Australia General Discussion 2.0

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/12/nine-year-old-attacked-refusing-stand-australian-anthem-white/

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[MAINEiac4434]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/12/nine-year-old-attacked-refusing-stand-australian-anthem-white/

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Nine-year-old girl for PM

[Lachi]

Hanson advocating assault against a 9-year-old. Classy... not

[Meclazine for Israel]

Great cartoons.

I shouldn't laugh.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The best poll aggregator in Australia is the BludgerTrack, run by PollBludger.
https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/
Because of the large swing the polls have been showing, I have decided to compile a rudimentary swingometer/mackerras pendulum based on the BludgerTracker's individual seat predictions. I'll be updating the spreadsheet every fortnight or so up to the election, to keep track of the latest poll movements. I've updated the spreadsheet so it all runs of equations so I only need to paste the original table in to update. I've also added the projected 2PP and the projected swing.
Because I can't seem to upload documents I've have a screenshot of the marginal seats.

[Meclazine for Israel]

So if the Federal election were held tomorrow, who would win?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So if the Federal election were held tomorrow, who would win?

Labor by a country mile. The only question would be whether they could break 100 seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Ipsos (link to the smh article) has released an absolutely garbage poll (not unusually) for the Fairfax papers. The TPP is only 53-47 to Labor, and the primaries are far worse. The Liberals on a reasonable 34% but Labor all the way down to 31% (vs 42% last newspoll). The Greens meanwhile have somehow found their way to a 15% primary vote, despite not passing 10% in the Newspoll since August 2017.
Pollbludger sums it up best: "Ipsos’ primary vote numbers are still idiosyncratic, with an already over-inflated Greens gaining two points to 15%, while Labor slumps four to 31% and the Coalition gains one to 34%."

[GoTfan]

Ipsos (link to the smh article) has released an absolutely garbage poll (not unusually) for the Fairfax papers. The TPP is only 53-47 to Labor, and the primaries are far worse. The Liberals on a reasonable 34% but Labor all the way down to 31% (vs 42% last newspoll). The Greens meanwhile have somehow found their way to a 15% primary vote, despite not passing 10% in the Newspoll since August 2017.
Pollbludger sums it up best: "Ipsos’ primary vote numbers are still idiosyncratic, with an already over-inflated Greens gaining two points to 15%, while Labor slumps four to 31% and the Coalition gains one to 34%."

 . . . They have Labor behind on primaries?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

"ABC24 Accidentally Broadcast Live Images From Inside Liberal Party Room"

[Lachi]

The ipsos poll was 55-45 Labor, not 53-47. The 53-47 was from newspoll

[AustralianSwingVoter]

"ABC24 Accidentally Broadcast Live Images From Inside Liberal Party Room"

I think I'm going to get a lot of use out of this over the next year.
Also, the image is from the Betoota Advocate (Australia's version of The Onion) and the full article is hilarious.

[GoTfan]

What the hell happened in the Liberal Party yesterday?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meanwhile ScoMo's staffers have continued to astound everyone with their sheer level of competence. /s
They have forgotten to renew his website (www.scottmorrison.com.au) so someone has bought the domain and it now plays an lewd obscure rock song called "Scotty Doesn't Know". And in case you think they couldn't be that stupid, the ABC's story on it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-19/scott-morrison-website-taken-over-internet-prank/10395220

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Also, Mark Humphries new satirical segment on 7.30 is hilarious.
https://twitter.com/markhumphries/status/1052863856643469313

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And on a 22% swing we have lost the Wentworth by-election to Independent Kerryn Phelps, and with it our majority in the House of Representatives.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meanwhile, in other Australian political news, out in Woop Woop noted inbred tomato Barnaby Joyce is agitating for Michael McCormack to give him his old job back already. The question of whether to choose a man even more boring than Chris Bowen or a inbred Tomato imitating a Farmer with anger-management problems and a irrational hatred of Carp is one the Nationals will have to grapple with.

[morgieb]

Probably a lolMorgan situation but look at their numbers in Wentworth:

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6858-melbourne-batman-set-to-turn-green-at-federal-election-july-2016-201606171633

More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....

Are you saying you think the Libs are going to lose?

No. But it'll be close enough that the right-wing of the Libs will strike back and topple Turnbull this term even assuming they win.

LOL, this turned out to be a brilliant call.

[Lachi]

Probably a lolMorgan situation but look at their numbers in Wentworth:

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6858-melbourne-batman-set-to-turn-green-at-federal-election-july-2016-201606171633

More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....

Are you saying you think the Libs are going to lose?

No. But it'll be close enough that the right-wing of the Libs will strike back and topple Turnbull this term even assuming they win.

LOL, this turned out to be a brilliant call.

Took a while, but it happened haha

[Former President tack50]

And on a 22% swing we have lost the Wentworth by-election to Independent Kerryn Phelps, and with it our majority in the House of Representatives.

Does that mean a new election is imminent? Looking at Wikipedia there seems to be one National MP who is sitting with the opposition for some bizarre reason (I guess he could go back to the government bench). Alternatively I guess at least one of the independents can defend the government? Or Katter/Centre Alliance?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And on a 22% swing we have lost the Wentworth by-election to Independent Kerryn Phelps, and with it our majority in the House of Representatives.

Does that mean a new election is imminent? Looking at Wikipedia there seems to be one National MP who is sitting with the opposition for some bizarre reason (I guess he could go back to the government bench). Alternatively I guess at least one of the independents can defend the government? Or Katter/Centre Alliance?

We have a majority. The crossbencher National has confirmes that he'll support us on confidence and supplyKerry Phelps has said she'll support us on confidence and supply, Bob Katter has said he'll support us on confidence and supply, Cathy McGowan has said she'll support us on confidence and supply.

(The National MP is on the crossbench to protest the Turnbull knifing. He's still part of the government, he's a member of the Coalition party room, he just happens to sit on the crossbench.)

[GoTfan]

And on a 22% swing we have lost the Wentworth by-election to Independent Kerryn Phelps, and with it our majority in the House of Representatives.

Does that mean a new election is imminent? Looking at Wikipedia there seems to be one National MP who is sitting with the opposition for some bizarre reason (I guess he could go back to the government bench). Alternatively I guess at least one of the independents can defend the government? Or Katter/Centre Alliance?

The only way an election happens is if the government loses a no confidence motion and fails to form a government in the time given. For them to lose a no-confidence motion, that would require all the crossbenchers to vote with Labor. That's not going to happen. There is a world of difference between a Katter and a McGowan and people like Bandt and Wilkie.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Today's Pope is fantastic. Particularly puppetted Pyne.

[Lachi]

The federal National Party's treasurer and candidate for the Shepparton district in November's state election, Peter Schwartz, has been implicated in a corruption scandal involving the use of $850,000 given to the party for use in water saving type issues.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/no-work-done-after-nationals-treasurer-got-850k-water-saving-grant-20181025-p50bve.html

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/federal-politics/mark-latham-to-join-pauline-hansons-one-nation-party-ng-b881014130z

Mark Latham, former leader of the Labor Party to join One Nation.

That is the political equivalent of Hillary Clinton teaming up with Alex Jones.