Australia General Discussion 2.0

[Lachi]

If the Greens run a good and competent national campaign, there are quite a few sleepers that could come into play at this point. Macnamara should fall, Labor screwed themselves in preselection, but seats like Ryan, Brisbane, Wills, Higgins, Richmond, etc. could at least come into play.

I agree with you on Wills and Higgins and maybe Brisbane, but Richmond lost Nimbin and gained Ballina in 2016, and even though the Greens are hitting 50% in Byron they can barely break 10% in Tweed Heads. And Ryan? We got 52% on first preferences last time.

The candidate in Ryan is a terrible fit for the area, and the mess that was the preselection can't help the LNP there.

Plus, the LNP are currently looking at a big hit on first preferences in QLD.
HOWEVER, Greens only have a chance there though IF they take it seriously, which it doesn't look like they will.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If the Greens run a good and competent national campaign, there are quite a few sleepers that could come into play at this point. Macnamara should fall, Labor screwed themselves in preselection, but seats like Ryan, Brisbane, Wills, Higgins, Richmond, etc. could at least come into play.

I agree with you on Wills and Higgins and maybe Brisbane, but Richmond lost Nimbin and gained Ballina in 2016, and even though the Greens are hitting 50% in Byron they can barely break 10% in Tweed Heads. And Ryan? We got 52% on first preferences last time.

The candidate in Ryan is a terrible fit for the area, and the mess that was the preselection can't help the LNP there.

Plus, the LNP are currently looking at a big hit on first preferences in QLD.
HOWEVER, Greens only have a chance there though IF they take it seriously, which it doesn't look like they will.

But Ryan isn't just Maiwar, it takes in a lot of monolithically Liberal territory. Even in 2007 Labor only got 47%. There is no chance of a Labor gain here, yet alone a Greens gain.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

After the train wreck at ICAC two weeks ago Liberal Member for Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire has finally resigned, triggering a by election.

[Lachi]

My initial rating for Wagga Wagga is Safe LIB. However, if the Nats jump in, who knows what might happen.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

My initial rating for Wagga Wagga is Safe LIB. However, if the Nats jump in, who knows what might happen.

No chance of the Nationals jumping in, the NSW Liberals and Nationals have the closest and strongest coalition, NSW is the only state where the coalition has never broken, ever. The two have strong agreements which allocate seats between each party, so there are no three-cornered contests. This harks back to the muddle the NSW coalition went through in the 90s.
In 1988 Unsworth increased the size of the house from 99 to 109, radically redrawing the seats in Southern NSW, and both parties insisted on contesting the new seats. Of the three cornered contests, Monaro was surprisingly won by the Nationals, and Burrinjuck by the Liberals.
In 1991, after Greiner brought the House back to 99 seats the parties went back to their longstanding agreement to not have any 3-cornered contests, which meant the Nationals contesting Monaro and the Liberals Burrinjuck, and Goulburn, the seat which was abolished, had its National member pushed up to the upper house. Goulburn was moved into Southern Highlands, a new seat created in 1988 and was allocated to the Liberals, which was represented by senior minister Fahey, who would become premier in 1992 after Greiner's ICAC hearing and subsequent resignation. After a narrow defeat in 1995 Fahey resigned, triggering a by-election. The Nationals insisted on contesting Southern Highlands as they had long held the seat of Goulburn. The Liberals barely beat the Nationals on Labor preferences, however on the same day was held the Clarence by-election, where Labor shockingly beat the National on a 14% swing, boosting Carr's majority from 1 to 3. The Liberals were furious as the Nationals had wasted great amounts of resources in Southern Highlands a safe coalition seat, while spending comparatively little in the seat of Clarence, a seat which Labor won.
The bitterness between the Liberals and the Nationals reached crescendo in the 1999 state election, where the addition of One Nation led to a record number of three cornered contests, and in addition a great many Coalition voters exhausted their preferences, pushing Labor ahead of the Coalition in numerous country seats, helping them greatly improve their majority on the back of a small swing.
1999 was a wake up call to the Coalition to the great risks three-cornered contests in OPV, and this lesson has led to their not being a single three-cornered contest since. While the Nationals huff and puff about seats like Wagga Wagga they won't stand a candidate unless the Liberals decide to hand them the seat, as they do not want to risk breaking the agreement about a single Coalition candidate, which could cost them a great many seats, never mind the Legislative Council. In addition with so very many Nationals retiring in 2019 and after the shock at Orange the Nationals can't put anything to chance.

[Lachi]

Any sliver of credibility that Sky News had has been lost as they interviewed A LITERAL NEO-NAZI LAST NIGHT. Blair Cottrell actually espouses things such as that all students should be made to read Mein Kampf, and that images and portraits of Adolf Hitler should be hung up in schools.

Oh yeah, and Sky News is going free to air in Australia as well, oh no...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Any sliver of credibility that Sky News had has been lost as they interviewed A LITERAL NEO-NAZI LAST NIGHT. Blair Cottrell actually espouses things such as that all students should be made to read Mein Kampf, and that images and portraits of Adolf Hitler should be hung up in schools.

Oh yeah, and Sky News is going free to air in Australia as well, oh no...

They're only going free to air in the regional TV districts, as the deal is with WIN.

[Lachi]

Any sliver of credibility that Sky News had has been lost as they interviewed A LITERAL NEO-NAZI LAST NIGHT. Blair Cottrell actually espouses things such as that all students should be made to read Mein Kampf, and that images and portraits of Adolf Hitler should be hung up in schools.

Oh yeah, and Sky News is going free to air in Australia as well, oh no...

They're only going free to air in the regional TV districts, as the deal is with WIN.

I'm in Regional VIC though... so RIP me

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Any sliver of credibility that Sky News had has been lost as they interviewed A LITERAL NEO-NAZI LAST NIGHT. Blair Cottrell actually espouses things such as that all students should be made to read Mein Kampf, and that images and portraits of Adolf Hitler should be hung up in schools.

Oh yeah, and Sky News is going free to air in Australia as well, oh no...

They're only going free to air in the regional TV districts, as the deal is with WIN.

I'm in Regional VIC though... so RIP me

Sky News is on Channel 83 for you then.
Also, Sky News itself is okay, a strong right-wing tilt but still good journalism, the problem is is that all their programs are hosted by bats**t crazy lunatics.

[Lachi]

https://www.portnews.com.au/story/5571421/luke-hartsuyker-to-quit-politics/

Considering it's now an open seat, and Oakeshott has said he will run a serious campaign this time around he has a very real chance of coming back into parliament. We will see though.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://www.portnews.com.au/story/5571421/luke-hartsuyker-to-quit-politics/

Considering it's now an open seat, and Oakeshott has said he will run a serious campaign this time around he has a very real chance of coming back into parliament. We will see though.

This is my grandparents seat. The seat is really weird at the moment, taking in both Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie. Port Macquarie is Oakeshott heartland, and when he isn't on the ballot Labor gets a decent vote. Bellingen is Greens heartland, while the city of Coffs Harbour is a National bastion, indeed every single booth in the town reliably votes over 60% National.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

BREAKING : Embattled Federal Labor MP Emma Husar has announced she will not recontest the western Sydney seat of Lindsay at the next election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The National Energy Guarantee is still somehow alive.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Well, I don't think the greens will win Batman/Cooper in the next election.

THEY ARE RUNNING THE BULLY ALEX BHATHAL IN THE SEAT FOR THE SEVENTH TIME!!! HAHAHAHA.

Alex Bhathal has reconsidered and has announced she won't recontest the seat of Cooper at the next election. Additionally during her statement she blamed her by-election loss on "internal sabotage".

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meanwhile MPs are having difficulties because someone found a rule that says that MPs, along with handing out free flags to anyone who asked they must also provide free portraits of our great Queen Elizabeth II

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Coalition Party Room has approved the National Energy Guarantee

[Mazda]

The Coalition Party Room has approved the National Energy Guarantee

Wait, they even have a combined party room?

Related: what happens to the party organisations in divisions held by the other Coalition partner? Do people generally join the dominant party or are there, like, National branches in central Melbourne full of the Uni-going children of farmers?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Coalition Party Room has approved the National Energy Guarantee

Wait, they even have a combined party room?

Related: what happens to the party organisations in divisions held by the other Coalition partner? Do people generally join the dominant party or are there, like, National branches in central Melbourne full of the Uni-going children of farmers?

No, the Liberals and the Nationals both have their own Party rooms, however on most issues both party rooms meet together in the combined Coalition party room, which consists of all Coalition members.



No, the Nationals exist only in the Country, and only run candidates in rural, provincial, and sometimes outer-urban electorates. Meanwhile where the Liberals exist is more mixed.

The NSW Coalition is by far the strongest, indeed it is the only Coalition which has never broken. Indeed, the 2 parties agreed in the 90s to divide the state up into Liberal areas and National areas, and neither party infringes on the others assigned territory. Because of this there hasn't been a three-cornered contest since 1999.

In Victoria the Nationals formed a government with Labor's support through the 30s and 40s, broken by a Liberal majority. The 40s mess was extremely complicated, but the end result was the Liberal party renaming itself the Liberal and Country Party, which, as you can imagine, kept the two parties firmly seperate as sworn enemies (mainly because of the Country party stabbing them in the back twice, in '35 and '50, both times breaking the Coalition and forming a minority government with Labor support). However they finally reached a Coalition agreement in 1990, and formed a Coalition government under Jeff Kennett in 1992. After the Coalition's defeat in 1999 the Nationals terminated the Coalition, and would fight separately in 2002 and 2006. A new agreement would be reached in 2008, the Coalition would win in 2010 under Baillieu, who was then replaced with Napthine, and lost in 2014, however miraculously the Coalition held.

In Queensland the 2 parties merged in 2008, to form the LNP, however the LNP is deeply divided between the Liberals and the Nationals. Federal MPs sit in either the National or Liberal party room, depending on where they represent.

The WA Coalition has always been the loosest. After briefly splitting in half in the 20s the Country party formed a Coalition with the UAP/Liberals, and this coalition would last until the 70s, indeed as the stringer party for a time the Country party would supply the opposition leader from 1933-1947. In 1974 the party would briefly merge with the Democratic Labor party to form the National Alliance, while staying within the Coalition. The Coalition would gain power in 1974, however due to the population trends the new cabinet was far more Liberal with only 3 National ministers, and the National's reduced position led to tensions. The breaking point would be the contentious issue of milk quotas which would lead to the Nationals walk out of the Coalition. However under immense federal after a month the Nationals begrudgingly rejoined the Coalition. After the 1977 election, where the Liberals gained seats while the Nationals stood still the Nationals were reduced to just 2 ministerial posts, causing great consternation, which would reach a crescendo in 1978, when the party split after mining giant Lang Hancock (Gina's dad) donated $200,000 to oust the leader, Dick Old. In 1980 the National Country Party (Coalition) and the National Party (Splitters) would each win 3 seats. In 1983 the Coalition lost power, which lead to the 2 parties to reunify in 1984 under a seventeen-point plan. The unified National party refused to rejoin the coalition or help bring down the Labor government in the upper house, knowing that only a small swing would give the Liberals an outright majority, weakening their negotiating position. In the 1993 election the Coalition was finally reformed, and that along with WA Inc easily returned the Coalition to power. The Coalition was defeated in 2001, however the Coalition barely managed to survive another 4 years until being shattered by Brendon Grylls on his election as leader in the aftermath of the 2005 election. The Nationals formed a much looser agreement with the Liberals after 2008, which was retained after 2013 even though the Liberals won a majority due to the malapportioned upper house. The party fought a separate campaign in 2017, and is currently not in a Coalition.

In SA the Country party merged with the Liberal Federation in 1924 to form the Liberal and Country League. However in 1964 the Country party reestablished a SA branch. They peaked in 1973 when they won 4% of the vote, one seat (Flinders) and came second in 5 more. They would hold Flinders until 1993. Then in 1997 they won Chaffey, and went okay until in 2006 they supported the Labor party. They were slaughtered in 2010.

In Tasmania the Country party never performed well, merging with the Nationalists in 1924, refounded in 1962, renamed Centre in 1969, which held the balance of power in the election that year, but quickly fell apart in the 70s. It briefly re-emerged in the 90s, before disappearing just as fast.

In the ACT the Nationals obviously don't exist.

In the NT the Country party was the dominant party, and in the run-up to self-governance they merged with the tiny Liberal party to form the Country Liberal party.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Also, only in Australia

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[GoTfan]

Did anyone see Fraser Anning's speech?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Did anyone see Fraser Anning's speech?

As a rule, you should never say Final Solution when talking about immigration.

[GoTfan]

Did anyone see Fraser Anning's speech?

As a rule, you should never say Final Solution when talking about immigration.

Or praise the White Australia policy.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Did anyone see Fraser Anning's speech?

As a rule, you should never say Final Solution when talking about immigration.

Or praise the White Australia policy.

Quite

[GoTfan]

Did anyone see Fraser Anning's speech?

As a rule, you should never say Final Solution when talking about immigration.

Or praise the White Australia policy.

Quite

I used to think Katter was alright, especially on economics. If he wants to tie himself to this lunatic . . .

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Did anyone see Fraser Anning's speech?

As a rule, you should never say Final Solution when talking about immigration.

Or praise the White Australia policy.

Quite

I used to think Katter was alright, especially on economics. If he wants to tie himself to this lunatic . . .

Katter is one weird man.
I've always found that with Katter and especially Jacqui Lambie that they're absolute lunatics but now and again they say something I completely agree with.