CNN/ORC: Clinton loses edge, Biden stronger

[HillOfANight]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/10/politics/hillary-clinton-poll-women/index.html
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/10/demsclinton.pdf

51% Carson to 46% Clinton
49% Bush to 47% Clinton
48% Trump to 48% Clinton

They say Clinton gets 39% of the white vote, while Bush gets 58%, while Clinton gets 66% of the non-white vote, and Bush gets 29%, which implies a 70% white electorate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/05/26/the-hard-demographic-truth-facing-republicans-in-2016-in-2-charts/

Romney got 17% of the nonwhite vote, Bush got 26% in 2004 which wouldn't be enough now, but if Jeb can keep it at 29%, he can win.

[Skye]

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/10/politics/hillary-clinton-poll-women/index.html

Carson 51
Clinton 46

Bush 49
Clinton 47

Trump 48
Clinton 48

Biden 52
Bush 44

Biden 54
Trump 44

Carson 50
Biden 47


http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/10/demsclinton.pdf

[HillOfANight]

Also noticed, Carson got 39% of the non-white vote. Not sure how that would hold up when people hear he compared Obamacare to slavery, or when Trump takes him to town for his fetal tissue research or abortion referrals.

[Mehmentum]

This poll also has Biden crushing Jeb by a 10 point margin.  The difference?  Biden only trails by 2 with whites. 

Biden also leads Trump by 16 points, and trails Carson by 3.

[Comrade Funk]

Wow. Things keep getting worse for her. From inevitable to tied with Trump....impressive for Biden though.

[Skill and Chance]

This poll also has Biden crushing Jeb by a 10 point margin.  The difference?  Biden only trails by 2 with whites. 

Biden also leads Trump by 16 points, and trails Carson by 3.

Wow, and that's what many were saying would be Hillary's strength.  What would the map look like with the Democrat only barely losing white voters by 2-4% and only getting 70%ish with minority voters? 

Something like this?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Pretty amazing that Biden is running 10 points better than Mrs. Inevitable against Trump and Bush. Weird that it's only a 2 point difference against Carson, but who really thinks that Carson will be the nominee?

[EliteLX]

Repeat after me: Hillary Clinton is a lying disingenuous broad who is nothing but a political celebrity due to a cheating spouse who actually has done something. She is not a leader or ready to be commander in chief in the slightest bit whatsoever.

The more people hear/see her, the more she'll drop.

[HillOfANight]

Her email saga has been an albatross on her campaign. As a Hillary supporter, I do cringer when I hear her IT staffer wants to plead the 5th. With her finally saying sorry, and without the media repeatedly asking her if she's sorry, or sorry for the confusion, I think this is her lowpoint.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/10/justice-department-rules-hillary-clinton-followed-/
Also, doesn't look like the Department of Justice really cares to pursue this, so it's likely going to wind down soon.

[Mehmentum]

This poll also has Biden crushing Jeb by a 10 point margin.  The difference?  Biden only trails by 2 with whites.  

Biden also leads Trump by 16 points, and trails Carson by 3.

Wow, and that's what many were saying would be Hillary's strength.  What would the map look like with the Democrat only barely losing white voters by 2-4% and only getting 70%ish with minority voters?  

Something like this?

RCP has a nifty calculator for just such a scenario.  Its not good for the GOP.

I set African American turnout and voting to 2004 levels.  I put whites at 52-48 in favor of the Republicans and Latinos at 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.

The result is a mirror image of 2008.  Nebraska's 2nd district probably flips too, but the map doesn't show it.

Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, the Dakotas, and Montana are all very close.  Bush's home state advantage probably tips Florida into his column.

[Skill and Chance]

This poll also has Biden crushing Jeb by a 10 point margin.  The difference?  Biden only trails by 2 with whites. 

Biden also leads Trump by 16 points, and trails Carson by 3.

Wow, and that's what many were saying would be Hillary's strength.  What would the map look like with the Democrat only barely losing white voters by 2-4% and only getting 70%ish with minority voters? 

Something like this?

RCP has a nifty calculator for just such a scenario.  Its not good for the GOP.

I set African American turnout and voting to 2004 levels.  I put whites at 52-48 in favor of the Republicans and Latinos at 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.

The result is a mirror image of 2008 (Nebraska's 2nd district probably flips too, but the map doesn't show it.

Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, the Dakotas, and Montana are all very close.  Bush's home state advantage probably tips Florida into his column.

Interesting.  I wasn't sure whether to assume the GOP overperformance would come from splitting Latinos about evenly and staying at ~10% of the black vote or from getting say 15-20% black support plus ~40% of Latinos and Asians.  In the latter scenario, I think the GOP would still hold everything south of VA and east of NM due to the less unanimous black vote.  But yes, MT and the Dakotas are generally within +/-2% of the national white vote, so if Biden is holding up that well...

[Mehmentum]

I checked out a few other polls.  PPP has Biden trailing by 11 with whites (10 points better than Obama in 2012, and 3 points better than Clinton in the poll).  Quinnipiac has Biden trailing by 8 points with whites (compared to Clinton trailing by 14.)

So Biden being stronger with whites looks like a real thing, though this poll is probably an outliar.

[Skill and Chance]

I checked out a few other polls.  PPP has Biden trailing by 11 with whites (10 points better than Obama in 2012, and 3 points better than Clinton in the poll).  Quinnipiac has Biden trailing by 8 points with whites (compared to Clinton trailing by 14.)

So Biden being stronger with whites looks like a real thing, though this poll is probably an outliar.

Fascinating.  On the surface, that sounds like Ohio would be his deciding state under most circumstances.  Although Obama already did worse than nationally with the white vote in VA and FL, so it's to see the former slipping away before Ohio under those circumstances.

[DrScholl]

Someone who isn't running at this point is going to perform better, that's not anything new. If Biden suddenly step in, I would wager he would not maintain positive numbers for long. It's how the electorate works.

[Phony Moderate]

Biden is presumably picking up the working-class, economically centre-left, socially moderate/conservative/apathetic whites who have deserted the Democratic Party in recent decades on the basis of its increasing emphasis on social issues.

[HillOfANight]

Biden is presumably picking up the working-class, economically centre-left, socially moderate/conservative/apathetic whites who have deserted the Democratic Party in recent decades on the basis of its increasing emphasis on social issues.

Remarkable considering that Biden was the first from the administration to back gay marriage. His positions might be different, but he does carry the persona.

[Mehmentum]

Regardless of which party benefits, less racial polarization is definitely a good thing.

[Skill and Chance]

A few observations drawing from the various political events of this summer:

1. Obama's win in 2012 was about the economic recovery being just strong enough.  It was not about women taking offense to a sexist Republican platform.  If anything, the GOP field is running right of Romney on gender issues.  Trump is now routinely doing as well or better with women against Clinton than Romney did against Obama and the other Republicans are even stronger.   It appears that sexism begins mattering to the median female voter around Trump's level of behavior, but not before then.  If true, this represents a major elite/non-elite disconnect in how people perceive the world around them.

2. Clinton playing populist to ward off Warren/Sanders was a big mistake.  She needed/needs to run as an establishment elder statesman who is more moderate than Obama on at least some issues.

3. Which brings me to immigration.  It's clear from Trump's general election polling that Clinton and Obama from 2014-present have simply gone too far left on immigration.  Centrist and even many left-leaning voters who were born here are quite uncomfortable with pure open borders.

4. Any campaigns involving "the first X president" are going to be anomalously polarizing.  Note Kennedy and LBJ's 75-85% Catholic support and how Catholics quickly trended R to support Nixon by 1972.  Obviously we didn't have polling back then, but it's also clear that Northerners were very uncomfortable with Wilson in 1916 as the 1st Southern president since the Civil War and there was clear Protestant/Catholic polarization with Al Smith in 1928.  Those of us who have speculated about a 90/10 D minority vote and 70/30 R white vote in the 2020's may look quite shortsighted soon.

[Eraserhead]

Repeat after me: Hillary Clinton is a lying disingenuous broad who is nothing but a political celebrity due to a cheating spouse who actually has done something. She is not a leader or ready to be commander in chief in the slightest bit whatsoever.

The more people hear/see her, the more she'll drop.

I don't like Clinton at all but take this sexist garbage elsewhere please.

[Mr. Illini]

Biden is presumably picking up the working-class, economically centre-left, socially moderate/conservative/apathetic whites who have deserted the Democratic Party in recent decades on the basis of its increasing emphasis on social issues.

Remarkable considering that Biden was the first from the administration to back gay marriage. His positions might be different, but he does carry the persona.

It is all about perception.

[Maxwell]

Repeat after me: Hillary Clinton is a lying disingenuous broad who is nothing but a political celebrity due to a cheating spouse who actually has done something. She is not a leader or ready to be commander in chief in the slightest bit whatsoever.

The more people hear/see her, the more she'll drop.

Post something new dude.