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jaichind
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« Reply #125 on: May 20, 2017, 07:32:38 am »

With around 270K out of 280K vote counted so it is pretty much over it is

Wu     52.8%
Hong  19.6%
Hau    16.3%
Han      5.9%
Dang    4.5%
Pang     0.9%

Hung vastly under-performed.   She won around 53K votes which is a lot less than the 79K she won in the 2016 KMT leadership by-election.   The minor candidates vote over-performed.  It is clear, just like I projected, the Wu-Hau marginal undecided voters all went to Wu pushing him over 50%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #126 on: May 20, 2017, 09:56:42 am »

In the end with around 273K votes it is

Wu     53.0%
Hong  19.5%
Hau    16.2%
Han      5.9%
Dang    4.5%
Pang     0.9%

Everyone seems to have accepted this decisive win by Wu as a clear mandate and there are no signs of any splits as a result of this race.  So the KMT passed the first step toward being a viable party in 2020.  The next test is to win by Taipei City and New Taipei City in 2018.  If they do not do that they are out in 2020 regardless of how unpopular Tsai might be.
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jaichind
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« Reply #127 on: May 21, 2017, 08:43:24 am »

CCP General Secretary Xi letter to Wu on his election victory



Header: Central Committee of the China Communist Party

To Taipei: China KMT Central Committee Mr. Wu Dunyi:

I would like to congratulate you on the occasion of your election as Chairman of the KMT. Since 2008, the two parties have maintained a common political foundation and promoted the peaceful development of cross-strait relations. At present, the peaceful development of cross-strait relations is facing challenges and hopes that the two parties will adhere to the consensus on the well-being of the two sides and firmly oppose "Taiwan independence" and grasp the correct direction of peaceful development of cross-strait relations and struggle with the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Best of health

Chairman of the Central Committee of the China Communist Party Xi Jinping

May 20 2017



Wu's response is



Header: Central Committee of the China KMT

To China Communist Party Central Committee General Secretary Xi Jinping

Thanks for the May 20 letter of congratulations.

In 1992, the two sides reached a "cross-strait adhere to the One-China principle, but for its meaning, the two sides agreed to use oral statements for each their own expression" on the basis of consensus, after years of efforts to promote institutionalized consultations, signed a number of agreements.  From tension to peaceful development, the effectiveness of this consensus is for all to see.

Now, cross-strait exchanges and communication channels have hindered, I will lead the comrades of the our party to assume the important task for the people of both sides for the well-being of life, rights and interests protection, social and economic exchanges, and cultural heritage innovation will be our goal going forward.

Looking forward to the future, we hope that the two parties will continue to deepen the "1992 consensus", promote cross-strait peace and institutionalization, mutual respect and tolerance, promote Chinese culture, promote cross-strait sustainable development and cooperation towards a broad open path.

Best of health

Chairman-elected of the China KMT Wu Dunyi

May 20 2017 (106th year of ROC)
« Last Edit: May 21, 2017, 08:53:32 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #128 on: May 21, 2017, 08:50:03 am »

Now after about a year into office Tsai will have a real "Leader of the Opposition" as Hung was bogged down by internal battles within the KMT.

This comes at a bad time for Tsai as the PRC is stepping up their pressure while DPP ex-Prez Chen is trying to rally the radical Taiwan Independence bloc as an internal pressure group against Tsai with support of NPP.  Of course Chen's agenda who is out of jail on medical leave is to force Tsai to grant Chen amnesty.  If Tsai is down to 25%-30% approval rating she might have no choice since that 25%-30% are die-hard Chen backers.  Of course doing so will alienate the other 65% of the electorate that are anti-Chen.
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« Reply #129 on: May 21, 2017, 09:37:22 am »

Yup. Wu will make KMT more viable than Hung, who is pro-unification diehard. Her ideology is very toxic to genuine Taiwanese who would prefer autonomy to reunification.

Ex-President Chen is too fragile to make a third run for office. What the radical pro-independence bloc could do is to rally around Tsai or blow up the entire bloc with DPP by nominating their own candidate. Of course, any of their candidates will be marginalized, but they all have a floor of around 7-8%. Some include Chen Chimai, MP for territory-wide at-large constituency and the forerunner for mayor of Kaohsiung (to succeed 3-term 'flora lady' Kiku Chen).
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jaichind
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« Reply #130 on: May 28, 2017, 09:45:12 pm »

Yup. Wu will make KMT more viable than Hung, who is pro-unification diehard. Her ideology is very toxic to genuine Taiwanese who would prefer autonomy to reunification.

Ex-President Chen is too fragile to make a third run for office. What the radical pro-independence bloc could do is to rally around Tsai or blow up the entire bloc with DPP by nominating their own candidate. Of course, any of their candidates will be marginalized, but they all have a floor of around 7-8%. Some include Chen Chimai, MP for territory-wide at-large constituency and the forerunner for mayor of Kaohsiung (to succeed 3-term 'flora lady' Kiku Chen).


Chen's goal is not to run again for Prez but to leverage his pull with the radical pro-independence bloc to pressure Tsai to grant amnesty.  Of course Tsai cannot do this especially when her polling number are low or else she would be seen as throwing her lot in with the Deep Green pro-Independence bloc and lose her pull on the Light Green and Light Blue voters.  The time for her to do this was when she had high approval ratings a year ago when doing so would be more seen as an attempt to defuse a controversial issue.  The DPP now is split between three blocs (the Deep Green Chen faction, the Tsai faction and New Tide.)  The Chen bloc clearly is going after Tsai to get their share of the ruling spoils when New Tide switches back and forth between these two blocs.

The word on the political rumor-mill is that Lai who is seen as the de facto leader New Tide faction will run in either Taipei or New Taipei mayoral race in 2018  if Tsai is above 30% approval rating and below 50% disapproval rating.  If she is in worse shape then that then New Tide will have written off Tsai as having a good shot at re-election in 2020 and would back Lai to challenge her for the DPP nomination in 2020.  This rumor sounds logical but I think seems unusual.  New Tide faction rise to power within DPP is similar to the Japan Tanaka faction in the 1974-1989 period which is not seek the top position (LDP President/PM in Japan and DPP Chairman/President for ROC) but instead be kingmaker and grow the faction power through these deals.  It seems unlike New Tide faction to try to grab the top spot for itself and if it were to do so would represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power in the DPP.

The reason that Lai might not run in Taipei City and New Taipei City mayors, I suspect, more stem from the fact that recent polls show that Lai would lose the top tier KMT candidates in both races.  Lai seems to see himself more as a 2024 DPP Prez candidate if he does have such ambitions so losing prematurely in 2018 would damage his brand especially when DPP fortune are on paper on the ascendancy and the DPP candidate is expected to win.  This is unlike 2006 when Hsieh ran and lost for Taipei Mayor  and in 2010 when Tsai ran and lost in New Taipei City while Su ran and lost in Taipei City.  In 2006 and 2010 DPP fortunes were seen as low so DPP top guns like Hsieh Tsai and Su running in pro-KMT cities were seen within DPP as an act of sacrifice to push up the DPP vote share and tie down KMT resources away from other pro-DPP cities/counties.  But after 2014 and 2016 the political map has been re-calibrated and the expectations within DPP is for DPP to win in both Taipei City and New Taipei city if a top tier candidate like Lai were to run so if he lost that would ruin his chances in 2020 and 2024.
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« Reply #131 on: May 31, 2017, 09:15:01 am »

Yup. Wu will make KMT more viable than Hung, who is pro-unification diehard. Her ideology is very toxic to genuine Taiwanese who would prefer autonomy to reunification.
But after 2014 and 2016 the political map has been re-calibrated and the expectations within DPP is for DPP to win in both Taipei City and New Taipei city if a top tier candidate like Lai were to run so if he lost that would ruin his chances in 2020 and 2024.
He could be easily ditched by either Ting or Chu in Taipei City. He also faces an uphill battle in New Taipei city, as his major opponent, Hou Youyi, is ramping up support city-wide.
The only outlook for him not to be dumped so early is to become the PM.
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jaichind
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« Reply #132 on: May 31, 2017, 08:28:04 pm »

Global Views Monthly annual survey of mayor/county magistrate approval rating.



One can look at the approval ratings to derive a 2018 projection.  If the incumbent is running for re-election then an approval rating of 40-43 need to have it to be tossup.  If it is an open seat then an approval rating of the incumbent of 50-53 is needed for the seat to be a tossup.  Of course the PVI of the city/county will also shift the rating.   If so the KMT is looking in 2018 to pickup Taipei City, Jiayi City, and Yilan County.  

The KMT is in danger of losing the open seat of New Taipei City although it seems less and less likely.  KMT could in theory also lose the open seat of Hsinchu County which has a massive KMT lean.  The problem is one of the two local KMT factions has joined forces with DPP so KMT might have a fight on its hands.  This similar to Jiayi County where back in the 1980s it was a very strong KMT county.  But the KMT Lin faction broke with the KMT Huang faction back in the late 1990s and joined forces with the DPP and over 1999-2004 turned a lean KMT county to a solid DPP county.  History might repeat itself in Hsinchu County.

Yilan county had the DPP incumbent stepped down to join the DPP cabinet at the central government level.  But it was going to be an open seat that the overall approval rating of DPP in Yilan was not positive so it is lean KMT despite the PVI rating of DPP+6.

Overall DPP is strong at the local level despite falling ratings of the DPP at the national level.  Kaoshiung and Tainan county local DPP is very popular and should easily win these two open seats.  Popular DPP incumbents in lean KMT cities like Keelong City, Taoyuan City, and Hsinchu City mean that the KMT will have to wait until 2022 to recapture those cities.  If the DPP incumbent in swing county Taichung City ratings continues to fall the KMT might have a chance there as well.

                                 Incumbent   Open Seat     2017 Approval     PVI        Rating  

Special municipality
Taipei City                   Pro-DPP           No                  42.9           KMT+6    Lean KMT
New Taipei City             KMT              Yes                  55.4           KMT+2    Lean KMT
Taoyuan City                DPP                No                  70.5           KMT+5    Solid DPP
Taichung City               DPP                No                  49.3           KMT+0    Lean DPP
Tainan City                  DPP                Yes                  74.7           DPP+11   Landslide DPP
Kaoshiung City            DPP                Yes                  72.0           DPP+7   Landslide DPP

Taiwan Province
Keelong City                DPP                No                   60.1           KMT+8   Lean DPP
Hsinchu County           KMT               Yes                  45.0           KMT+14  Lean KMT
Hsinchu City                DPP                No                   70.0          KMT+5    Solid DPP
Miaoli County               KMT               No                   53.1          KMT+11  Solid KMT
Changhwa County       DPP                No                   47.9          DPP+1     Lean DPP
Nantou County            KMT               No                   66.7          KMT+3    Solid KMT
Yunlin County             DPP                No                    51.5          DPP+8    Solid DPP
Jiayi County                DPP                Yes                   63.2          DPP+10  Solid DPP
Jiayi City                     DPP                No                    36.9          DPP+3    Lean KMT
Pingdong County         DPP                No                    62.5          DPP+8    Landslide DPP
Yilan County               DPP                Yes                   -----           DPP+6     Lean KMT
Hualian County         Pro-KMT           Yes                    73.5          KMT+20  Landslide KMT
Taidong County          KMT                No                    67.3           KMT+18  Landslide KMT
Penghu County          DPP                No                    55.8           KMT+4    Lean DPP

Fujian Province
Jinmen County         Pro-KMT           No                    64.6           KMT+41  Landslide KMT    
Lianjian County         KMT                No                    80.6           KMT+41  Landslide KMT
« Last Edit: June 01, 2017, 05:10:50 am by jaichind »Logged

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jaichind
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« Reply #133 on: June 22, 2017, 08:30:39 pm »

Tsai's approval ratings continue to collapse 



Latest TVBS poll has her approval rating down to 21%.  It is a bunch of pro-DPP pollsters that are keeping her above 25% in the average curve.
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« Reply #134 on: June 23, 2017, 05:45:12 am »

Tsai's approval ratings continue to collapse 

What do you think has caused that?
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« Reply #135 on: June 23, 2017, 05:49:12 am »

Tsai's approval ratings continue to collapse 

What do you think has caused that?
Mainly her labour policy and her stance on China.
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jaichind
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« Reply #136 on: June 23, 2017, 06:00:34 am »

Tsai's approval ratings continue to collapse 

What do you think has caused that?

Several things.  First a labor law adjustment that she insisted on is not working out well.  Then there is the breakdown in her relationship with PRC that has economic impact.  Worst she had this breakdown and still holding what the pro-independence bloc consider moderate positions.  So she lost on both ends.  She did not give the Deep Green DPP any red meat in policy and rhetoric and at the same time there are some economic impact from the breakdown with PRC which drove away moderates.  There is also the ongoing drama related to civil servant/military pension reform which has polarized the civil servant/military bloc against her (they are most pro-KMT anyway.)  On this one there might be some hope for Tsai.  Once the reform passes she can at least claim some sort of policy agenda win.   Lastly she is on this bizarre drive for a stimulus package most of which contain spending on light rail in pretty much every city/county.  There seems little economic justification for this and even pro-DPP think tanks are coming out against it.  In response she is digging in and insisting on the DPP passing the package.   
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« Reply #137 on: June 23, 2017, 06:02:31 am »

How would a left of center politician do in Taiwan who was pro eventual unification?
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« Reply #138 on: June 23, 2017, 06:35:23 am »

Of course we also have the ex-Prez Chen situation.  The pro-Chen bloc (aka radical pro-independence bloc) are getting more strident in demanding that Tsai grant Chen amnesty.  Chen is on medical furlough   from jail although the public consensus outside the pro-Chen bloc is that Chen is mostly faking his medical problems and aided by pro-Chen doctors that spin their analysis to help to get him out of jail.  The pro-Chen bloc is pretty much demanding Tsai announce that Chen is innocent of all crimes he has been convicted off and then grant amnesty.  Of course this runs in face of all objection facts.  Tsai is pretty much dodging this issue is is making Chen and his bloc pretty steamed.  There are plans to create an national organization to push for Chen Amnesty with a target membership of 100K.  Most literature from this pro-Chen proto-organization are threatening to run their on candidates in 2018 and allude to taking down Tsai in 2020.

Tsai is falling into the trap of Ma.  Ma's 2008 landslide victory with 59% of the vote got gave him visions of grandeur and tried to peruse to policy path to win 65% for himself (not for the KMT mind you since simple political calculus shows that is impossible.)  This merely angered the Deep Blue bloc and paved the way for a KMT splinter PFP Soong candidacy in 2012 which Ma managed to beat back.  By not acting fact to grant Chen amnesty Tsai, who won an DPP unprecedented 56% of the vote in 2016, wanted keep winning independents to keep this sort of margin.   It does not seem to be working but for Tsai to grant Chen amnesty now she will be seen as weak and bowing to the Chen faction.

Worse for Tsai, DPP New Tide faction and Tainan City Mayor Lai has been making strange noises on relationship with PRC.  Tsai's hopes were that Lai would run in Taipei City or New Taipei City in 2018 as one he would be the only DPP politician that can be competitive there and two it would make sure he does not challenge Tsai for the DPP nomination in 2020.  Lai seems to have spurned that route and has been making speeches saying that while he still backed Taiwan Independence as a goal, he had to be practical and feel that it is "not a problem to accept" the 1992 Consensus  ("There is One China and both sides has their own interpretation what that One China is") and that he is, wait for it, "Pro-Bejing".  This moves him pretty close to the KMT position with the exception of his vague long term wish for Independence if possible.  Lai has been a pro-independence radical in the past just like Tsai historically has been a moderate on the independence question.  Now the roles are reversed mainly because it is clear that Lai want to use his new position as a basis to challenge Tsai in2020 if her poll numbers does not improve and he can make a case that she is doomed to defeat by the KMT while he can present himself as someone that can beat the KMT and get along with PRC.

Tsai is now facing at  3 front war.  One front against the KMT, one front against the radical Independence Pro-Chen Bloc, and one front from New Tide Lai who has taken on the mantel of the moderates.
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« Reply #139 on: June 23, 2017, 06:44:44 am »

How would a left of center politician do in Taiwan who was pro eventual unification?

For now that is a non starter.  There is no real Left on ROC.  There are Progressive factions in DPP and NPP but not Left.  The Unification-Independence issue has been so prevalent as a point of political cleavage that on economic issues in de facto terms KMT and DPP are both center-right despite their rhetoric.  Also understand that anti-Communism has been used by both Unification bloc and Independence bloc in the past  so both blocs has deep distrust of Communism which in term mean there is no real Left on ROC.  Given the current economic malaise any talk of unification will be seen as surrender and servitude to the PRC. 

In theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_Party_(Taiwan)

Holds this position.  This party has been around in the 1980s and is based on advocating for working class interests.  Several of my relatives (most of them fairly wealthy) were supporters of proto-Labor Party back in the 1980s.  But most of them drifted from a nominal pro-unification position to a very pro-Independence position and now are pro-DPP.  They are still pro-working class policies (which again confuse me all of them I consider members of landowning gentry but whatever) but are now within the DPP whose de facto policies are pro-capitalist class.    My drift has been in the opposite direction.  The Labor Party which is very pro-unification is on the fringe. 
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« Reply #140 on: June 23, 2017, 07:01:08 am »

What should be concerning for Tsai in the TVBS poll is the question: Is Prez Tsai leading us in the right direction where her numbers are under water 32/44.  Ma in his first turn 2008-12 had ups and downs in approval rating and there were cases where his approval ratings went down in the 20s for a while before bouncing back.  But on the question of "direction of Ma's leadership" he was always above water by at least 4%-5%.  It was only a few months into Ma's second term with several scandals breaking out among his associates  that that number went negative and stayed negative paving the way for 2014 and 2016 landslide defeats for KMT.  Going into the 2012 election Ma's numbers on "direction of leadership" was 44/30 and won re-election 51-45-4 (Ma-Tsai-Soong).  Going into 2016 elections Ma's numbers on "direction of leadership" was was 30/46 where the KMT suffered a historical landslide defeat.  Tsai's current numbers of 32/44 of seems a lot like Ma's numbers going into the 2016 election.  Tsai has to improve this number or hope the KMT brand is so bad that she can win a choice election in 2020.
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« Reply #141 on: June 25, 2017, 10:25:43 am »

Since the Unification-Independence is so prominent in ROC politics I though I share some historical data I kept on this.  The ROC Mainland Affairs Council has been doing polling every 3-4 months on this issue since the early 1990s and form the most consistent data set on this issue.  

The choices they give in their polling are
1) Unification now
2) Status quo now but Unification in the future      
3) Status quo now and decided on Unification/independence in the future
4) Status quo forever
5) Status quo now but Independence  in the future    
6) Independence now  
7) DK

I group these opinions into two sections: one that is open to unification in the future which I call Unification+ and one that rules out unification in the future which I call Independence+.  I put 3) as part of Unification+ since this group of people does not rule out unification and 4) as Independence+ since status quo forever is another way of ruling out unification.  For DK I use subjective opinion on the prevent political discourse at the time.  In the early 1990s the political discourse was very negative toward Independence so I count most of DK for the Independence+ bloc since DK is a way to hide their true views given the discourse.  Currently the discourse is very negative toward unification so I count most of DK for Unification+ by the same logic.  

Looking at the data for Unification+ and Independence+ once can see clear breaks at triggering events where the balance of the two changed.  I then created various eras based on these breaks and show the average values of Unification+ and Independence+ during these era.

Pre March 1996   Unification+ 68% Independence+ 32%  
                           Unification 25% Independence 13%

Then came the 1996 election campaign where the PRC directed their fire at KMT incumbent Lee which  in turn radicalized opinion against Unification.  The return of HK in July 1997 added to this anti-unification anxiety as complete takeover by PRC loomed as a risk

March 1996 to Sept 1997  Unification+ 57% Independence+ 43%
                                         Unification 23% Independence 20%

After the 1996 election campaign and return of HK to PRC receded from current events there was a convergence toward the mean on the  Unification/Independence issue

Sept 1997 to July 1998 Unification+ 62% Independence+ 38%
                                     Unification 22% Independence 18%

As the 1998 mid term elections approached it was clear that KMT might fall from power in 2000 which triggered greater debate on the Unification/Independence issue and radicalized the pro-Indepencnece bloc again.  The "Two State theory" stated by KMT Prez Lee and writing by his adviser and future President Tsai Ing-Wen in July 1999 which an attempt by Lee to try to capture the middle ground for the KMT also radicalized the pro-Independence bloc.  

July 1998 to April 2000 Unification+ 58% Independence+ 42%
                                     Unification 18% Independence 20%

The election of DPP Chen in March 2000 made Independence and the risk of war much more real which provoked a surge of anti-independence and pro-unification views

April 2000 to July 2002 Unification+ 63% Independence+ 37%
                                     Unification 20% Independence 18%

In 2002 as Chen looked forward to 2004 re-election it was clear that he was not able to win the middle ground.  So his only hope was to radicalized the pro-Independence bloc to a massive turnout in 2004 to attempt to win re-election.  As a result he introduced legislation for allowing referendum on public policy.  The debate around this topic and the KMT attempt to bloc this provoked the re-radicalization of the pro-Independence bloc.    

July 2002 to March 2008  Unification+ 58% Independence+ 42%
                                        Unification 14% Independence 22%
 
Chen's corruption scandals of 2005-2008 meant that the KMT was going to have a good year in 2008 and indeed Ma won by a landslide in March 2008.  Ma ran on a platform of economic integration with PRC which in turn raised further fear among moderates that he is policies will gut out ROC economically.  As a result pro-independence support further increased and for the first time Independence+ support exceeded Unification+ support.

March 2008 to  March 2014 Unification+ 49% Independence+ 51%
                                           Unification 10% Independence 23%

Ma tried to introduce legislation in 2014 for a services free trade pact with PRC.  This triggered the Sunflower movement to oppose what was seen by pro-Independence bloc as another sell out to the PRC and one more step in PRC taking over Taiwan Province.  As a result pro-Independence support increased a bit more

March 2014 to March 2016 Unification+ 47% Independence+ 53%
                                           Unification  9% Independence 25%    

DPP's Tsai was elected in Jan 2016 and started to reverse some of the Ma's policy agendas with respect to PRC.  As a result the surge in pro-independence support as a result of the Ma administration now receded as  Unification+ overtakes Independence+

March 2016 to now   Unification+ 51% Independence+ 49%
                                Unification 12% Independence 21%
« Last Edit: June 25, 2017, 10:33:13 am by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #142 on: June 30, 2017, 08:38:03 pm »

Formosa e-paper poll (a pro-Green outfit although Formosa Polls is a somewhat more neutral pollster) has Pan-Blues almost caught up with Pan-Greens.  Pan-Blues had large leads in the past but were in a tie with Pan-Greens in the mid-2013 to mid-2014 period before Pan-Greens took the lead for good in mid-2014.  Now the two blocs are near parity again.

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« Reply #143 on: September 05, 2017, 01:03:09 pm »

It seems that Tsai has decided to take on current Tainan Mayor and a New Tide faction rising superstar Lai as the new PM dumping Tsai's favorite Lin in the process.  It is clear it is an attempt to lift her sagging approval numbers and, given her political vulnerability, form an alliance with New Tide.  Of course this means plans of having Lai run in the New Taipei City mayor election in 2018 is out and mostly handing that seat to the KMT.

By agreeing to this New Tide is taking a big chance and breaks from the New Tide tradition of being kingmaker only and never the king much like the role of the Tanaka faction in LDP in the 1980s Japan. New Tide seems to be gambling that Tsai is such poor shape that the New Tide and capture a good part of the power of the executive branch and that the KMT is so far from making a recovery from its 2014-2016 debacle that a Tsia-New Tide alliance can still beat back the KMT in 2020.

Any reason for this alliance is the rise of Taipei mayor Ko.  Ko had a very good run with a very successful 2017 Taipei Summer Universiade and his poll rating is rising.  He has also shifted, in rhetoric, to a much more pro-unification position despite his deep Green background.  Right now he is the only ROC politician that the PRC seems to want to do business with.  At this stage DPP will have no choice back to back Ko lest a 3 way race for Taipei City mayor in 2018 would not only push DPP to third place and also most likely hand the Taipei Mayor back to the KMT. 

There are signs that regardless of if Ko wins re-election in 2018 he might run as an independent in 2020 Prez elections. Ko seems to forming alliance with Pan-Blue PFP and and Pan-Green NPP.  PFP relationship with KMT has not improved since 2016 and NPP's alliance with DPP is mostly over with NPP poised to challenge DPP across the board in 2018.   2020 could be very interesting with the grand third force alliance Ko-PFP-NPP running against DPP's Tsia-Lai and KMT's Wu.  The DPP Chen faction might get into the act as well.  If the Ko candidacy can catch fire it might be a very close 3 way race in 2020 with something like  Wu (KMT) 35 Tsai (DPP) 35 and Ko (PFP-NPP) 30 and it being anyone's race.
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« Reply #144 on: September 20, 2017, 05:56:14 am »

In Taipei city nominal DPP ally Ko is pretty much nearing the breaking point with DPP.  Ko, who comes from a extreme pro-Taiwan Independence, has opportunistically taken on a pro-CCP position that even the KMT is afraid to take.  His strategy seems to be to take advantage of the DPP's fear of a KMT comeback in Taipei and then publicly humiliate DPP by taking pro-KMT and even pro-CCP positions to pull in the KMT vote.  Out of self respect the DPP is getting pretty close to cutting off Ko and run a DPP candidate in 2018 come hell or high heaven.

The result in 2018 in such a case could be volatile.  Most likely it would be

Ko     40
KMT  35
DPP   25

But if Ko continues to take on pro-KMT positions and the KMT does not run a strong candidate it could end up being

Ko    40
DPP  35
KMT  25

At this stage Ko is having it both ways. For the DPP voter he is the anti-KMT candidate, for the KMT voter he is the anti-Tsai candidate and for the Youth vote he is the non-politician tell it like it is candidate.  Ko is guaranteed at least a second place finish which poses a lethal threat to both KMT and DPP if either party becomes the third place candidate.  In such a case the logic of tactical voting would drive one of the two parties to a disastrous showing.   In theory right now that is the DPP but one cannot be sure in a 3 way race and would depend on the candidates.

Only way Ko can be beaten now is if somehow the race becomes

Ko     33
KMT  33
DPP   33

And last minute tactical voting works against ko.

If Ko loses re-election he will run in 2020 Prez race for sure.  Even if Ko wins it is very likely that Ko will run in 2020  if both Tsai and KMT have not gotten out of the dumpster in the polls. 
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« Reply #145 on: September 20, 2017, 06:14:34 am »

The DPP civil war in 嘉義縣 (Jaiyi County) is getting to farcical levels.    Jaiyi county used to be one of the most pro-KMT counties with the KMT Huang factions and KMT Lin factions against the DPP.  Then in 2001 Lin faction leader 陳明文 (Chen Ming-wen) broke with the KMT and took the Lin faction into the DPP with Chen becoming the County Magistrate of Jiayi.



At the same time KMT MP 曾振農(Tseng Chen-nung) who had his own micro-faction within the KMT but is friendly with Chen also left the KMT to take a pro-DPP position.  Tseng soon left politics to return to business but arranged for his wife 張花冠 (Helen Chang) to take over his faction which she moved in DPP with Chang becoming a DPP MP.  Tseng himself passed away on a business trip in Cambodia in 2008 making Chang a widow.



Chen and Chang became close political allies as these two KMT transplants pretty much took over the Jaiyi County DPP and repeatably beat the KMT Huang faction in elections post-2001.   Chen was Jaiyi County magistrate from 2001 to 2009 with Chang being a Jaiyi County MP during that period.  Chang then became  Jaiyi County magistrate in 2009 and is due to step down in 2018 while Chen became a MP in 2009 taking over Chang's position.  Chen in 2008 made the smart move of being the first to jump on the Tsai bandwagon.  As Chen's power grew over time conflict arose between Chen and Chang for the domination of the Jiayi County DPP.

Both Chen and Chang have separate candidates in mind for the DPP candidate for Jiayi County Magistrate in 2018.  As a result their cold war became a hot war.  The DPP tried to get them to reconcile and even arranged for both to appear at public meetings and rallies to try to put up a front of unity to no avail.  At a recent such rally a few days ago after Chen and Chang had a fairly public spat in a DPP high command meeting, Chen, at least according to him, tried to hug Chang in a sign of unity.



Chang claims that Chen whispered sexually explicitly language in her ear, something Chen denies, while putting his hands around her which made her very unconformable. After a couple of days of criticizing Chen publicly  and Chen's wife coming out to apologize for her husband's not being sensitive to Chang's gender, Chang appeared this morning at ta police station in Jaiyi to file changes of sexual harassment on Chen.  She told the shocked police chief who is her subordinate that "I am not here as County magistrate but as a victim.  I am doing this on behalf of all women that has been sexually harassed but not willing to take it to the police.  They all should."  

So now we have the farce of the Jaiyi County magistrate filling charges of sexual harassment against the Jaiyi MP even though both are from the same party.  This is going to be fun.  If it goes on like this the KMT will have a shot of retaking Jaiyi County in 2018.
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« Reply #146 on: September 22, 2017, 02:14:42 pm »



At this stage, despite KMT really getting nowhere to being seen as a real viable alternative to DPP for 2020 the Pan-Blues and Pan-Greens are now at parity for the first time since early 2014.

After the 2008 KMT landslide it took until early 2013 to get to Pan-Blue/Pan-Green parity.  It look the DPP around 1.5 years to lose what it took 5 years for the KMT to lose.

Of course this was not done due to rise in KMT support but more in collapse in DPP support.
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« Reply #147 on: September 22, 2017, 02:29:09 pm »

The soap opera of 嘉義縣 (Jaiyi County) continues.  After DPP County Magistrate 張花冠 (Helen Chang) filed sexual harassment charges against her fellow DPP MP 陳明文 (Chen Ming-wen).   Chang went on TV to attack Chen's wife 廖素惠 (Liao Su-Hui)



Saying that Laio's defense and apologies of her husband set a very poor precedent on gender equity where her husband is not a "real man" and face up to his crimes and instead sends his wife to take the blame.

Of course Liao most likely saved  Chang's candidacy back in 2009 when  Chang was running against KMT's Huang faction leader 翁重鈞(Wong Chung-chun) in a neck-to-neck race for County Magistrate and the night before the election Liao joined her husband Chen who was current County Magistrate and also the campaign manager of Chang in an election rally and knelled to beg for votes for Chang and most likely won Chang her election.

Liao and Chang with DPP Chairperson Tsai (now ROC Prez) in 2009



Same rally has Liao kneeling on live TV begging for votes for Chang


Of course that was when Chen and Chang were close political allies.  

Liao in response referred to Chang as a vile women and that she always knew of Chang's true nature and held back on telling the truth about Chang because she wanted to support women in politics.  Liao said that Chang has very little respect of housewives her Liao and is an agent against true gender equity with her misandry.  She said she will be exposing Chang over time on Chang true nature with the truth about Chang.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2017, 02:33:24 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #148 on: December 20, 2017, 07:50:38 pm »

Tsai's approval ratings had a bump by putting in Lai as PM.  Lai's tenure has been disappointing so far especially with labor law reform and now Tsai's approval rating is going down again to below 30%.

« Last Edit: December 22, 2017, 10:51:15 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #149 on: January 03, 2018, 11:49:55 am »

TPOF which is actually a pro-Green polling outfit did now has PRC head Xi out polling Tsai in terms of approval rating.  Both out-polls Ma when he stepped down in May 2016.



Approval index

Tsai Dec 2017  46.94
Ma  May 2016  41.64
Xi   Dec 2017   51.52
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