MI-MRG: Clinton in close race with Bush, Fiorina, and Trump

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton wont win the Wolverine state by 10, she should win the dtate by four, just like Kerry did over a decade ago.

MI, WI & Pa usually polls with Natl average and Clinton is leading by four.

That's... not accurate. Kerry lost the national PV by 2.5 but won all of those states.

For example, WI has been an average of +3 more D than the nation as a whole since 1992. The same is true for MI and slightly for PA.

I did the work for you

Since 1992
WI - D+3 vs D national popular vote
MI - D+3 vs D national popular vote
PA - D+1.5 v D national popular vote

So if say a Hillary were to win by the same margin as Obama 51-47 in 2016...
You'd expect
WI - 54%
MI - 54%
PA - 52.5%

[Joe Republic]

Fun fact: almost exactly four years ago, MRG put Obama only 1 point ahead of Romney in Michigan.  Over a year later he went on to win it by nearly 10 points, of course.

And maybe that's what would have happened if the election had occurred in September 2011. Obama's approval on September 23, 2011 was 43/51 per RCP. On election day 2012, it was much better - 50/47.

Yeah but don't forget, Barack Obama was 50 years old in September 2011, whereas on election day he was 51.  However, Mitt Romney was 64 in September 2011, and then went on to be 65 on election day when Obama beat him.