi]

And here is the map (using the draft map, as the actual maps of the final boundaries have not been released, but they will be almost exactly the same anyway)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-22/salim-mehajer-sentencing/9898398
Yes!

[Lachi]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-22/salim-mehajer-sentencing/9898398
Yes!

Good riddance, about bloody time.

[Lachi]

Darling Range state by-election result:
LIB GAIN

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Darling Range state by-election, 2018

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Liberal	Alyssa Hayden	8,235	34.4	+4.0
Labor	Tania Lawrence	7,690	32.1	−9.4
One Nation	Rod Caddies	1,867	7.8	−0.9
Greens	Anthony Pyle	1,396	5.8	−1.8
Western Australia	Russell Goodrick	1,389	5.8	+5.8
Christians	Erick Eikelboom	1,128	4.7	+0.3
Shooters	Stuart Ostle	1,081	4.5	+0.3
Animal Justice	Jehni Thomas-Wurth	787	3.3	+3.3
Independent	Doug Shaw	140	0.6	+0.6
Independent	George O'Byrne	131	0.5	+0.5
Fluoride Free WA	John Watt	102	0.4	+0.4
	Total formal votes	23,946	95.6	+0.5
	Informal votes	1,089	4.4	−0.5
	Turnout	25,044	76.9	(−12.6)
Liberal	Alyssa Hayden	12,750	53.3	+9.1
Labor	Tania Lawrence	11,169	46.7	−9.1
Liberal gain from Labor		Swing	+9.1

[Meclazine for Israel]

I have to admit, you know more about Perth politics than i.

I would vote for the "Fluoride Free WA" party if i had the chance.

[GoTfan]

Did anyone catch Leyonhjelm once again being the piece of s**t he is?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Grant Denyer wins the Gold Logie after Family Feud got the axe earlier in 2018.

The corruption of those awards is brazen and appalling.

[GoTfan]

And One Nation has preferenced a literal criminal Neo-Nazi.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Liberals ahead on a 2 party preferred basis. Malcolm is looking confident.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Liberals ahead on a 2 party preferred basis. Malcolm is looking confident.

Wait, we are? For real this time? In an actual poll? Not one of our internal push-polls? Is this Federal or in one of the by-elections?

[Lachi]

Liberals ahead on a 2 party preferred basis. Malcolm is looking confident.

Wait, we are? For real this time? In an actual poll? Not one of our internal push-polls? Is this Federal or in one of the by-elections?

It would be the ReachTel poll for Longman. People shouldn't be looking too much into individual seat polls though, as they are historically horrible, especially ReachTel

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Liberals ahead on a 2 party preferred basis. Malcolm is looking confident.

Wait, we are? For real this time? In an actual poll? Not one of our internal push-polls? Is this Federal or in one of the by-elections?

It would be the ReachTel poll for Longman. People shouldn't be looking too much into individual seat polls though, as they are historically horrible, especially ReachTel

We've been up or tied in every poll in Longman.

[Lachi]

Liberals ahead on a 2 party preferred basis. Malcolm is looking confident.

Wait, we are? For real this time? In an actual poll? Not one of our internal push-polls? Is this Federal or in one of the by-elections?

It would be the ReachTel poll for Longman. People shouldn't be looking too much into individual seat polls though, as they are historically horrible, especially ReachTel

We've been up or tied in every poll in Longman.

tbf, we were also up or tied in both Bennelong and Darling Range.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Liberals ahead on a 2 party preferred basis. Malcolm is looking confident.

Wait, we are? For real this time? In an actual poll? Not one of our internal push-polls? Is this Federal or in one of the by-elections?

It would be the ReachTel poll for Longman. People shouldn't be looking too much into individual seat polls though, as they are historically horrible, especially ReachTel

We've been up or tied in every poll in Longman.

tbf, we were also up or tied in both Bennelong and Darling Range.

HQ: "Well Bennelong and Darling Range are completely different situations, it was obvious they would lose both of them. Longman and Braddon on the other hand..."

[Lachi]

Nutjobs now swarming over Emma Husar and her seat saying it's a solid Liberal gain even if she is booted out by the party.

God people are idiots...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Nutjobs now swarming over Emma Husar and her seat saying it's a solid Liberal gain even if she is booted out by the party.

God people are idiots...

It's far from certain, but Lindsay is definitely the sort of seat we really want a by-election in. Though hopefully we could run someone new, rather than Fiona again.

[Lachi]

Well, I don't think the greens will win Batman/Cooper in the next election.

THEY ARE RUNNING THE BULLY ALEX BHATHAL IN THE SEAT FOR THE SEVENTH TIME!!! HAHAHAHA.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Well, I don't think the greens will win Batman/Cooper in the next election.

THEY ARE RUNNING THE BULLY ALEX BHATHAL IN THE SEAT FOR THE SEVENTH TIME!!! HAHAHAHA.

Can't they find ANYONE better? Anyone?

[Lachi]

If the Greens run a good and competent national campaign, there are quite a few sleepers that could come into play at this point. Macnamara should fall, Labor screwed themselves in preselection, but seats like Ryan, Brisbane, Wills, Higgins, Richmond, etc. could at least come into play.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If the Greens run a good and competent national campaign, there are quite a few sleepers that could come into play at this point. Macnamara should fall, Labor screwed themselves in preselection, but seats like Ryan, Brisbane, Wills, Higgins, Richmond, etc. could at least come into play.

I agree with you on Wills and Higgins and maybe Brisbane, but Richmond lost Nimbin and gained Ballina in 2016, and even though the Greens are hitting 50% in Byron they can barely break 10% in Tweed Heads. And Ryan? We got 52% on first preferences last time.