FL-PPP: Clinton trails everybody but Cruz/Huckabee

[MT Treasurer]

The GOP should be terrified of Clinton's strength in FL. Bush or Rubio have to be on the ticket.

In my opinion, Florida will be a perfect bellwether in 2016 without Hillary on the ballot. With Hillary however, it will be lean Dem. In 2020 however, it will surely be a lean Dem already.

I've long been saying that Florida will be one of the biggest movers in Democratic direction in the whole 2016 season, and this semi-released poll just confirms that picture. Floridians now have a progressive view on almost every social issue out there, from minimum wage increase to banning weapons in cinema theatres, including the most recent shift on attitudes towards gay marriage (despite it being one of the US states with the oldest population), which just enhance this view of a serious and solid upcoming Democratic penetration. Almost the only issue Republicans can play on in Florida right now is the Affordable Care Act, and even towards that issue, the supporters appear twice as strong as in the nation as a whole. The opponents are only leading by 9% in Florida, while they're leading by about 18% nationwide. So unless GOP succeeds with turning the 2016 election into a referendum on ACA, a strategy they're extremely unlikely to succeed with (I'd say the likelihood of that is less than 1%), then most Republican candidates are bound to lose in Florida in 2016.

Other states that will move significantly in 2016 will be Arizona and Texas. California will of course continue its Democratic trendline, as will probably (although not surely) Virginia and North Carolina. Also, almost the entire South, including Missouri (but possibly (probably?) without West Virginia) will trend Democratic. Some states will undoubtedly trend Republican, most prominently the two Dakotas.

What makes Clinton such a good fit for Florida?

Her age. She's even older than the average age of a Floridian adult.

Image if our magnificent and all powerful All Mighty God designed a state that was demographically perfect for Clinton. Florida is that state. She will run up the numbers here and send the Republicans packing before their convention has even ended.

link

Clinton 54, Christie 33
Clinton 53, Paul 37
Clinton 49, Bush 42
Clinton 53, Rubio 39
Clinton 51, Ryan 38

Florida is a lean Dem state, the only reason why it was close in 2012 was due to the cutbacks in early voting and the ridiculously long lines on Election Day. In 2016 the demographics will be even more Dem friendly more blacks, Latinos, and less whites 65+. Simple math!

[MT Treasurer]

In Florida, Kerry got 42% of whites in 2004, Obama got 42% in 2008, and 37% in 2012.

In this poll, she only gets 33% against vs Bush, 29% vs Carson, 34% vs Rubio, 31% vs Bush.

This just seems very implausible, along with the 19% of African Americans voting for Scott Walker among other things.

Is there any poll showing Republicans ahead that "HillOfANight" won't "unskew"? No one cares whether you find this plausible or not. PPP is not known for being a Republican hack pollster.