Taiwanese election, Jan 2016

[Hydera]

The very curious Lee-Teng Hui who seemed to change his mind about the entire stated purpose of his party midway through his leadership

In what way?

As President, Lee supported the 'Taiwanization' movement which is basically the idea of emphasizing Taiwan as the centre rather than the old KMT view of China as the centre and Taiwan as an appendage, which led to suspicions during his presidency that he was secretly pro-independence, and indeed after leaving the presidency he was expelled from the KMT and he founded/inspired the foundation of the Taiwan Solidarity Union, which is basically the DPP on steroids supporting the declaration of a 'Republic of Taiwan' and a new constitution.

Then again, Lee appears to be a very odd person all around.

Lee probably joined back when the KMT ran Taiwan in a autocratic semi-totalitarian manner until the 80s so he probably joined to get a career in politics and somehow ended in the , maybe it suprised him. But had the DPP or a party of the like been legal beforehand, he probably would be a member of that and not the KMT which he later off.

[Hydera]

Is there any info about who are the 1st and 2nd choices for President amongst Soong voters if he didn't compete?

[Hydera]

Here's something not totally unexpected.

Compare the map of home usage of Hokkein.




And a map with the Soong+Chu votes combined.



And they line up perfectly.



Also i didn't think that Hsinchu had that much Hokkein speakers since i always considered it mostly demographically Hakka. But turns out that its actually majority Hokkein speaking not Hakka.

[Hydera]

One positive thing for the Pan-Blues about DPP control of the Legislature on the long run is that it could plant the seeds for a partial Pan-Blue revival in Southern Rural Counties.  One of the reasons why the Southern Counties drifted to the DPP in the late 1990s was the feeling that the KMT administration over the 1980s and 1990s negelcted the economic development of Southern Taiwan Province, especially rural Southern Taiwan Province.   Support for Taiwan Independence was a proxy for envy of  Northern Taiwan Province economic gains from trade with Mainland China  During the disastrous second term DPP Chen administration of 2004-2008, there were swings away from the Pan-Greens in Southern Counties but it was much lower then one would expect and DPP continues to hold the County Magistrate positions in Southern Counties based on the rural vote.  The main reason for this was that DPP Prez Chen was able to make the argument that he could not implement his agenda for Southern Taiwan Province economic revival due to the Pan-Blue majority in the Legislature and that the Northern Taiwan politician dominated Legislature is out to get Chen, who is from the Southern Tainan.   This argument is not really valid as the economic problems of backward Southern Taiwan counties are more structural in nature.  Now with a DPP majority in the legislature  this argument goes away.   When the Tsia administration is shown up as not being able to turn around the relative economic advantage of Northern Taiwan Province the Pan Green Solid South will begin to drift to the Pan-Blues almost by default.   

The signs are starting to be quite ominous for the Pan-Blue Camp. Lots of young Taiwanese are not going to vote for them. Also the more older mainlanders are deceased due to old age and this makes the Pan-Blue camp have less of a base.

Pending the Pipe Dream of China somehow becoming Democratic within the next ten years which would result in the Pro vs Anti China/Reunification issues becoming sanitized and the politics in Taiwan switching to a generic Centre-Left vs Centre-right Spectrum. The future for the Pan-Blue Camp isnt really bright.