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Author Topic: WI/IL Clarity Campaign Labs: Duckworth+4, Feingold+8  (Read 3529 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: September 17, 2015, 01:10:49 pm »

Wisconsin:

Feingold (D): 47%
Johnson (R): 39%

Illinois:

Duckworth (D): 45%
Kirk (R): 41%

The Illinois poll surveyed 948 voters between Sept. 10 and Sept. 14 with a mix of automated and live phone calls, and has a margin of error of 3.2 percent. The Wisconsin poll was conducted between Sept. 1 and Sept. 3, and surveyed 775 voters with a mix of automated and live phone calls. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percent. The polls were conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs.

http://atr.rollcall.com/poll-democrats-lead-illinois-wisconsin-senate-races/
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2015, 01:16:30 pm »

Dominating!
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yeah_93
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2015, 01:28:37 pm »

Kirk and Feingold seem to be in a worse position than the 2014 incumbents were at this time of the cycle.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2015, 02:29:54 pm »

Kirk is going to get Blanched. Praying that Johnson does as well, but Wisconsin is too polarized for that to happen.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2015, 02:57:38 pm »

Terrible numbers for Duckworth, good ones for Feingold.
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Joshua
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2015, 04:53:11 pm »

Terrible numbers for Duckworth, good ones for Feingold.

Agreed. The political dynamics of Illinois should be rocketing her ahead.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2015, 06:34:48 pm »

No, this isn't terribly bad news for her. Every statewide race including Gov and senate races are incredibly close. Even Oberweis gave Durbin a run for his money.
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« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2015, 08:59:58 pm »

No, this isn't terribly bad news for her. Every statewide race including Gov and senate races are incredibly close. Even Oberweis gave Durbin a run for his money.

54-43 was an unusually narrow margin for Durbin, but it's not really close at all.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2015, 05:19:16 pm »

Terrible numbers for Duckworth, good ones for Feingold.

Agreed. The political dynamics of Illinois should be rocketing her ahead.
Not necessarily at this stage of the game. Kirk has a long, hard road ahead of him to keep this seat, even if the Republicans win the presidency by a significant margin.

Remember that Mark Pryor was still ahead of Tom Cotton at this point in the 2014 campaign. Pryor didn't even end up breaking 40 in November.

I am very concerned about Kirk's ability to campaign effectively for this seat. Have you watched any of his speeches lately? It really looks like that stroke has taken a toll on him. I love the guy if you can't tell, but I really have my doubts.

If I were a liberal, I'd be more worried about Feingold. Sure, he's leading by a ton now, but a lot of that is due to name recognition (although I'm sure he'd be leading anyway, but not by this much). Wisconsin is not as blue a state as Illinois.

Kirk's fortune will have a lot to do with downstate and the collar counties, which vote purple or even blue in presidential elections but bright red in statewide ones. He must win at least 96-97 out of the state's 102 counties to win, period.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2015, 07:27:42 pm »

Kirk voted against immigration reform; comments coming from Kasich and Trump against Mexicans are tea Party comments. And compares to the damage done by Rick Perry when he tea partied Romney on hiring an illegal.

Keep going Trump and Kasich.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2015, 11:48:33 am »

I still think Ron Johnson is much more vulnerable than Kirk. Wisconsin is one of the most inelastic states in the country (the Mississippi of the North, if you want) and it's just very hard to see a progressive, liberal electorate that voted for Tammy Baldwin over Tommy Thompson reelect a conservative like Johnson. Illinois at least has moderate Democratic-leaning voters that are willing to split to their ticket and unlike almost all the red state Democrats, Kirk IS an actual moderate (in fact, he's hardly a Republican). I'd be shocked if he lost by more than 4 or 5 points. Both races will be interesting to watch, I'm still convinced that at least one of them will win reelection (still rooting for Johnson because he's a decent Senator who at least has the guts to legislate as a Republican and Feingold is a fraud). My ratings at this point:
WI: Leans D (Johnson probably has to pull a Heitkamp to win this race, possible but unlikely at this point in time)
IL: Toss-up (This forum really overestimates how vulnerable Kirk is)

No. How does someone like JB Van Hollen (R) win by 16 points in the same year Doug LaFollette (D) wins by 3? Its a state that elected Ron Johnson, Tammy Baldwin, Scott Walker, and Barack Obama. Plus, look how much of non-southern Wisconsin swung in 2012! Outside the counties that are obvious strongholds, Wisconsin is in fact elastic.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2015, 04:54:18 pm »

^WI is a Toss-up state in midterm years and a pretty Democratic state at the presidential level. If WI is such an elastic state, why did Thommy Tompson have no crossover appeal at all in 2012? Also, this:



Hardly a sign of elasticity.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2015, 06:00:28 pm »

^WI is a Toss-up state in midterm years and a pretty Democratic state at the presidential level. If WI is such an elastic state, why did Thommy Tompson have no crossover appeal at all in 2012? Also, this:



Hardly a sign of elasticity.

Thommy Thompson didn't run a campaign anything near to the effect of when he was governor. He was a huge disappointment, and in today's terms of polarization, he wasn't going to get much farther than Mitt Romney anyway. If you look at some of the rural counties, Baldwin actually outperformed Obama in many of them, but again southern Wisconsin is nearly exactly the same. To address the Walker elections, Walker had to have a lot of cross-over voters from 2008. He took them, and he held them gaining not much else over his elections. Its not like all the people who sit out in midterms are Democrats, and to back up that assertion is an exit poll showed that in the 2012 recall 18% of Walker voters planned on voting for Obama. Its sounds crazy, but its the truth.

I really understand where you're coming from, Wisconsin looks very inelastic on outside, but its really average as a whole.
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2015, 08:11:38 pm »

^ Also, the exit poll from the 2012 recall had Obama winning by 6, about the same margin as Walker ended up winning by. As polarizing as Walker was/is, he basically ran 13% ahead of Romney - pretty elastic.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2015, 10:38:13 am »

Just like Christie who brought order through justice dept back to Jersey after Corzine, Walker did the same after Doyle. Dem Barrett wasnt seen as a law and order guy.

But the union unrest, like the Bridgegate debacle,  saw the unraveling of that movement, and both of them just as DC Boehner and McConnell, was seen in same light. Same with Rauner, who's undoing when he couldn't get budget out of Madigan.

That's why Dems will win IL, WI and do well in Nv, FL, CO, Pa & OH
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2015, 05:20:40 pm »

Duckworth isn't a very good candidate, except maybe on paper.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2015, 05:43:49 pm »

She's been leading in every poll. Kirk voted against immigration reform and that is one reason why he us tied with her.
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Castro
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2015, 05:44:23 pm »

Duckworth isn't a very good candidate, except maybe on paper.

As long as that paper is a ballot, she'll be fine.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2015, 07:57:46 pm »

Lean D, Lean D
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