FL-PPP (2018): Nelson leads Scott by 4
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  FL-PPP (2018): Nelson leads Scott by 4
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Author Topic: FL-PPP (2018): Nelson leads Scott by 4  (Read 2611 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 17, 2015, 05:11:46 PM »

Nelson (D): 46%
Scott (R): 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_91615.pdf
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2015, 05:16:20 PM »

LOL what? How does Nelson pull of landslides in his elections when he's barely leading Scott?
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mencken
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2015, 05:18:57 PM »

Harris and Mack had not been elected twice to statewide office despite tough opposition.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2015, 05:19:49 PM »

LOL what? How does Nelson pull of landslides in his elections when he's barely leading Scott?

Polls started out tight in 2012 as well. 2006 was 2006. And 2000 was a much tighter win. I'd expect a win in between the 2000 margin and 2012 margin for Nelson in 2018.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2015, 05:29:47 PM »

LOL what? How does Nelson pull of landslides in his elections when he's barely leading Scott?

Nelson has had disastrous opponents run against him. He's had amazing luck.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2015, 05:35:33 PM »

I can confirm with complete certainty that Scott will not be a candidate for Senate in 2018. He's just a name being strategically floated by the RPOF to keep interest and speculation going about the election. In the end, the runner up in the 2016 primary (Jolly, DeSantis, or CLC) will probably run.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2015, 09:39:59 AM »

Unless Nelson retires the GOP is gonna have a tough nut to crack again winning the senate seat. ND and MO are more vulnerable; they should look elsewhere to pickup seats. Nelson was only one that would have won the gov race in 2014.
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sg0508
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2015, 11:14:02 AM »

Connie Mack IV was up on Nelson during the summer of '14 and then completed faded.  Nobody really understands what happened.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2015, 12:04:55 PM »

As someone who doesn't live in Florida, it seems to me that Nelson is a relatively inoffensive senator. Since nobody seems to have a problem with him, why should they get rid of him? And again, there's also the fact that pretty much every candidate he's faced has run a less-than-stellar campaign.

If Scott does run and Nelson does indeed seek reelection, I can see Nelson winning a fourth term by a decent margin.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2015, 02:01:43 PM »

As someone who doesn't live in Florida, it seems to me that Nelson is a relatively inoffensive senator. Since nobody seems to have a problem with him, why should they get rid of him?

Maybe because of an unpopular Democratic president and the fact that 2018 could turn out to be a GOP wave, hmmm? Bill Nelson has always had so much luck (Democratic waves, terrible opponents, etc.) but 2018 might indeed be the fight of his life.
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Skye
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2015, 02:10:13 PM »

Yeah, I don't think Scott is going to go for this.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2015, 02:40:16 PM »

That 42% is probably what Scott would get in an actual election.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2015, 04:11:52 PM »

As someone who doesn't live in Florida, it seems to me that Nelson is a relatively inoffensive senator. Since nobody seems to have a problem with him, why should they get rid of him?

Maybe because of an unpopular Democratic president and the fact that 2018 could turn out to be a GOP wave, hmmm? Bill Nelson has always had so much luck (Democratic waves, terrible opponents, etc.) but 2018 might indeed be the fight of his life.

True, that could happen. But the fact that Scott barely won both of his gubernatorial campaigns against not-so-great opponents leads me to believe that if he were the nominee, Nelson could probably defeat him without too much trouble.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2015, 12:30:23 AM »

That 42% is probably what Scott would get in an actual election.
I would hate to agree with you, but yes, Nelson would steamroll Scott. Which is why Scott isn't running for Senate and why this thread is nothing but idle speculation.
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PPT Spiral
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2015, 03:08:43 PM »

Sanchez, is there anything to Scott running for President down the road? There was a smattering of speculation earlier this year and Scott always seemed more interested in national issues.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2015, 03:16:51 PM »

Florida is out of Republicans.

But anyway, this isn't really good news, as if a Dem wins in 2016, 2018 will probably see a 2014-esque pro-GOP climate (which will, of course, not help Nelson).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2015, 03:42:51 PM »

Florida is out of Republicans.

But anyway, this isn't really good news, as if a Dem wins in 2016, 2018 will probably see a 2014-esque pro-GOP climate (which will, of course, not help Nelson).

Not necessarily true. NELSON was leading in polls in 2014, even when Charlie Crist was behind or kneck and kneck with Scott.

Dems are expected to win gov races in 2018 in IL, MI, NV & FL should Charlie Crist in FL 13 be warrented in 2016.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2015, 04:01:08 PM »

Florida is out of Republicans.

But anyway, this isn't really good news, as if a Dem wins in 2016, 2018 will probably see a 2014-esque pro-GOP climate (which will, of course, not help Nelson).

Not even close brother.
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Hydera
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2015, 04:22:36 PM »

Florida is out of Republicans.

But anyway, this isn't really good news, as if a Dem wins in 2016, 2018 will probably see a 2014-esque pro-GOP climate (which will, of course, not help Nelson).

Not necessarily true. NELSON was leading in polls in 2014, even when Charlie Crist was behind or kneck and kneck with Scott.

Dems are expected to win gov races in 2018 in IL, MI, NV & FL should Charlie Crist in FL 13 be warrented in 2016.

Don't think so. The Anti incumbency factors IF a democrat wins would pull down statewide candidates of any party.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2015, 04:33:22 PM »

There is no doom and gloom on the part of Dems in 2018, Hilary isnt Obama and work with Boehner's leadership to get something done on immigration and Keystone pipeline. DON'T see a 3rd GOP wave in midterm happening, yet.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2015, 05:38:10 PM »

Sanchez, is there anything to Scott running for President down the road? There was a smattering of speculation earlier this year and Scott always seemed more interested in national issues.
I think he thinks he can be President, but the RPOF itself is not deluded enough to agree with his theory. If Scott runs in 2020, he polls consistently at 2-3% and would be a pre-Iowa dropout. And I say that as a huge fan of his who would proudly support his campaign.
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2015, 02:35:31 PM »

Lol "kneck and kneck".
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