Taiwanese election, Jan 2016

[jaichind]

I am too depressed to write about this election.  I might start writing something in a month or so when the election gets closer.  As my views on the background on the infamous Lee Teng-Hui one can see the end of my posts on

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=193763.0

Of course back in the 1980s Lee was in theory for unification while I was pro-independence.  Now I am the radical far right Chinese nationalist determined to back Chinese reunification while Lee is pretty much on the pro-independence fringe. 

[jaichind]

I guess I do have to write something about this as depressing as it is.  At this stage DPP will sweep the victory with ease with the pan-Blue vote split and a swing toward the pan-Green camp.  What did the KMT in are

a) The obvious anti-incumbency that sinks in after 8 years in power
b) While the Ma regime has been more corruption free than the previous DPP Chen regime his government had its share of scandals which is at odds with the ultra clean image Ma had coming into power
c) While the strategy of economic integration with the Mainland did bring success in headline economic numbers the benefits has been skewed toward the top of the income scale.  What was the killer for the KMT is that coastal Mainland China has moved upstream in the economic chain much faster than expected and has eaten into the economic base of the Taiwan Province middle class in Northern Taiwan Province which is the base of the KMT voting bloc.  This fact is the basis of the 2014 Sunflower movement.
d) The worst of all is the endless KMT civil war between President Ma and KMT speaker of the House Wang.  Now both will go down together.

Chu running instead Hung is more about saving KMT seats in the congressional campaign than winning.  Sung running at a certain level helps the KMT in the sense it could draw away Pan-Blue anti-KMT votes that would have gone to Tsai in a straight KMT-DPP race.  

Tsai is running a middle-of-the-road campaign on the unification-independence issue to avoid being beating down just like in 2012 when Ma turned the election into a Blue-Green unification-independence showdown.  Tsai is running on "status-quo" on the Mainland China issue leaving it to voters imagination what status quo means.  

As a radical unificationist I am a lot more calm about DPP coming into power in 2016 than in 2000.  At this stage the PRC military lead over the ROC as well as the huge economic integration between Mainland China and Taiwan is such so that there is no way any DPP regime would risk anything even close to declaring Independence.  The main difference a DPP regime would make would be the nature and pace of further economic integration with the Mainland.

I think at this stage the election results would be something like

Tsai     51
Chu     34
Song   15

In Legislature it would be something like

Cities directly under Central Government
 Taipei City                  KMT 6 PFP 1 DPP 1
 New Taipei City          KMT 5 DPP 7
 Taoyuan City             KMT 5 DPP 1
 TaiChung City            KMT 3 DPP 5
 Tainan City                DPP 5
 Kaoshiung  City          DPP 9

Taiwan Province
 Keelong City              KMT 1
 Yilan County              DPP 1
 Hsinchu City              KMT 1
 Hsinchu County         KMT 1
 Maioli County             KMT 2
 Changhwa County     KMT 2 DPP 2
 Naotou County          KMT 2
 Yunling County          DPP 2
 Jaiyi City                    DPP 1
 Jaiyi County               DPP 2
 Pingdong County        DPP 3
 Hualiang County        KMT 1
 Taidong County         KMT 1
 Penghu County         DPP 1

Fuijan Province
 JinMen County          NP 1
 Lianjiang County       KMT 1
 
Aborigine seats           KMT 4 DPP 1 NPB 1

Party list                    KMT 11 DPP 14 PFP 3 NPP 4 NP 2

Which gives us

Pan-Blue     54
 KMT  46
 PFP    4
 NP      3
 NPB    1

Pan-Green  59
 DPP   55
 NPP     4

Which gives the Pan-Greens a narrow majority.

[jaichind]

poll for the proportional section of the Yuan:

DPP 27%
KMT 23%
New Power 6% (the new leftish party which is strongly calling for democratic reform, like eliminating two of the five (!!!) branches of government and MMP. Its leader is the Amnesty Chairman/metal singer Huang Kuo-chang, who is associated strongly with the student-led Sunflower movement of 2014.

People First 5% (James Soong's outfit, and KMT ally. Soong is a fairly savvy politician being one of the first pan-Bluers to make outreach into Taiwanese speaking voters. His party itself (essentially written off a few years ago) is jumping ship, eschewing the KMT's domestic agenda (one of its candidates in Taipei has actually won the DPP's backing.)

Green - SDP 3% (Green party founded in the 90's in alliance with new lefty party)

Taiwan Solidarity Union 2% (as Hash said "DPP on steroids")

Other parties running include Tree Party, an anti-sprawl splinter of the Green Party; MCFAP (pan Blue, aimed at "soldiers’, civil servants’, and teachers’ dignity" ; the Unionist Party, a unification party led by the gangster Chang An-le ("White Wolf"); Taiwan Independence Party (DPP on even more steroids); New Party, a pan-Blue  old anti-Lee splinter that is now a misnomer and Minkuotang, a conservative pan-Blue party providing Soong's VP, has been accused of being a machine for the Chan Buddhist hierarchy at best, and being a creepy cult that preys upon college kids at worst.

Here's a predictions that seems credible (keep in mind I speak neither Taiwanese nor Mandarin, so I go via Google Translate or Anglophone Taiwanese journalists/bloggers):

http://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/forecasting-the-2016-taiwan-legislative-elections

essentially, the DPP have managed to ally well with minor parties, like the SDP and New Power, while the KMT have been shambolic. For a hyper-rich party of power, this is a really appalling campaign no matter what Obama does to save the status quo. I'm kind of surprised that the media aren't covering this election more tbh.

Some interesting facts, some personal.

1) NPP leader 黃國昌 (Huang Kuo-chang) who is running on the anti-Mainland China line to capture the radical independence vote and squeezing out pro-independence TSU in the meantime was recently exposed to have
  a) A father-in-law that has a very large Mainland China investment operation which does not jive with Huang's attacks on "traitors" that invests on the Mainland
  b) Published a book back in 2008 with the help of Beijing University where Taiwan was referred to as a "region" which is fine by me but is an anathema to independence activists
Overall Huang is serving is role to help Tsai.  Tsai needs to move the the middle as there is no pro-Independence majority so Huang moves in to pick up the slack at the congressional level and back Tsai in the election  

2) Green Party-SDP is interesting at a personal level. Both the original founder of the pro-independence Taiwan Green Party 高成炎 (Wang Kao-Yan) (a professor now retired from politics) and as the current leader of SDP 范雲 (Fang Yun) (who was a student activist back in the late 1980s) are personal friends of the pro-independence branch of my family.  The pro-independence branch of my family is a major financial supporter of both of them and I am sure they are helping out this time as well even as they will vote DPP.  My cousin is actually pretty close to 范雲 and I meet her several times on my various trips to Taiwan Province.  Of course as a radical Chinese nationalist and unification supporter I would not touch these guys politically with a ten foot pole.  At a personal level I found both of them very interesting people and I enjoy their company.

高成炎


范雲

  

[jaichind]

Isn't it fun that Taiwanese politics can bring hardcore communists and libertarian poll tax supporters under the same umbrella?

I really find Soong's choice of running mate peculiar. I mean better than Chu's choice lol, but still/

Why is that surprising?  Over the 1990s the extreme Chinese nationalist right on Taiwan Province and HK has mostly become pro-CCP even as they are still very negative on the CCP program.  The proto-NP on Taiwan Province was the first to start this process in 1992.  I came out of the closet in 1993 when I went to college and became openly pro-CCP even though I started to have pro-CCP thoughts as early as 1989.  I shocked my relatives when I came out with my position.  They said "I thought you hated the CCP."  I said in many ways I am still very negative toward the CCP but I objection to Taiwan Independence on Taiwan Province and the social democratic opposition on Mainland China are even greater.  It is not just Taiwan Independence which I cannot stand (even as I was for Taiwan Independence in the 1980s) I cannot risk the result of the overthrow of the hated CCP on Mainland China just to be replace by a welfare state.  It has to be cutthroat capitalism all the way and if that means having the CCP in charge to get it so be it.

[jaichind]

Speaking of running mates. Tsai's running mate 陳建仁 (Chen Chien-jen) is interesting.  He is a political independent and a well respected academic who got along well with the DPP regime of 2000-2008.  Chen's father 陳新安 (Chen Sing-An) was the founder of the pro-KMT White Faction in Kaoshiung and was a KMT County magistrate of Kaoshiung County in the 1950s.  In the 1950s-1990s period Kaoshiung politics was dominated the pro-KMT White Faction, pro-KMT Red Faction, and anti-KMT Black faction which later became the Kaoshiung branch of DPP.   KMT Speaker of the House Wang and rival to President Ma is also from the Kaoshiung White faction.  Chen Sing-An actually got along well with Black Faction founder 余登發 (Yu Deng-Fa) despite the fact that the Black faction was anti-KMT.  Yu, ironically, was a very strong supporter of Chinese unification despite being anti-KMT and remained so until his death in 1989 even as he joined the DPP.  Yu's children and grandchildren are now big cheese in the Kaoshiung DPP.  For Chen Chien-jen this cross partisan friendship of his father paved the way for him to get along well with the DPP government even as a academic that worked with the government and him being picked as Tsai's running mate.

[jaichind]

I think the crux of the issue is that the bases of the parties really, really, really want either unification or independence, but for most of the population, it's a lesser concern and neither extreme (i.e. being subsumed under Beijing's wing/starting WW3) really is that appetising for your average Taiwan resident.  So a DPP government will throw a bit of red meat to their base (via symbolic name changes etc.) but don't want to alienate the majority of the population by sincerely carrying through their desire (unless they become radicalised by Beijing doing something especially dumb).

jaichind, who would you vote for? Soong? MKT? New Party? KMT?

You mostly got it right.  Even the "base" that is for unification or Independence are often for tactical financial reasons.  It is often about which sector/business would benefit from economic integration with Mainland China.  Ironically the rate of economic development on Mainland China in the last decade has surpassed most projections and now pit places like Fujian Province and Zhejiang Province in direct economic competition with all but the most advanced sectors on Taiwan Province which in turn has weakened "unificationist" sentiment.    I am a purist on this issue but I do recognize I am in a very small minority. 

As who I would vote for I am mostly for NP but back KMT for tactical reasons.  My family's positions are quite wide and range from NP to TSU/NPP (one of my uncles was almost drafted as a TSU candidate in local elections back in 2009) but most vote tactically for KMT or DPP.   Between Chu and Hung obviously I prefer the pro-unificationist Hung.  Neither would win anyway so in that sense I rather have Hung run.  But I totally get that Chu would save a few KMT seats in places like New Taipei City, Taoyuan City and Taichung City in the Congressional races. 

[jaichind]

Oh not surprising, just amusing.

I found it pretty funny as well.  One of the best ones back in the late 1990s was the Mainland China CCP controlled Chinese Communist Youth League formed fraternal relations with the KMT created far right Chinese Anti-Communist National Salvation Youth League on the basis of Chinese nationalism.  I also find on my trips to Mainland China, that I, a rabid Far Right Old KMT (like KMT of the 1950s and not the KMT of the 1970s) supporter found myself as the main defender of the CCP in various political discussions  over meals with business partners of my family's investments on Mainland China.  And we are talking me defending the CCP against the attacks by people who were CCP members with membership of sometimes over 40 years.

[jaichind]

Former DPP MP 沈富雄 (Sheng Fu-Shiung) and now political commentator (he is more pro KMT these days despite his DPP background) came out with his predictions.  He was pretty accurate back in 2008 and 2012 (even though I was a bit more accurate in both elections.)  He predicts that Tsai will win by 2.5 million votes.  Assuming turnout around 75% that would translate into a lead over Chu by around 18%.  And assuming that Sung wins around 15% of the vote that would mean it will be

Tsai   51.5
Chu   33.5
Sung  15

Whereas my prediction is

Tsai   51
Chu   34
Sung  15



Back in 2012 Sheng predicted

Ma     52
Tsai   44
Sung 4

whereas I predicted

Ma   51
Tsai  45
Sung  4

With the result being

Ma   51.6
Tsai 45.6
Sung  2.8



In 2008 Sheng predicted

Ma     59.5
Hsieh  40.5

whereas I predicted

Ma      59
Hsieh  41

and the real results being

Ma     58.4
Hsieh 41.6


Sheng also predicts that DPP will capture a majority in the legislature on its own which I also predict as well but very narrowly.   Sheng predicts it will take the KMT at least two election cycles to come back into power.  Sheng also feels that with Sung retirement the PFP will die off and at the same time NPP will displace TSU as the pro-independence party.  

[jaichind]

With 10 days before the elections all publishing of polls are now banned.  The last poll before the ban the pro-KMT TVBS station which has a long track record of doing polls came out with

Tsai    43
Chu    25
Song   15

based on which it projects

Tsai    53
Chu    31
Song   16




Back in 2012 10 days before the election blackout TVBS had

Ma   41
Tsai  35
Song  7

based on which it projected

Ma   48
Tsai  45
Song  7


On the day before the 2012 election TVBS had (although it was only able to publish after voting ended)

Ma   43
Tsai  35
Song  5

based on which it projected

Ma   49
Tsai  46
Song  5


With the final result being

Ma   51.6
Tsai 45.6
Sung  2.8




Back in 2008 10 days before the election TVBS had

Ma      54
Hsieh  29

based on which it projected

Ma      60
Hsieh  40


On the day before the 2008 election TVBS had (although it was only able to publish after voting ended)

Ma      51
Hsieh  29

based on which it projected

Ma      58
Hsieh  42


and the real results being

Ma     58.4
Hsieh 41.6



What TVBS does in its projections based on the poll  is try to eliminate its pro-KMT house effects as well as the fact that pan-Greens tend not voice their support for their preferred candidate when polled.  It is doing the same here as well.  One other factor I think TVBS is not taking into account is that in almost all elections up until 2016 the pan-Blues were always ahead in (even in 2000 and 2004 when the DPP actually won, the DPP were behind in the polls up until the the blackout period) so the pan-Green under-polling has also to do with not wanting to come out for the losing side.  This time it is clear DPP is going to win so pan-Green voters should have less inhibition from expressing their support for Tsai.    So I think the DPP-KMT-PFP 10-6-1 split in undecided is not logical.  It should be more like 8-8-1 which would give it

Tsai  51
Chu  33
Song 16

which would be very similar to my prediction of

Tsai   51
Chu   34
Sung  15

[jaichind]

TISR does come out with monthly party/bloc identification numbers.



The chart on the right are the identification numbers for pan-Blues vs Pan-Greens.  After DPP's very narrow and controversial re-election in 2004 which led to massive pan-Blue protests which in turn turned off independents led to pan-Blues and Pan-Greens are near parity by mid 2004 where as historically pan-Blues usually have a lead over pan-Greens by 10%. 

In the aftermath of the disastrous second term for DPP's Chen of 2004-2008, the gap pan-Blue gap grew to over 20% in the 2006-2009 period.   Of course once KMT's Ma came into office anti-incumbency began to wear on the pan-Blues and by the 2012 elections the gap was back down to around 10%.  The the KMT's Ma had their own disastrous second term which led to a Pan-Green lead over Pan-Blues by around 5%.  Note the resiliency of the Pan-Blues that even in a disastrous second KMT term it still managed to be behind by only 5%.   

[jaichind]

TISR also have overall approval indices for the KMT (Blue), DPP (Green) and recently added CCP (Red)



Starting around 2009 KMT and DPP were mostly tied with the DPP having the upper hand right after the 2012 elections.  All things equal CCP approval is not that bad.  The approval rating for CCP today is about the approval rating for KMT today and DPP back in 2006-2008

[jaichind]

The race for 新竹縣 (Hsinchu County) Legislative seat is quite interesting.  It is really KMT vs KMT vs KMT or more like DPP running as KMT candidate vs KMT vs KMT.  

Hsinchu County has always been dominated by KMT with their base in the dominate Hakkas of this fairly wealthy, for a rural county, area.  Most political conflict over the last couple of decades revolve around the rivalries of two KMT political power brokers namely 鄭永金 (Cheng Yung-Jin) and 邱鏡淳 (Chiu Ching-chun).

In the 1997 Hsinchu County county magistrate elections the KMT nominated Cheng ( 鄭永金) which provoked Chiu (邱鏡淳) to run as an independent and was expelled from the KMT.  In an anti-KMT year, the DPP candidate 林光華 (Lin Guan-Hua) won in a close 3 way race.  

After that the KMT managed to get Cheng (鄭永金) and Chiu (邱鏡淳) reconciled and both ran as KMT candidates in the 1998 Legislative election region with the KMT winning 2 out of 3 seats in this 3- seat election region as both won and became MPs.  

In 2001 the KMT worked out a deal where Cheng  (鄭永金) would run as the KMT candidate for County magistrate while Chiu  (邱鏡淳) will run for re-election as MP with an understanding that when 2005 comes around Cheng ( (鄭永金)) will yield for Chiu ((邱鏡淳)) to run.  Both won their respective seats with Cheng  (鄭永金) beating DPP incumbent Lin (林光華) in the county magistrate seat and Chiu (邱鏡淳) winning re-election as MP as a winner out of the 3- seat district.

In 2004 Chiu (邱鏡淳) ran for re-election in the Legislative elections winning in the 3- seats district while the DPP candidate 林為洲 (Lin Yo-Chiu) also won one for the DPP.  

In 2005 Cheng  (鄭永金) broke his promise to not run for re-election and was re-nominated by the KMT beating  Lin (林光華)  again for County Magistrate with the KMT convincing Chiu (邱鏡淳) not to break with the party over this promising him the renominate him in 2008 for the Legislative elections where all districts are moving to FPTP and away from multi member districts as well as nominate him for County Magistrate in 2009 when the Cheng  (鄭永金) second term ends.

By 2008 Lin (林為洲) has broken with DPP and did not seek to run in the Legislative elections and Chiu (邱鏡淳) pretty much was going to run with no real opposition until a pro-KMT independent 徐欣瑩 (Hsu Hsin-ying) decided to challenge the duopoly of  Cheng  (鄭永金) and Chiu (邱鏡淳) in Hsinchu County KMT politics.  2008 was a very bad year for the DPP which decided to back Hsu (徐欣瑩) since it had no chance on its own.  In theory Hsu (徐欣瑩) was aligned with the Cheng  (鄭永金) faction so she was hoping to win by getting implicit support from DPP and  Cheng (鄭永金) faction.   Chiu (邱鏡淳) won fairly easily even though the Cheng  (鄭永金) wing of the KMT was lackluster in their support of the Chiu (邱鏡淳) campaign since it was such as strong KMT year.

In 2009 as promised the KMT nominated Chiu (邱鏡淳) for County Magistrate but Cheng (鄭永金) had his right hand women 張碧琴 (Chang Bi-Chin) run as an independent against Chiu (邱鏡淳) and the DPP's 彭紹瑾 (Peng Tsao-Jin).  Cheng (鄭永金) was expelled from the KMT as a result.   Chiu (邱鏡淳) actually recruited former DPP MP Lin (林為洲) to join the KMT and back his campaign.  Chiu (邱鏡淳) managed to win in a close 3 way race.  

In 2010 a by-election took place for the Legislative seat since Chiu (邱鏡淳) vacated his seat as MP to take over as County Magistrate.   The Cheng (鄭永金) faction of the KMT tacticaly backed Peng (彭紹瑾) who  ran on the DPP ticket and defeated the KMT candidate in a low turnout election.  This provoked  Chiu (邱鏡淳) and the KMT making mends with Cheng (鄭永金)  who rejoined the KMT in 2011.  The KMT also managed to get Hsu (徐欣瑩) to re-join the KMT promising her that the KMT will nominate her in 2012 for the Legislative seat.

In 2012 as expected Hsu (徐欣瑩) ran as the KMT candidate and with backing from both Chiu (邱鏡淳) and Cheng (鄭永金) easily won her with the largest number of votes of any Legislative winner that year.

For the 2014 County Magistrate elections Cheng (鄭永金) wanted to be nominated by the KMT but the KMT went with the incumbent Chiu (邱鏡淳).  Cheng (鄭永金) then ran as an independent which led him to be expelled from the KMT and went over to back the DPP at the national level to get DPP support to run against Chiu (邱鏡淳).  Chiu (邱鏡淳) won in a narrow race even as Chang (張碧琴) stayed in the KMT and tried to stay neutral.

After the disastrous 2014 elections for the KMT, Hsu (徐欣瑩) broke from the KMT and formed the KMT splinter MKT and was going to run for re-election for her seat against the formal KMT candidate. Then  Hsu (徐欣瑩) was picked by PFP's Sung to on his ticket as Vice Presidential candidate so MKT nominated 邱靖雅 (Chiu Ching-Ya) who was a pro-KMT independent on the County Assembly but joined MKT when it was formed breaking from the KMT.  The KMT which in Hsinchu County is now run by Chiu (邱鏡淳) now that Cheng (鄭永金) is expelled from the KMT again and having gone over to be pro-DPP decided to nominate ex-DPP MP Lin(林為洲) as its candidate given the close inter-personal relationship between Chiu (邱鏡淳) and Lin(林為洲).   Cheng (鄭永金) decided to run as well as with DPP support.

So the election is  Lin (林為洲) (former DPP MP but now on the KMT ticket) vs  Cheng (鄭永金) (former KMT MP and County Magistrate but with DPP support) vs Chiu (邱靖雅) (ex-KMT member but now on the KMT splinter MKT ticket) which makes it KMT vs KMT vs KMT.

It is hard to say who has the upper hand.  Clearly with  Hsu (徐欣瑩) out of the race MKT's chances is much lower.  If this was an by-election then for sure  Cheng (鄭永金) who has the stronger personal political network should win.  But in a general election the KMT party label, even in a very bad year for the KMT, should still still give Lin (林為洲) a small edge especially now Cheng (鄭永金) is now in the DPP camp so the anti-DPP vote will migrate toward Lin (林為洲) especially when Chiu (邱靖雅) has a low chance of winning.

[jaichind]

30% of Taiwanese approve of the CCP? Out of curiosity, are these some kind of hardcore left-wingers, right-wingers dreaming of becoming a HK-style SAR, or some kind of third mixture?

Hmm. Maybe the CCP should run candidates in Taiwan. Clearly they'd have some support! The constitutional implications of that would of course be prohibitive, though.

e: Also, what role, if any, does the military play in all this?

Well, I am part of that 30%+  I would say about 10% out of that 30% are hardcore Chinese nationalists like myself.  We approve of the CCP in the sense that we approve of that it is "A Party of Chinese nationalism" even if it is not "The Party of Chinese nationalism" which many including myself hark to the KMT of the 1950s-1960s as that party.  

The rest most likely approve of CCP for economic reasons.  Understand that while the economic benefits to Taiwan Province from economic integration with the Mainland has been disappointing to the average middle income Joe, that is more a function of distribution of benefits versus no benefits.  What really took place was that Provinces like Fujian Guangdong Zheijiang and Jiangsu these last 10 years has raced up the economic value chain must faster than expected and is threatening directly all major economic sectors of Taiwan Province except for the most advanced ones.  So people at the top of the economic ladder on Taiwan Province for sure benefited as did certain tourist, retail and agriculture sectors.  The real loses are small to medium  scale medium tech industrial sectors which are based in Southern Taiwan Province which are now solidly for DPP given how they been hollowed out economically by PRC.  The Northern middle class working in services that is the KMT based gained a bit but lost out a lot due to the surge of property prices in Northern Taiwan from Mainland investors as well as the top tier bidding up hosing prices.  Of course the winners does not form anywhere near the majority so this time around DPP will win.

There is not real Old Left on Taiwan Province anymore.  Many parties might be Liberal or Progressive but not Left.  If politics of an ecosystem becomes of politics of identity like on ROC (the Chinese vs Taiwanese identity) then political discourse always shift to the Right.   

[jaichind]

If politics of an ecosystem becomes of politics of identity like on ROC (the Chinese vs Taiwanese identity) then political discourse always shift to the Right.   

Not sure what you mean by this. Do you mean identity politics in general? Because that's obviously incorrect for identity politics in other places.

My view is that all tings equal when the political discourse of an political entity becomes polarized around identity (versus class) then politics tends to shift more to the Right.  It might be populist Right but Right never-the-less.

[jaichind]

Don't agree at all. What about the post-WWII anti-colonization struggles?

Well, when I talk about politics of identify it is more about how an entire group should identify itself and not making a separate identify due to some ethnic differences.  So anti-colonial struggles I would not count as politic of identify.  The British never claimed that Indians were British only that the British should rule over India.  On Taiwan Province, those for Taiwan Independence and the Taiwanese identify view all people on Taiwan Province as Taiwanese not just those that identify with Taiwanese.  The reveres is true for those with pro-unification Chinese identify.  Another example is Ukraine, Ukrainian nationalists in Western Ukraine view all people that live in Ukraine as Ukrainian and not just those in the West.  Just like the Pan-Russian Pan-Slavic identity also identifies Western Ukrainians as part of that identify.  In India the Hindu nationalists view Dalits as part of the Hindu identify even as the Dalit movement tries to carve out a separate Dalit identity.  So in cases where is is not about some sort racial or ethnic hierarchy but about what paradigm of identify context should be used politics tend to shift to the Right.

[jaichind]

In the Legislature the KMT estimates that it will get 40-53 seats.  DPP estimates that it will get 55-57 seats while PFP estimates that it will get 6-7 seats.  Each estimates has its own tactical goal. 

The KMT wants to scare its core supporters with the threat of a DPP majority by saying that its seat count could be as low as 40 seats.  It is accepted that the race for President is long lost so the KMT is fearful of a low KMT turnout.  But putting an estimates as high as 53 it is trying to tell its core supporters "please turn out because even if Tsai is going to win, you can still keep the DPP from having a majority and perhaps even having the KMT beat out the DPP as the largest party."

The DPP is now scared that its core pro-Taiwan Independence vote, now seeing that Tsai will win for sure, will vote NPP on the Party List vote to get NPP to be a pressure group on the DPP in the Legislature.  By estimating 55-57 DPP is saying to its core supporters "Please vote DPP on the party list vote and not NPP, or else DPP might fall just short of majority and the KMT, PFP, and in fact NPP will blackmail President Tsai agenda.  We are about to make history by having a DPP majority in the Legislature for the first time in history.  Do not mess it up."

PFP is estimating 6-7 seats more to tell its core votes and disaffected KMT votes: "If you are fearful of DPP and want to punish KMT please vote PFP on the party list.  If PFP gets around 7 seats then PFP + KMT +NP  can make sure the DPP agenda is moderated in the Legislature since in such a case there will be no pan-Green majority or a very narrow one."

[jaichind]

Now that it is clear that DPP will be coming back to power with a likely Pan-Green if not DPP legislative majority, the USA is already making noises to make sure the new regime does not rock the boat.

"U.S. reiterates 'one China' policy ahead of Taiwan's elections"
http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201601150010.aspx

The  U.S. State Department  reiterates its position of "One China" and that Taiwan is not a country which is 100% correct.  Taiwan is a Province and region of China of which there is a current dispute on which regime is the legal government of China.

[jaichind]

How badly the KMT gets beat will now be a function of turnout.  There has not been a large fundamental realignment of partisan alignments, so far.  Right now it is more about various parts of the KMT base not turning out of turning out for PFP instead.  Very low or very high turnout tends to help DPP while medium levels of turnout tends to help KMT.  Back in 2000 when there was a bitter 3 way race where DPP's Chen won, turnout was 82% which fell to 80% in 2004 when DPP Chen won in a close but controversial reelection .  In 2008 turnout fell to 76% which was partly about marginal DPP votes not turning out as KMT's Ma won in a landslide. In 2012 turnout was around 75% and Ma won re-election with a smaller but still comfortable majority.   The thinking this time is that turnout will be around 70%.  If it is higher than that the the Pan-Green camp would risk not having their majority. it is lower than that than the Pan-Blues risk a rout not just in the Presidential race but also in the Legislative race where they still are keeping it close.

[jaichind]

A record 18 parties are on the party list ballot.

[jaichind]

Turnout very low at mid 60%.  KMT base did not turn out while DPP base had large turnout.  Many versions of the count but most likely will converge something like DPP 57 KMT 32 PFP 11.  Legislative race looking like something like KMT 34 DPP 68 PFP 3 NPP 6 NPB 1 Pro-DPP independent 1.

[jaichind]

Just to show the effect of turnout.  Tsai for DPP got 6.1 million votes in 2012 for 45.6%.  She will now get 57% (perhaps a bit more) with around 6.6 million votes (this is guesstimate for now).  DPP base turned out a bit better than 2012 plus a small swing.  Rest of it is about pan-Blue base not turning out, including PFP base.

[jaichind]

NPP did very well in the district races winning 3 seats.  Early results of the party list votes seems to indicate the the NPP did not do as well as expected.  It will clear the 5% threshold of course, but there was talk that NPP could get 15% of the party list vote.  While results are not clear NPP will come nowhere close to that and might even finish behind PFP in party list.

[jaichind]

District seats are pretty clear now.  KMT 24 DPP 50 NPB 1 NPP 3 Pro-DPP independent 1.  Only possible change is the KMT might beat out the Pro-DPP independent as the gap is tiny.  I assume the Party list vote would be something like KMT 10 DPP 16 PFP 3 NPP 3.  NP might make it in. We will see.

[jaichind]

While this loss was massive from the Pan-Blues.  I take comfort that this did not really represent some large partisan realignment, although there is a potential of that if the DPP regime is successful in contrast to the disastrous second KMT term of 2012-2016.  Assuming that DPP wins 6.5 million votes in the Presidential contest (it might be a bit higher than that as numbers from different media sources are all over the place), that is still some amount back behind 6.9 million votes that KMT's Ma got in 2012 when he got 51.6% of the vote.  

[jaichind]

Count so far from difference sources are

KMT             DPP          PFP
30.50%   56.83%   12.67%   Official
31.11%   55.96%   12.92%   KMT count
29.52%   58.22%   12.26%   Pro-KMT Media TVBS
29.40%   58.88%   11.72%   Pro-DPP media San Li
29.68%   58.42%   11.90%   Pro-KMT Media China Times
29.21%   58.66%   12.13%   Pro-KMT Media China Television

Official count is behind as they are not from stringers.