FL-PPP: Clinton trails everybody but Cruz/Huckabee

[pbrower2a]

With these numbers, the Republicans pick up the two contested seats that Democrats now hold (CO, NV) and might lose nothing. I see the Republicans picking up states that they have not lost after 1988 -- maybe Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, and Pennsylvania. Republicans will not have enough House or Senate seats to force Constitutional change on their own... but that will be the sole solace for Democrats, unless it is something like "Gee, I never thought that I would like Slovenia this much".  

Of course this could imply nothing more than the political collapse of Hillary Clinton, who has not handled the e-mail controversy well.

[pbrower2a]

"Establishment" Republicans are faring badly no matter how weakly Democrats are doing. We need look at the low numbers of "Establishment" Republicans who are not stirring the passions of a Right that wants fundamental change in American life. The attempt to win passions poses the risk of creating opportunities for extreme gaffes. Establishment candidates like Bush and Walker are becoming more strident and reckless -- which might ensure that they lose respectability should the non-establishment types not prevail. 

The e-mail scandal is hurting Hillary Clinton. She recovers from it slowly if at all -- most likely because it can fade into irrelevance.

The 2016 Presidential election has gone from thoroughly predictable to utterly wild, with one front-runner replacing the other in a weird game of musical chars.