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  LA - Clarus: Vitter losing all runoff scenarios
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Author Topic: LA - Clarus: Vitter losing all runoff scenarios  (Read 4069 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: September 27, 2015, 11:25:21 pm »

Article.

Primary:

Edwards- 24%
Vitter- 24%
Angelle- 15%
Dardenne- 14%

Runoff
Edwards- 45%
Vitter- 41%

Angelle- 40%
Vitter- 35%

Dardenne- 42%
Vitter- 35%
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Flake
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2015, 11:37:46 pm »

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by Clarus Research Group on 2015-09-23

Summary: D: 45%, R: 41%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2015, 11:43:25 pm »

Based on the PPP poll and this poll:


Rating Change - LA-GOV - Strongly Leaning Republican ------> Leaning Republican

Low excitement about the election and the runoff system probably helps republicans. But Edwards's chances of pulling off the upset seem to have increased heavily.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2015, 12:32:07 am »

Another poll showing Vitter in trouble and it's not from PPP. I don't mean to offend anyone, but Vitter could actually lose the general election. Again, don't mean to offend, but that's just my opinion.
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Once & Future Pres. Griff
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2015, 05:51:37 am »

Color me skeptical - I'll believe it when I see it. It's not as if any of Vitter's problems have prevented them from re-electing him and I don't think "muh Jindal dislike" is necessarily going to translate into votes against him.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2015, 06:23:54 am »

Is Vitter seriously going to lose this thing... seriously? I want to think most of the undecideds are Romney voters, though there's also evidence that the undecideds go more for Edwards after the jungle.

Democrats should be celebrating that they have a chance at the Louisiana Governorship. Likely R.
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2015, 06:34:48 am »

I hope they exploit his affair.
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Intell
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2015, 06:43:45 am »

I hope they exploit his affair.

Would that really work?
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2015, 09:34:23 am »

I would like some more polling confirmation but it looks like this race is rapidly moving towards a tossup. Republicans are spending all their time bludgeoning each other, and the current Republican Governor is extremely unpopular and (I assume) becoming even more unpopular as he continues prancing around the country for his hopeless Presidential and ignoring his gubernatorial duties, which weighs down the Republicans in the race, even if they're a different "faction" of the party. It's creating a perfect scenario for the ignored, moderate, and untainted John Bel Edwards to slip right up the middle.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2015, 11:48:59 am »
« Edited: September 28, 2015, 11:58:58 am by TNvolunteer »

Look, LA is not AR or TN. Democrats can still win there. Even Landrieu got 44% despite her terrible campaign.

Low excitement about the election and the runoff system probably helps republicans.

If anything, that helps the Democratic candidate. Southern Blacks turn out at a higher rate than AAs in other parts of the country, whether it's a runoff election or not.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2015, 03:49:23 pm »

Well Bel Edwards didnt turnout to be such a bad candidate afterall.

This race is tilted towards him now.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2015, 03:52:31 pm »

Well Bel Edwards didnt turnout to be such a bad candidate afterall.

This race is tilted towards him now.

No, it still leans R. Edwards's chances have improved, but to consider him the favorite is really out there.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2015, 04:55:11 pm »

It may be rated that way on the Cook or Sabato ratings; but I dont look at those ratings until right before election.

Their ratings arent always right. Just like the WVa gov race; Jupiter like Bel Edwards are exceedingly doing well.
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2015, 06:47:27 pm »

Some crosstabs and thoughts from this poll:

Img


^ Edwards getting 1/3 of the white vote would be huge, if it holds.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2015, 06:55:45 pm »

Some crosstabs and thoughts from this poll:

Img


^ Edwards getting 1/3 of the white vote would be huge, if it holds.

If he can get that and matches the 94% showing Landrieu got among black voters in 2014, he will win.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2015, 09:20:49 pm »

Look, LA is not AR or TN. Democrats can still win there. Even Landrieu got 44% despite her terrible campaign.

Low excitement about the election and the runoff system probably helps republicans.

If anything, that helps the Democratic candidate. Southern Blacks turn out at a higher rate than AAs in other parts of the country, whether it's a runoff election or not.
I don't really see what was so bad about Landrieu's campaign. What else could she have done?
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yeah_93
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2015, 11:42:38 pm »

Look, LA is not AR or TN. Democrats can still win there. Even Landrieu got 44% despite her terrible campaign.

Low excitement about the election and the runoff system probably helps republicans.

If anything, that helps the Democratic candidate. Southern Blacks turn out at a higher rate than AAs in other parts of the country, whether it's a runoff election or not.
I don't really see what was so bad about Landrieu's campaign. What else could she have done?
She was a democrat in a year where southern democrats were wiped out. She should have run as a republican lol
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Once & Future Pres. Griff
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2015, 02:22:18 am »

Look, LA is not AR or TN. Democrats can still win there. Even Landrieu got 44% despite her terrible campaign.

Low excitement about the election and the runoff system probably helps republicans.

If anything, that helps the Democratic candidate. Southern Blacks turn out at a higher rate than AAs in other parts of the country, whether it's a runoff election or not.
I don't really see what was so bad about Landrieu's campaign. What else could she have done?

Not playing the race card might have helped. Oh, and maybe not calling your constituents racist and sexist might have helped as well. And not hiding from Obama too. I could go on and on. Given that campaign, she shouldn't have gotten 40%, much less 44%. The 2014 (and 2012) results were a warning sign for the LA GOP.

Sometimes, I wonder if you live in the same South as I do, especially since you probably live closer to me than any other Atlas user...as if doing/not doing any/all of those things would have made a difference. Southerners are notorious for making up grievances out of thin air - especially if they're racial in nature - and so all she did was prevent the cretins of Louisiana from having to lie about why they weren't going to vote for her.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2015, 02:39:25 am »

Look, LA is not AR or TN. Democrats can still win there. Even Landrieu got 44% despite her terrible campaign.

Low excitement about the election and the runoff system probably helps republicans.

If anything, that helps the Democratic candidate. Southern Blacks turn out at a higher rate than AAs in other parts of the country, whether it's a runoff election or not.
I don't really see what was so bad about Landrieu's campaign. What else could she have done?

Not playing the race card might have helped. Oh, and maybe not calling your constituents racist and sexist might have helped as well. And not hiding from Obama too. I could go on and on. Given that campaign, she shouldn't have gotten 40%, much less 44%. The 2014 (and 2012) results were a warning sign for the LA GOP.

I'll give you that this guy is probably why his margin was a tad underwhelming, that and the GOP majority was already won.

Img
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Miles
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2015, 03:24:14 pm »

Another interesting nugget from this poll:

Best recent Governor:

Edwards - 31%
Foster - 21%
Jindal - 14%
Blanco - 11%
Roemer - 9%
Treen - 9%

Worst recent Governor:

Jindal - 42%
Blanco - 24%
Edwards - 14%
Roemer - 5%
Foster - 4%
Treen - 3%
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2015, 05:36:00 pm »

Edwards, just like Conway are gaining, & the only race that will be bright spot for GOP is reliable MS.
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