NH: WMUR/UNH: Ayotte up

[Skye]

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_senate100515.pdf

Ayotte 45
Hassan 43

Also, favorables:

Hassan 52/26
Ayotte 47/28

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looks about right. This race should be very close right up to election day.

[JMT]

Yeah, this race will most likely be close throughout the whole cycle. At this point I could see either Hassan or Ayotte winning. Pure tossup. Dems must be very happy Hassan decided to run for Senate, I know I am!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can afford a loss in Pa, as FL, OH & NV will be close as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Ayotte should be up by double digits right now. Hassan hasn't even started campaigning and Republicans usually do very well in the early polls. Leans D.

[Skye]

Ayotte should be up by double digits right now. Hassan hasn't even started campaigning and Republicans usually do very well in the early polls. Leans D.

Incumbency probably plays a role that puts Ayotte in the lead, but I wouldn't call it a leans D when the democrat has trailed in the last few polls. You yourself criticize dem hacks here who like to ignore when polls don't favor them, don't be like them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Portman; Ayotte, Kirk, Johnson & Jolly have been consistently tied or behind their Dem opponents in a presidential yr. That's not good enough to be an inc.

[smoltchanov]

Portman; Ayotte, Kirk, Johnson & Jolly have been consistently tied or behind their Dem opponents in a presidential yr. That's not good enough to be an inc.

Ayotte was usually ahead, Portman - depends on poll, Jolly is NOT an incumbent. Johnson - yes, almost always. But, usually, only he and Kirk...

[bballrox4717]

Hassan isn't going to win this race unless Ayotte's approval ratings plummet. The popular incumbent will win nearly every time, even if their opponent is popular as well.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ayotte should be up by double digits right now. Hassan hasn't even started campaigning and Republicans usually do very well in the early polls. Leans D.

TN, don't take this the wrong way, but you're really not making much sense. You're trying to pull things out of your ass to make this Lean D. Any logical conclusion would be that this is a toss-up at the moment. Certainly you could be projecting into the future, and that's fine, though it doesn't make much sense that Pennsylvania would be Likely R if that's the case.

[MT Treasurer]

Ayotte should be up by double digits right now. Hassan hasn't even started campaigning and Republicans usually do very well in the early polls. Leans D.

TN, don't take this the wrong way, but you're really not making much sense. You're trying to pull things out of your ass to make this Lean D. Any logical conclusion would be that this is a toss-up at the moment. Certainly you could be projecting into the future, and that's fine, though it doesn't make much sense that Pennsylvania would be Likely R if that's the case.

I have never claimed that PA is Likely R. Never. It's still an uphill climb for the GOP, but it is certainly more winnable than NH. Just because Larry Sabato says that NH is an elastic state, that doesn't make it true. The Hassan-Ayotte race may be a Toss-up at the moment and Ayotte may just barely survive (with 48%/49% of the vote) if she runs a perfect campaign (her gender will certainly play a huge role as well), but I think all female Hillary voters will support Hassan in the end.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ayotte should be up by double digits right now. Hassan hasn't even started campaigning and Republicans usually do very well in the early polls. Leans D.

TN, don't take this the wrong way, but you're really not making much sense. You're trying to pull things out of your ass to make this Lean D. Any logical conclusion would be that this is a toss-up at the moment. Certainly you could be projecting into the future, and that's fine, though it doesn't make much sense that Pennsylvania would be Likely R if that's the case.

I have never claimed that PA is Likely R. Never. It's still an uphill climb for the GOP, but it is certainly more winnable than NH. Just because Larry Sabato says that NH is an elastic state, that doesn't make it true. The Hassan-Ayotte race may be a Toss-up at the moment and Ayotte may just barely survive (with 48%/49% of the vote) if she runs a perfect campaign (her gender will certainly play a huge role as well), but I think all female Hillary voters will support Hassan in the end.

You colored it as Likely R in your most recent post in the senate predictions thread.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Inb4 all the red avatars come in and somehow spin this poll as evidence that Hassan will win big.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ayotte isnt Mark Kirk, but I dont doubt the Clinton coattails in a state like NH, just like Clinton is on Sanders heals in the primary and clinch the nomination.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ayotte should be up by double digits right now. Hassan hasn't even started campaigning and Republicans usually do very well in the early polls. Leans D.

TN, don't take this the wrong way, but you're really not making much sense. You're trying to pull things out of your ass to make this Lean D. Any logical conclusion would be that this is a toss-up at the moment. Certainly you could be projecting into the future, and that's fine, though it doesn't make much sense that Pennsylvania would be Likely R if that's the case.

I have never claimed that PA is Likely R. Never. It's still an uphill climb for the GOP, but it is certainly more winnable than NH. Just because Larry Sabato says that NH is an elastic state, that doesn't make it true. The Hassan-Ayotte race may be a Toss-up at the moment and Ayotte may just barely survive (with 48%/49% of the vote) if she runs a perfect campaign (her gender will certainly play a huge role as well), but I think all female Hillary voters will support Hassan in the end.

You colored it as Likely R in your most recent post in the senate predictions thread.

Yeah, but I was talking about the presidential race. It's true that I've rated the PA Senate race Likely R - and for good reasons, too. I'll probably move NH from Leans D to Toss-up soon, though.

I went and saw the post, and there was nothing about the presidential race. There's really no justification for PA being Likely R. Its less elastic than the nation, and the Democratic presidential candidate will give the Democratic senatorial candidate a high floor. Even if its something like the Governor race in 2010, PA should at the most be Lean R unless Sestak or McGinty kills someone.

Don't mean to be hard on you, it just doesn't make much sense to me.

[Miles]

Inb4 all the red avatars come in and somehow spin this poll as evidence that Hassan will win big.

If either of them wins, its not gonna be by a huge margin.