Taiwanese election, Jan 2016

[jaichind]

NPP did very well in the district races winning 3 seats.  Early results of the party list votes seems to indicate the the NPP did not do as well as expected.  It will clear the 5% threshold of course, but there was talk that NPP could get 15% of the party list vote.  While results are not clear NPP will come nowhere close to that and might even finish behind PFP in party list.

[jaichind]

District seats are pretty clear now.  KMT 24 DPP 50 NPB 1 NPP 3 Pro-DPP independent 1.  Only possible change is the KMT might beat out the Pro-DPP independent as the gap is tiny.  I assume the Party list vote would be something like KMT 10 DPP 16 PFP 3 NPP 3.  NP might make it in. We will see.

[jaichind]

While this loss was massive from the Pan-Blues.  I take comfort that this did not really represent some large partisan realignment, although there is a potential of that if the DPP regime is successful in contrast to the disastrous second KMT term of 2012-2016.  Assuming that DPP wins 6.5 million votes in the Presidential contest (it might be a bit higher than that as numbers from different media sources are all over the place), that is still some amount back behind 6.9 million votes that KMT's Ma got in 2012 when he got 51.6% of the vote.  

[jaichind]

Count so far from difference sources are

KMT             DPP          PFP
30.50%   56.83%   12.67%   Official
31.11%   55.96%   12.92%   KMT count
29.52%   58.22%   12.26%   Pro-KMT Media TVBS
29.40%   58.88%   11.72%   Pro-DPP media San Li
29.68%   58.42%   11.90%   Pro-KMT Media China Times
29.21%   58.66%   12.13%   Pro-KMT Media China Television

Official count is behind as they are not from stringers.

[jaichind]

  KMT          DPP            PFP
30.71%   56.56%   12.73%   Official
31.10%   55.99%   12.91%   KMT count
29.84%   57.77%   12.39%   Pro-KMT Media TVBS
29.22%   58.68%   12.09%   Pro-DPP media San Li
29.60%   58.26%   12.14%   Pro-KMT Media China Times
29.60%   58.10%   12.29%   Pro-KMT Media China TV

Other than Official Count and KMT count the numbers pretty much stopped from the Media outfits.  ROC media tends to "make up" numbers base on their guess on what the count is like to get more people to watch their channels.  Since the early count showed a massive DPP Tsai victory their "made up" numbers tend to favor Tsai.  Now the Official numbers are coming in and their guesses overestimated Tsai by a couple of percentage points now they have to slowly roll it back.  In a very close election this causes massive problems like in 2004.  Here it makes no difference.  DPP's Tsai won by a massive margin one way or another.

[jaichind]

Tsai won every County and City except for Deep Blue Hualian County and Taidong County where ironically the DPP won the Legislative seats.   This can be explained by the that the the Aborigine vote which high in those two counties votes in the Prez race but not the Legislative race.  They vote in the special Aborigine multi-member seats.  Although in other Deep blue counties like Hsichu and Maioli as well as Keelong City the Pan-Blue vote did beat DPP.   Pan-Blues lost Nanto County even as the KMT won both Legislative seats there.  

[jaichind]

  KMT         DPP           PFP
30.78%   56.46%   12.76%   Official
31.05%   56.04%   12.90%   KMT count
29.84%   57.77%   12.39%   Pro-KMT Media TVBS
29.22%   58.68%   12.09%   Pro-DPP media San Li
29.60%   58.26%   12.14%   Pro-KMT Media China Times
29.60%   58.10%   12.29%   Pro-KMT Media China TV

Now that the total vote count in the Official results are pretty close the the Media "counts" we can be pretty sure that the Official numbers are the most accurate now.   If so DPP's Tsai might end up winning only around 6.4 million votes only slightly more than her 6.1 million votes in 2012.  

[jaichind]

Latest count

DPP        56.4%  6.4 million votes
KMT       30.8%
PFP        12.8%

[jaichind]

Latest count

DPP        56.3%  6.5 million votes
KMT       30.9%
PFP        12.8%

[jaichind]

Latest count

DPP        56.2%  6.66 million votes
KMT       31.0%
PFP        12.8%

[jaichind]

It seems DPP's Tsai won Taipei City with over 50% of the vote there.   Impressive.  Shows the extent how the Deep Blue base mostly sat out this election.

[jaichind]

Latest count

DPP        56.2%  6.7 million votes
KMT       31.0%
PFP        12.8%

[jaichind]

Tsai's vote inching up.  Most likely still will not reach what KMT's Ma got in 2012 of 6.9 million votes. 

[jaichind]

Turnout was most likely around 67%.  If I was told ahead of time that the turnout was around 67% then I would say that DPP's Tsai would be around 55% which is about what we are seeing.  I was expecting a turnout of around 72%-73%.  The entire 周子瑜 (Chou Tzu-yu) fiasco, which I did not get to write about but will, right before the election most likely pushed up the DPP turnout.

[jaichind]

Latest count

DPP        56.2%  6.8 million votes
KMT       31.0%
PFP        12.8%

[jaichind]

Party list vote so far is

DPP       44.1%     18 seats
KMT       26.9%     11 seats
PFP         6.5%        3 seats
NPP         6.1%       2 seats
NP          4.2%
SDP        2.5%
TSU        2.5%
FHL        1.7%
MKT       1.6%

If somehow NP go over 5% these results will be quite good for Pan-Blue camp under the circumstances.

[jaichind]

Latest count

DPP        56.16%  6.86 million votes
KMT       31.01%
PFP        12.82%

This is pretty much final.  Perhaps a few thousand votes here or there.

[jaichind]

The party list vote lines up pretty well with Prez vote

Pan-Green
DPP               44.1
NPP                6.1
Green-SDP      2.5
TSU                2.5
TP                  0.6
LTP                0.4
TIP                 0.2
LCA               0.1
------------------------
                   56.6

Pan-Blue

KMT             26.9
PFP               6.5
NP                4.1
FHL              1.7
MKT             1.6
MTU             0.7
NPB             0.6
CUL             0.4
HIA              0.4
PDA             0.3
------------------------
                  43.4

Which matches 56.1 to 43.9 for Green-Blue Balance in Prez race which actually means a tiny part of the Pan-Green vote went to PFP's Sung.

[jaichind]

Latest count

DPP        56.14%  6.88 million votes
KMT       31.03%
PFP        12.83%

[jaichind]

Back in 2004 when DPP's Chen won a close re-election with 50.1% of the vote he managed 6.47 million votes which feels a lot like Tsai's 6.9 million votes today.  It is the Pan-Blue vote which was 6.44 million in 2004, 7.6 million in 2008, 7.26 million in 2012, and now 5.38 million in 2016 which is a massive drop.

[jaichind]

Latest count

DPP        56.13%  6.89 million votes
KMT       31.04%
PFP        12.83%

[jaichind]

Legislature will be

                 District     Aborigine      Party List   

DPP              49             1                   18                68
NPP               3                                     2                  5
KMT rebel      1                                                         1
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pan-Green                                                              74


KMT             20             4                   11                35
PFP                                                      3                  3
NPB                              1                                         1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pan-Blue                                                                 39

The KMT rebel who was elected with DPP support might end up back with KMT.  We will see.                     

[jaichind]

Latest count

DPP        56.12%  6.89 million votes
KMT       31.04%
PFP        12.84%

[jaichind]

Congrats to DPP and Tsai.  It is quite an accomplishment for a women to become a leader when she is NOT the daughter or wife of another prominent male leader, especially in Asia.

[jaichind]

One thing that is interesting about this result is the return of the "689 Conspiracy."   

Back in 2012 it was Ma vs Tsai and the consensus was that the race was neck-to-neck.  A day before the election several political boards, especially on Pan-Green political boards, had someone posting a non-nonsensical post over and over again which pretty much says "Remember 689.  This election result has been planned ahead of time.  You will know after the election.  Remember 689."  Then Ma won by a significant margin which surprised many, especially pan-Green voters and he won with 6.89 million votes.  The Pan-Green internet board was abuzz for weeks about that post before the election as proof of KMT rigging of the election.  Now in 2016 DPP's Tsai wins with.... 6.89 million votes.