Australia General Discussion 2.0

[Lachi]

There's been serious hijinks surrounding Bob Day, a Family First senator until yesterday. It's quite complicated and it involves his housing company, party finance and the possibility he was never legitimately elected in the first place.

My main takeaway: a minor party crossbencher turns out to be crooked? What a shocker!

(Oh yeah we missed a whole lot of Abbott/Turnbull feuding a week or so ago about guns, and the (crooked) crossbencher David Leyonhjelm. Nobody came across very well, least of all Abbott who appears to believe he can swoop back in KRudd style, apparently forgetting that the public quite liked KRudd, even if his party didn't. At the moment neither the parliamentarians nor the public particularly approve of Abbott, so God knows what his game is.

Abbott or not, the L/NP is heading for a crushing defeat in 2019.

[Lachi]

BREAKING NEWS: MIKE BAIRD, L/NP PREMIER OF NEW SOUTH WALES RETIRES NEXT WEEK

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikebairdMP/status/821840888988975104?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[Lachi]

3 DEAD, AT LEAST 25 INJURED AFTER MAN DRIVES THROUGH BOURKE STREET MALL IN MELBOURNE THIS AFTERNOON, RIGHT BLAMES ISLAM, THEY ARE WRONG

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/bourke-street-mall-incident-what-we-know-so-far-20170120-gtvg2x.html

The right wing has come out of the woodwork again about the event on Swanston and Bourke streets this afternoon. Even though the man who did this was an Australian of Greek descent, the right keeps spreading this bullsh**t about him being Muslim, was from the Middle East, saying 'Allahu Akbar" etc. How we allow these people to keep spreading their hate and bigotry in 2017 is just disgusting.

My thoughts go out to all of the families affected by this incident, and hope that those who have been injured make a quick recovery.

[Lachi]

The Coalition is polling at its lowest level since the times of Abbott's removal form the Prime Ministership, with Labor now leading in both the Primary Vote, and the TPP vote. The worrying thing about this poll is the rise of One Nation, who is polling just under the Greens (10 GRN, 9 ON)

FULL POLL: http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Essential-Report_170124.pdf

[Lachi]

Cory Bernardi is leaving the Liberal Party.

To sit as an independent, to join One Nation, or to start his own political movement?

He'll be creating the Conservative party, or, at least, that's what I have been reading.

EDIT: from what I am seeing, the new party will be called the Australian Conservative Party. This is the logo for that party on Bernadi's site

[Lachi]

The good news is that if the Coalition keeps trailing Labor, then Turnbull will *have* to be replaced - that is the very metric he set when deposing Abbott.  The bad news is that anyone who would replace him (Abbott in particular) would only continue to embarrass Australia on the global stage while running the economy into the ground and pretending that the future is coal.  Slim pickings among the Coalition, after all.

Not that I mind, particularly - watching Turnbull over the last week (especially, but not limited to, his disastrous interview with Stan Grant), it's better from my perspective for the government to be inept rather than effective, so Turnbull is welcome, by all means, to continue leading the Coalition until they get the defeat they so badly deserve.

Worse for them, who ever won this year had the displeasure of knowing that they WILL lose in a landslide in the next election, regardless of the party who won, because that is just what happens in our government.

[Lachi]

Cory Bernardi is leaving the Liberal Party.

To sit as an independent, to join One Nation, or to start his own political movement?

He'll be creating the Conservative party, or, at least, that's what I have been reading.

EDIT: from what I am seeing, the new party will be called the Australian Conservative Party. This is the logo for that party on Bernadi's site

Any odds of that working?

I don't think, and hope it doesn't work, because if it did, it would pose an even bigger threat than One Nation does.

[Lachi]

Bernardi will go well.

Pauline Hanson is someone who has been tainted with her views on immigrants and religion.

She will get 10-15% of the votes in the upcoming WA state election.

With Donald Trump being elected in the USA, there is a desire in Australia to introduce a Pauline style candidate but with a little more intelligence.

Pauline is a few Mb short of a Gb to pit it nicely.

But even so, very popular now.

It really comes down to what he is proposing.

Let's see his policies. We do have issues with home grown terrorism. We do have issues with massive welfare dependence by refugees. We do have issues with employment where manufacturing has gone to China and Japan.

Australia will go broke as a welfar state unless we turn it around.

If he sells that line, he will get votes.

One Nation will get 5-8 percent at most in WA. Queensland would be a very different story however, IF they had their election this year, ON I would think they would be getting 5-10 seats, with around 15-18 percent.

[Lachi]

Follow live:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-07/politics-live-february-7/8244290

Ahh, it's fun watching the right wing fall to pieces

[Lachi]

New Senate layout, as of Feb. 8



GOVERNMENT: 29
LIB: 20 (-1)
QLD LNP: 5
NAT: 3
CLP: 1

OPPOSITION
ALP: 26

CROSSBENCH: 19
GRN: 9
NXT: 3
ON: 3
LDP: 1
Lambie: 1
Hinch: 1
Aus. Conservatives: 1 (new party)
2 VACANT

[Lachi]

They still haven't filled Day's seat?

No.

[Lachi]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-12/fallout-over-liberal-one-nation-preference-deal-in-wa/8263756

Haha. Liberal volunteers will be asked to hand out One Nation voter cards at the upcoming WA state election after the Liberals reached a deal with One Nation.

This election is all over now.



He has been there for 8 years, and we might get 12.

I don't mind Colin Barnett, but I think he has missed the financial gains that the mining boom should have delivered to the state coffers.

There are so many mining, oil and gas development projects that could have been setup better for the interests of the state rather than the corporate world.

Rio Tinto and BHP are crying poor at the threat of a new mining tax when they are the two largest mining companies in the world. 

Watch, this deal will backfire in a spectacular fashion.

[Lachi]

If the federal election was held today, the L/NP would be swept out of office in the biggest labor landslide in electoral history.

2PP
LAB: 55% (+1)
L/NP: 45 (-1)

PRIMARY VOTE: LAB +3
LAB: 37% (+1)
L/NP: 34% (-1)
GRN: 10% (+1)
ON: 10% (+2)
OTH: 9 (-2, most of this other vote would be NXT)

SEAT PROJECTIONS (courtesy of The Australian)
LAB: 89 (+20)
L/NP: 56 (-20)
OTH: 5 (0) (1 GRN, 1 NXT, 1 KAP, 2 IND)

This will no doubt cause a leadership spill within the L/NP. Gonna be a very exciting few weeks in Australian politics.

[Lachi]

wow

may i ask what are the main reasons for this change?

Mainly a lot of instability within the L/NP, the rise of One Nation, and e multiple gaffes committed by senior party figures.

[Lachi]

So... Who wants to bet on who'll be rolling Turnbull out the door?

Also, projected gains for Labor if the 4.5% swing was uniform:
WA: +3: Pearce, Hasluck, Swan
SA: +1:  Boothby
QLD: +8: Leichhardt, Dickson, Petrie, Bonner, Forde, Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn
VIC: +4: Chisholm, Corangamite, Dunkley, La Trobe
NSW: +4: Banks, Gilmore, Page, Robertson

[Lachi]

So... Who wants to bet on who'll be rolling Turnbull out the door?

Also, projected gains for Labor if the 4.5% swing was uniform:
WA: +3: Pearce, Hasluck, Swan
SA: +1:  Boothby
QLD: +8: Leichhardt, Dickson, Petrie, Bonner, Forde, Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn
VIC: +4: Chisholm, Corangamite, Dunkley, La Trobe
NSW: +4: Banks, Gilmore, Page, Robertson

As I said, Shorten must be thinking every day is Christmas at this point.

Yep, especially if Turnbull gets rolled. If the Liberal Party installed someone like Abbott, or Dutton, I won't be surprised if Labor's 2PP goes near 60

[Lachi]

Bill Shorten, Labor leader, marching in the Sydney Mardi Gras.
https://www.facebook.com/BillShorten/videos/vb.464998863536680/1248364468533445/?type=2&theater&notif_t=live_video&notif_id=1488623349984641

[Lachi]

Newly popularised right wing red headed politician admires Vladimir Putin before upcoming election.

Wait.....hang on a sec....

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-05/australia-wants-a-leader-like-putin,-hanson-says/8326254

She is telling a massive lie if she think Australians are even remotely accepting of him and how he runs.

[Lachi]

Pauline must think that copying Donald Trump word for word and saying controversial things will help get her exposure.

But we dont have any illegal immigrants anymore. Muslim immigration leading to terrorist activities os virtually nob- existent.

So her only controversial position is she has a thing for Vladimir Putin.

Nonetheless it's working. Pauline is is sitting about 11% in the polls. Given the hidden orange haired loving silent voter effect, that number will probably end up around 18%.

She might win Kalgoorlie and a couple of regional seats.

You don't think her vaccination bs is contraversial?

[Lachi]

The liberals are down to just 2 premierships after the liberal party is removed from office in a landslide.

One nation has also performed really poorly, only pulling 4.5% as of 8:01 AWST

follow the election live: http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/

The results show that One Nation peaked ages ago, and shouldn't be a problem in most states, except in Queensland

[Lachi]

The federal liberal party has killed themselves after saying that they will NOT rule out another preference deal with One Nation

[Lachi]

The federal liberal party has killed themselves after saying that they will NOT rule out another preference deal with One Nation

Isn't it fun watching the Australian right implode?

The just got smashed in WA. I mean, it was a complete blowout. And this was likely what doomed them; it made it easy for WA Labor to paint them as going too far to the right.

Either way, I predict a massive Labor swing in 2019.

Honestly, they didn't even need one nation as an excuse to paint them as toof ar right, Barnett was there to begin with

[Lachi]

The Liberals are seriously inept if they are actually sticking with Fizza Turnbull after the last couple of months.

Has Turnbull actually accomplished anything other than presiding over an increase in homelessness and a decrease in take-home pay?  Pathetic.

Well who takes over? Dutton? His seat is slightly marginal. Bishop? The right wing won't support a moderare woman. Abbott? He'll get crushed in 2019.

No matter who is leader, they'll get crushed, becuase the Liberal bench is extremely weak.

[Lachi]

How was talking to Shorten like?

[Lachi]

Pauline Hanson has been slammed over saying that we should #pray4muslimban, and rightly so, considering it wouldn't really do jacksh**t a lot of the time.