Australia General Discussion 2.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Polls have closed in the New England by-election, Barnaby will almost certainly win again, though probably will win on preferences (FPV below 50%). The AEC is doing a preference count between Barnaby and Labor, however there is a good chance that they'll have to abandon it, what with 17!!! candidates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

First 3 tiny rural booths in, Barny is getting 76.7% FPV, up on last time. 264 votes total.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

From Antony's commentary.
"18:21 - My contacts reckon that Independent Rob Taber is more likely to finish second rather than Labor. Time will tell, but if the Nationals poll more than 50% of the first preference vote, the wrong choice of notional preference count will not matter."

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Two results pages:
ABC - http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/new-england-by-election-2017/results/
AEC (official results) - http://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-21364-135.htm

[AustralianSwingVoter]

With 15 booths in Barny's up almost 13%, so it looks like he's going to romp in.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Probably would have been far closer if the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers were running, they've been going extremely well in NSW state by-elections this parliament, including gaining a seat from the Nats!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just noticed this, in Niangala Barny's up 9.8 to 98.3%, with 100.00% TPP!!!!!
What a shining example of free, multi-party elections!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

From Antony on twitter: #newenglandvotes - only one booth so far where National vote has fallen, and that was Nowendoc down from 94% to 88%.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Currently informal votes are 3rd

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This is mad, a 10.7 percent swing TO the government!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And Antony Green has called it:
"The Nationals have won the New England by-election, Barnaby Joyce re-elected with a swing in his favour."

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This is the first bit of genuinely, no strings attached, good news for the Coalition. Turnbull is not going to shut up about this for a loooooong time.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Barnaby's vote is down in only 4/40 booths on first preferences

[AustralianSwingVoter]

51/103 booths but only around 13% counted, due to the disparity in size between the rural and urban (Armidale/Tamworth) booths.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I have got no idea whatsoever on what this means will happen in Bennelong in a fortnight. No idea whatsoever.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think this might be a record swing to a government in a by-election, as well as being pretty high up on the list of largest 2PP swings in a by-election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

18.4% Reporting

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I'm having to keep reminding myself of the swing here, given that in this NSW parliament we've had 3 by elections in seats held by the Nats, in those seats the Nats have had swings against them of:
21.8% in Orange
19.3% in Marray
Only (!!!) 10.0% in Cootamundra, however it would of been much larger if the SFF had been second instead of Labour the swing would have been far greater

[AustralianSwingVoter]

67/103 booths and 26.24% reporting

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We're now starting to get in the big Town booths from places like Armidale, Glen Innes, Guyra, Inverell and Tenterfield, though still nothing in from Tamworth, which was Tony Windsor's base

[AustralianSwingVoter]

2 Tamworth and 2 Armidale booths in, swing of around 6%, so Barny's swing will decline however there is no chance of a revival for any other candidate

[AustralianSwingVoter]

78/103, 37% reporting. We're getting more of the big booths in.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The AEC should be happy, 13 candidates failing to reach 4% so 13 lost deposits of $1000, or in total $13,000 dollars, or about $9900 US at the current exchange rate.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

with 81/103 booths in Barny's first preference vote is down in only 6.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

All 4 of Tamworth's central booths reporting, showing swings of between 10% and 17% to Barny