Australia General Discussion 2.0

[GoTfan]

I tend to think they won't get too far. The most vulnerable part of the LNP is probably the bush area; and I don't see them going for a true-blue party when more populist and protectionist outfits are available (whether they be One Nation, rural independents (like Xenephon) or the single-issue parties).

I'm inclined to agree. Most conservatives will likely avoid Bernardi; he doesn't really have a good reputation in SA political circles, to put it lightly. Apparently, not even many state Liberals can stand him.

[GoTfan]

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Quoted for posterity. In regional WA, she will go nuts.

It's amazing in the context that she only chose candidates three weeks ago, and then the election is a month away.

Some of the candidates were of questionable character.

Bernardi will be watching closely. He thinks he can pull off a Trumpy but our politcal system will shut him out.

Bernardi's an idiot anyway. He says upfront that climate change is a hoax, that accepting gay marriage will lead to bestiality, and that he will resist any attempts at installing renewable energy sources.

He could just go to the US where his overlord lives.

[GoTfan]

Follow live:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-07/politics-live-february-7/8244290

Ahh, it's fun watching the right wing fall to pieces

His leaving makes me more likely to vote Liberal. Not less.

[GoTfan]

Follow live:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-07/politics-live-february-7/8244290

Ahh, it's fun watching the right wing fall to pieces

Haha

Odds on another spill?

Not gonna happen. At least for a while. They'll wait for the Bernardi thing to blow over before trying anything. If there is going to be a spill, it won't happen anytime soon. The conservatives-mainly Abbott and Dutton-have been calling out Bernardi over his decision to leave, calling him an cowardly opportunist.

I've got better odds on Bernardi crawling back to the Liberals before he's put on the line in 2022/

[GoTfan]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-12/fallout-over-liberal-one-nation-preference-deal-in-wa/8263756

Haha. Liberal volunteers will be asked to hand out One Nation voter cards at the upcoming WA state election after the Liberals reached a deal with One Nation.

This election is all over now.



He has been there for 8 years, and we might get 12.

I don't mind Colin Barnett, but I think he has missed the financial gains that the mining boom should have delivered to the state coffers.

There are so many mining, oil and gas development projects that could have been setup better for the interests of the state rather than the corporate world.

Rio Tinto and BHP are crying poor at the threat of a new mining tax when they are the two largest mining companies in the world. 

Watch, this deal will backfire in a spectacular fashion.

Yup. Hell, Hanson and her cronies make Turnbull and his look downright sensible.

[GoTfan]

So apparently Abbott's angling for a return to the top job.

[GoTfan]

He's genuinely delusional. I mean, Rudd managed to get back in because even if his colleagues hated his guts, the public were broadly sympathetic to him still (relative to Gillard anyway). Who - Liberal MP's and Australians alike - has any nostalgia for the Abbott era? Not to mention even his idealogical wing seems to have lost their patience. At best, he'd be an inadvertent staking horse, by striking Turnbull a blow that will be taken advantage of by a less toxic figure like Morrison, or , if the Libs are especially stupid, Dutton.

That's the thing. Even most of the Coalition's right wing agreed he had to go.

The one guy who didn't has thrown a temper tantrum and jumped over to the crossbench, because he wants to make himself less relevant.

Either way, Shorten must be thinking every day is Christmas at this point. All he has to do is point out one or two things each day watch the Liberals collapse in on themselves.

Ready for the 2019 Labor landslide?

[GoTfan]

I haven't seen this much public concern about industrial relations in ages, the FWC ruling is going to be a major headache for the libs.

Meanwhile Shorten and Plibersek are laughing their butts off.

[GoTfan]

So... Who wants to bet on who'll be rolling Turnbull out the door?

Also, projected gains for Labor if the 4.5% swing was uniform:
WA: +3: Pearce, Hasluck, Swan
SA: +1:  Boothby
QLD: +8: Leichhardt, Dickson, Petrie, Bonner, Forde, Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn
VIC: +4: Chisholm, Corangamite, Dunkley, La Trobe
NSW: +4: Banks, Gilmore, Page, Robertson

As I said, Shorten must be thinking every day is Christmas at this point.

[GoTfan]

I hope Dutton does take the role, seeing that his seat is marginal.

Oh it'd be fun to see a hypothetical PM Dutton lose his seat to some local no-name.

[GoTfan]

Oh look; the resurgent One Nation is beginning to fall to bits already.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-03/one-nation-candidate-quits-kalamunda-candidacy/8323792

[GoTfan]

Hanson is an idiot.

[GoTfan]

Has she explained why being swamped with Asians is no longer a problem?

Oh she stll believes that. She just lumps in Muslims with them, so now you get double the bigotry.

[GoTfan]

The federal liberal party has killed themselves after saying that they will NOT rule out another preference deal with One Nation

Isn't it fun watching the Australian right implode?

The just got smashed in WA. I mean, it was a complete blowout. And this was likely what doomed them; it made it easy for WA Labor to paint them as going too far to the right.

Either way, I predict a massive Labor swing in 2019.

[GoTfan]

The Liberals are seriously inept if they are actually sticking with Fizza Turnbull after the last couple of months.

Has Turnbull actually accomplished anything other than presiding over an increase in homelessness and a decrease in take-home pay?  Pathetic.

Well who takes over? Dutton? His seat is slightly marginal. Bishop? The right wing won't support a moderare woman. Abbott? He'll get crushed in 2019.

[GoTfan]

The Liberals are seriously inept if they are actually sticking with Fizza Turnbull after the last couple of months.

Has Turnbull actually accomplished anything other than presiding over an increase in homelessness and a decrease in take-home pay?  Pathetic.

Well who takes over? Dutton? His seat is slightly marginal. Bishop? The right wing won't support a moderare woman. Abbott? He'll get crushed in 2019.

It hardly matters, the Liberals have no record to run on, so I guess you are right that they would be better off with Turnbull.

PM Dutton would probably be the final nail in the coffin in Australia's international reputation.

Bishop is extraordinarily corrupt, even by the standards of the Turnbull government.  If she ever really wanted to be leader of the Liberals, she should have probably been more careful not to so blatantly accept gifts and bribes from donors.

As Lok sais above, the Liberals have no one ready to take over. Labor has a decent bench. Plibersek, Albanese, Chris Bowen, Tony Burke and so on.

The point is, if Shorten suddenly implodes (which I honestly can't see happening), then there's a cadre of skilled leaders ready to take over, so old Bill can rest easy. Turnbull can't do the same.

[GoTfan]

Pauline Hanson has been slammed over saying that we should #pray4muslimban, and rightly so, considering it wouldn't really do jacksh**t a lot of the time.

Pauline Hanson shilling for Abbott-Turnbull cuts to struggling families is the ultimate confirmation of her pyramid scheme party being a stalking horse for failed Liberal policies.

She's actually said some good things about trade and oir farmland being sold off . . . but she's sold out now.

Same for Xenophon the Xenocon. Populist? He's proved that he's not. He used to be a good fighter for us in SA, but now he's sold out big-time.

Meanwhile, my respect for Shorten, Di Natale and Lambie grows.

[GoTfan]

A new Fairfax-Ipsos poll has found at 8/10 Australians polled disapprove the proposed changes to section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act

Link (profanity warning): www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fairfaxipsos-poll-eight-in-10-voters-oppose-turnbull-governments-18c-race-hate-law-changes-20170327-gv7dlq.html

Duh. Turnbull has let me down. I thought he'd be different from the radical right of Abbott.

[GoTfan]

Australia's Top New Story for April.



Ben McCormack, the Current Affair reporter who chases paedophiles and suspected criminals around with a camera asking them juicy questions live on TV is himself arrested for child porn offences.

Did not see that coming.

It takes a pedo to catch other pedos.

I've never had respect for either A Current Affair or Today Tonight. They're both pathetic excuses for journalism.

[GoTfan]

The apex gang has now been declared a non-entity by Victoria police, with essentially the entire leadership now behind bars

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-12/victoria-police-declare-apex-crime-gang-non-entity/8440312

Vic. Police has also come out saying that the gang was never overly african in composition, in contradiction to what the (mostly Murdoch owned) Australian media has been showing (Thank god for the ABC, and The Age existing in today's society...).

I've been saying for years that the ABC is the only real new outlet that reports facts, rather than the stupid neutrality bias that other stations are obsessed with. The ABC doesn't care who they piss off-they do their job, and do it damned well.

The only reason the right wants to cut funding is because the ABC has reported some very inconvenient facts for them.

[GoTfan]

Terrible news: Palmer United disbands.

Oh how utterly terrible.

[GoTfan]

Terrible news: Palmer United disbands.

God, the end of an era...

In other news, Labor is going to formally challenge the new Family First's senator's eligibility to sit in Parliament because of purported concerns over dual citizenship.

Gichuhi, right? Since she's the last person on the South Australian FFP list, if she is kicked out of the Senate (what a fail for Family First, having an entire list of people ineligible to serve), there would be a recount of those votes with probably Labor but possibly One Nation picking up a seat, correct?

EDIT: Although this seems unlikely to happen since under what was then Kenyan law, she lost her Kenyan citizenship in 1989. Means Gichuhi doesn't hold any citizenship other than Australian and hasn't in 28 years. Also, if Gichuhi is seated, she becomes the first African-Australian to serve in Parliament, which is an interesting milestone.

It's uncertain what happens; that's never really happened before. No idea if there's a recount or by-election or anything else.

[GoTfan]

Turnbull's dog whistling is successfully appealing to the PHON racist crowd, I see.

Maybe it's enough to save his job after all - at least until the election.

Unless Abbott decides to try and make a comeback.

I mean for crying out loud, Turnbull obviously knows that pandering to the right is a surefire way to lose in 2019, yet he keeps doing it to head off more defections to Bernardi the Nutty.

In a way, I feel sorry for Turnbull. He obviously is aware that moderate policies are the way to go, yet if he pursues them, more people are going to leave for Bernardi or Hanson.

[GoTfan]

Cory Bernardi's one-man-band, Australian Conservatives, is set to merge with Family First. Well that lasted long.

EDIT: The initial headline was misleading, Family First will be absorbed by AC at the state and federal level. However, Lucy Gichuhi will apparently still stay in a rump Family First. How silly.

Family First is a joke anyway. Bernardi's new party seems to be very SA-focused. Mark my words, in six years, the Conservatives are going to dissolve when Bernardi runs back to the Liberals.

[GoTfan]

Cory Bernardi's one-man-band, Australian Conservatives, is set to merge with Family First. Well that lasted long.

EDIT: The initial headline was misleading, Family First will be absorbed by AC at the state and federal level. However, Lucy Gichuhi will apparently still stay in a rump Family First. How silly.

Family First is a joke anyway. Bernardi's new party seems to be very SA-focused. Mark my words, in six years, the Conservatives are going to dissolve when Bernardi runs back to the Liberals.

I never thought, and still don't honestly, he'd last outside of the Libs before 2022. The amusing thing is that he only has name recognition in SA and Xenophon with his merry band of unknowns have really stollen the air from the "anti-establishment, keep the bastards honest" niche.

Precisely. Xenophon is on the path to becoming the populist champion he thinks of himself as. He's considered the populist outsider here. He's already more relevant than the Australian Democrats,  and is pretty well liked in here in SA. The only reason Bernardi was elected is those who don't take their vote seriously vote for the Senator at the top of the ticket, and Bernardi was always at the top of the Liberal ticket here.

Mark my words, he'll be a Liberal again before he's up for re-election, and then he'll lose his seat because the Liberals don't exactly play nice with defectors.