Australia General Discussion 2.0

[MaxQue]

John Alexander has resigned, causing a by-election in the key seat of Bennelong...

lol, with the cross bench not supporting him, this is a dangerous time for the government. Sure, Bennelong and New England will almost certainly stay in the coalition's hands, but by-elections throw up some extremely weird results sometimes, and there is always the chance another MP falls.

It's the former John Howard seat?

[Lachi]

John Alexander has resigned, causing a by-election in the key seat of Bennelong...

lol, with the cross bench not supporting him, this is a dangerous time for the government. Sure, Bennelong and New England will almost certainly stay in the coalition's hands, but by-elections throw up some extremely weird results sometimes, and there is always the chance another MP falls.

It's the former John Howard seat?

Yes, yes it is.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

John Alexander has resigned, causing a by-election in the key seat of Bennelong...

lol, with the cross bench not supporting him, this is a dangerous time for the government. Sure, Bennelong and New England will almost certainly stay in the coalition's hands, but by-elections throw up some extremely weird results sometimes, and there is always the chance another MP falls.

It's the former John Howard seat?

Yes, yes it is.

Which the Liberals cannot take for granted - Labor won it in '07, and it's transitioned from safe Liberal to swingy territory (when Howard first won it in 1974, it covered a lot of territory now in North Sydney, which is still blue-blooded Liberal areas, demographic change in the areas now in Bennelong, like Ryde, has contributed as well).

[Knives]

Newspoll 55/45

Insane. LNP primary is 34%, it was 39% in 2007 when they lost 22 seats. But this is a historic low.

[Lachi]

Newspoll details:

[Lachi]

BREAKING: Lambie has resigned from the Senate, as the UK home office has confirmed that she is a UK citizen.

[GoTfan]

The plebiscite is over. The people have voted yes with an overwhelming 60%. Less than 40% voted no.

[Antarctic]

The plebiscite is over. The people have voted yes with an overwhelming 60%. Less than 40% voted no.

Why was NSW the lowest yes percentage...I would've expected it to be Queensland?

https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/results/

[Lachi]

The Greens have GAINED the Victorian state assembly seat of Northcote from Labor. Swing is currently...

14.3 PERCENT!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2017/11/18/northcote-election-live/#comments

Greens are getting 47.9% in just first preferences...

Why do inner city intellectuals hate us rural folk...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The plebiscite is over. The people have voted yes with an overwhelming 60%. Less than 40% voted no.

Why was NSW the lowest yes percentage...I would've expected it to be Queensland?

https://marriagesurvey.abs.gov.au/results/

Largely because of Western and parts of Southern Sydney - a coalition of conservative Muslims and Christians (particularly Catholics and megachurch types), amongst others, countered the overwhelming Yes from northern/eastern Sydney, and the lesser Yes from areas like the Sutherland Shire (going from the electorates that voted No and their demographics).

Conversely, only three outback Queensland seats voted No, so most of Australia's "redneck" areas voted Yes. Two suburban Melbourne seats also voted No, both in poorer areas of Melbourne.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Polls have closed in the New England by-election, Barnaby will almost certainly win again, though probably will win on preferences (FPV below 50%). The AEC is doing a preference count between Barnaby and Labor, however there is a good chance that they'll have to abandon it, what with 17!!! candidates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

First 3 tiny rural booths in, Barny is getting 76.7% FPV, up on last time. 264 votes total.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

From Antony's commentary.
"18:21 - My contacts reckon that Independent Rob Taber is more likely to finish second rather than Labor. Time will tell, but if the Nationals poll more than 50% of the first preference vote, the wrong choice of notional preference count will not matter."

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Two results pages:
ABC - http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/new-england-by-election-2017/results/
AEC (official results) - http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-21364-135.htm

[AustralianSwingVoter]

With 15 booths in Barny's up almost 13%, so it looks like he's going to romp in.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Probably would have been far closer if the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers were running, they've been going extremely well in NSW state by-elections this parliament, including gaining a seat from the Nats!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just noticed this, in Niangala Barny's up 9.8 to 98.3%, with 100.00% TPP!!!!!
What a shining example of free, multi-party elections!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

From Antony on twitter: #newenglandvotes - only one booth so far where National vote has fallen, and that was Nowendoc down from 94% to 88%.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Currently informal votes are 3rd

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This is mad, a 10.7 percent swing TO the government!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And Antony Green has called it:
"The Nationals have won the New England by-election, Barnaby Joyce re-elected with a swing in his favour."

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This is the first bit of genuinely, no strings attached, good news for the Coalition. Turnbull is not going to shut up about this for a loooooong time.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Barnaby's vote is down in only 4/40 booths on first preferences

[AustralianSwingVoter]

51/103 booths but only around 13% counted, due to the disparity in size between the rural and urban (Armidale/Tamworth) booths.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I have got no idea whatsoever on what this means will happen in Bennelong in a fortnight. No idea whatsoever.