It's make or break time for Jeb Bush

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Does anybody believe a Bush withdrawal is a nontrivial possibility within the next month (i.e. if he does not have a very good debate performance on the 28th?) I realize it seems outlandish, but this story seems eerily similar to those about Walker in the weeks before his exit.

If he Walkers it, it's a possibility. But I don't think so...

[Frodo]

Wasn't John McCain doing worse in 2007? 

[mencken]

Wasn't John McCain doing worse in 2007?  

As far as fundraising yes. With poll numbers though, McCain was never below low double digits. Additionally, McCain practically lived in New Hampshire when his campaign was in trouble, the first of many Hail Maries for the McCain campaign (and the only successful one). Bush seems to still be campaigning like a frontrunner despite being in fifth place both nationally and in New Hampshire.

[NeverAgain]

From the article,

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My god the Bush team is delusional. Jeb will never win over the Conservative base no matter how hard you try to push him onto others. I've literally never met a Jeb supporter in real life that was a solid conservative. Go to any Conservative website and read the comment section and find a Jeb supporter. They don't want him.

Jeb Bush is not trying to win over the base, he's "losing the primary to win the general."

That means Jeb is running as an independent, eh?  At least if you take it literally it does.

Jeb Bush is not the most conservative Republican running, but he is not the most moderate one running either. It's just the perception.

I find it incredibly troubling that one has to be a great speaker to become President of the United States. You have to be able to articulate a message and communicate once elected, yes, but not everyone is Ronald Reagan.

Jeb Bush is where he is because people are angry right now, probably more angry than they were under Jimmy Carter. Bush is telling people to be happy and optimistic, and in the end I think they will be, but right now they are angry and the outsiders are tapping into that anger. But Jeb Bush is the anti-Obama in this election; he has a conservative agenda, a conservative record, and he is an honest guy. But people are fed up and don't realize that Bush draws the starkest contrast not just on the stump, but in having an actual record, with the Democrats.

1. THANK GOD.
2. By telling all Black People that they only vote for Democrats for "free stuff". Yeah, that's a real coming-together moment.
3. I don't know what an "Anti-Obama" is, and I don't want to. But if anyone would be the "Anti-Obama", It would be Jindal.
4. There, I may agree with you on, he actually does have a record of 8 years of leadership on a swing state. But that 8 years ended 8 years ago, with him only winning that seat, 4 years prior... That's a pretty big leap to run on.

1. Yeah I guess job growth, less poverty, and the downfall of the Soviet Union did suck
2. The media and leftists love taking things out of context, that isn't what he said
3. The anti-Obama is someone who is accomplished, can work with others, is honest, believes in free markets, and believes in a strong national defense.
4. So, Reagan left office in 1975 and was elected five years later, this is 8 years, not that big a difference

1. Yeah, I guess negotiating with terrorists, tripling the federal budget, and vetoing a Anti-Apartheid act all really saved America.
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99BLqRAZweg - Totally didn't say that. Totally taking that out of context.
3. That's really just naming any semi-moderate Republican. Plus some of that is pretty opinionated.
4. Well, he ran in '76 and got quite a following that boosted him to victory in '80. Bush had no following, and would not if his father and brother had not been president.

[Likely Voter]

The one thing saving Jeb for now is that the party elites don't yet have a clear alternative to back. Rubio, Kasich and even Christie are each showing signs of growing support which means the whole Establishment wing is splintering when by this point they should be consolidating behind one candidate. That gives Bush some time. Two things to watch 1. Will his huge media buy change things in IA and NH? 2. Can he actually come out of the CNBC debate with good buzz?

If the answer to both of those is no, then its rats off the ship time. Then the issue will be if the support keeps splintering in November or by that time has one candidate emerged as the new Establishment darling.

[Progressive]

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

No, he's struggling the primary because there's no basis for his candidacy. There are better "moderate" center-right Republican governors running (Kasich, Christie) who were actually elected in this decade.

[dudeabides]

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

No, he's struggling the primary because there's no basis for his candidacy. There are better "moderate" center-right Republican governors running (Kasich, Christie) who were actually elected in this decade.

There is a basis for his candidacy. Our country is headed in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts and we need someone with a proven record of reform who can turn it around. Jeb Bush has those skills, he was in business and served as Governor of one of the largest states in the country where he fundamentally reformed government.

Chris Christie has not been a great Governor. He was handed a very difficult situation and while he did some good things in his first term, his second term has been a complete disaster. He's increased debt, corporate welfare, and he's failed to cut taxes.

John Kasich believes that the Supreme Court is the ultimate authority and I don't think Americans want someone who spent 18 years in Washington D.C. at a time when congress has historically low approval ratings, the people want someone who is either an outsider or at least a fresh face. 

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

No, he's struggling the primary because there's no basis for his candidacy. There are better "moderate" center-right Republican governors running (Kasich, Christie) who were actually elected in this decade.

There is a basis for his candidacy. Our country is headed in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts and we need someone with a proven record of reform who can turn it around. Jeb Bush has those skills, he was in business and served as Governor of one of the largest states in the country where he fundamentally reformed government.

Chris Christie has not been a great Governor. He was handed a very difficult situation and while he did some good things in his first term, his second term has been a complete disaster. He's increased debt, corporate welfare, and he's failed to cut taxes.

John Kasich believes that the Supreme Court is the ultimate authority and I don't think Americans want someone who spent 18 years in Washington D.C. at a time when congress has historically low approval ratings, the people want someone who is either an outsider or at least a fresh face. 

And the people, loudly and clearly, want Donald J. Trump to be that someone.

[Bigby]

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

No, he's struggling the primary because there's no basis for his candidacy. There are better "moderate" center-right Republican governors running (Kasich, Christie) who were actually elected in this decade.

There is a basis for his candidacy. Our country is headed in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts and we need someone with a proven record of reform who can turn it around. Jeb Bush has those skills, he was in business and served as Governor of one of the largest states in the country where he fundamentally reformed government.

Chris Christie has not been a great Governor. He was handed a very difficult situation and while he did some good things in his first term, his second term has been a complete disaster. He's increased debt, corporate welfare, and he's failed to cut taxes.

John Kasich believes that the Supreme Court is the ultimate authority and I don't think Americans want someone who spent 18 years in Washington D.C. at a time when congress has historically low approval ratings, the people want someone who is either an outsider or at least a fresh face. 

And the people, loudly and clearly, want Donald J. Trump to be that someone.

And Carson too, it seems like. The cornflake man is within striking distance.

[dudeabides]

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

No, he's struggling the primary because there's no basis for his candidacy. There are better "moderate" center-right Republican governors running (Kasich, Christie) who were actually elected in this decade.

There is a basis for his candidacy. Our country is headed in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts and we need someone with a proven record of reform who can turn it around. Jeb Bush has those skills, he was in business and served as Governor of one of the largest states in the country where he fundamentally reformed government.

Chris Christie has not been a great Governor. He was handed a very difficult situation and while he did some good things in his first term, his second term has been a complete disaster. He's increased debt, corporate welfare, and he's failed to cut taxes.

John Kasich believes that the Supreme Court is the ultimate authority and I don't think Americans want someone who spent 18 years in Washington D.C. at a time when congress has historically low approval ratings, the people want someone who is either an outsider or at least a fresh face. 

And the people, loudly and clearly, want Donald J. Trump to be that someone.

In the long run, the voters are going to recognize that Donald Trump is no different than a typical politician who says anything to win, only unlike Republicans, Mr. Trump has been an ardent champion of socialism like Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

There is a basis for his candidacy. Our country is headed in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts and we need someone with a proven record of reform who can turn it around. Jeb Bush has those skills, he was in business and served as Governor of one of the largest states in the country where he fundamentally reformed government.

Chris Christie has not been a great Governor. He was handed a very difficult situation and while he did some good things in his first term, his second term has been a complete disaster. He's increased debt, corporate welfare, and he's failed to cut taxes.

John Kasich believes that the Supreme Court is the ultimate authority and I don't think Americans want someone who spent 18 years in Washington D.C. at a time when congress has historically low approval ratings, the people want someone who is either an outsider or at least a fresh face. 

This is unfair to Christie. Both Florida's legislative chambers have been under control of the Republican Party since 1996. In New Jersey, Democrats have a 60-40 percent advantage over Republicans in both of New Jersey's legislative chambers. Isn't New Jersey a very liberal state in general? Which would lead to very liberal Democrats in their legislature that wouldn't want to compromise even with a moderate conservative like Christie? Chris Christie has never struck me as a liberal RINO or anything of that nature when I listen to him in debates or read his public issue statements. Jeb was simply in a much, MUCH better position to bring about Conservative reform than Christie ever could.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

No, he's struggling the primary because there's no basis for his candidacy. There are better "moderate" center-right Republican governors running (Kasich, Christie) who were actually elected in this decade.

There is a basis for his candidacy. Our country is headed in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts and we need someone with a proven record of reform who can turn it around. Jeb Bush has those skills, he was in business and served as Governor of one of the largest states in the country where he fundamentally reformed government.

Chris Christie has not been a great Governor. He was handed a very difficult situation and while he did some good things in his first term, his second term has been a complete disaster. He's increased debt, corporate welfare, and he's failed to cut taxes.

John Kasich believes that the Supreme Court is the ultimate authority and I don't think Americans want someone who spent 18 years in Washington D.C. at a time when congress has historically low approval ratings, the people want someone who is either an outsider or at least a fresh face. 

And the people, loudly and clearly, want Donald J. Trump to be that someone.

In the long run, the voters are going to recognize that Donald Trump is no different than a typical politician who says anything to win, only unlike Republicans, Mr. Trump has been an ardent champion of socialism like Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.

You've been saying this for 3 months; reiterating a talking point over and over again doesn't make it true. Donald Trump is the one man who cannot be bought, and that one fact alone gives him a staggering advantage over the rest of the field.

[Bigby]

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

No, he's struggling the primary because there's no basis for his candidacy. There are better "moderate" center-right Republican governors running (Kasich, Christie) who were actually elected in this decade.

There is a basis for his candidacy. Our country is headed in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts and we need someone with a proven record of reform who can turn it around. Jeb Bush has those skills, he was in business and served as Governor of one of the largest states in the country where he fundamentally reformed government.

Chris Christie has not been a great Governor. He was handed a very difficult situation and while he did some good things in his first term, his second term has been a complete disaster. He's increased debt, corporate welfare, and he's failed to cut taxes.

John Kasich believes that the Supreme Court is the ultimate authority and I don't think Americans want someone who spent 18 years in Washington D.C. at a time when congress has historically low approval ratings, the people want someone who is either an outsider or at least a fresh face. 

And the people, loudly and clearly, want Donald J. Trump to be that someone.

In the long run, the voters are going to recognize that Donald Trump is no different than a typical politician who says anything to win, only unlike Republicans, Mr. Trump has been an ardent champion of socialism like Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.

You've been saying this for 3 months; reiterating a talking point over and over again doesn't make it true. Donald Trump is the one man who cannot be bought, and that one fact alone gives him a staggering advantage over the rest of the field.

He's kind of more right this time, actually. Back in August and earlier this month, you were right. Now that Trump is starting to slip...

[Maxwell]

Wasn't John McCain doing worse in 2007? 

'
McCain was miles away a better political talent than Jeb Bush is.

[dudeabides]

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

No, he's struggling the primary because there's no basis for his candidacy. There are better "moderate" center-right Republican governors running (Kasich, Christie) who were actually elected in this decade.

There is a basis for his candidacy. Our country is headed in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts and we need someone with a proven record of reform who can turn it around. Jeb Bush has those skills, he was in business and served as Governor of one of the largest states in the country where he fundamentally reformed government.

Chris Christie has not been a great Governor. He was handed a very difficult situation and while he did some good things in his first term, his second term has been a complete disaster. He's increased debt, corporate welfare, and he's failed to cut taxes.

John Kasich believes that the Supreme Court is the ultimate authority and I don't think Americans want someone who spent 18 years in Washington D.C. at a time when congress has historically low approval ratings, the people want someone who is either an outsider or at least a fresh face. 

And the people, loudly and clearly, want Donald J. Trump to be that someone.

In the long run, the voters are going to recognize that Donald Trump is no different than a typical politician who says anything to win, only unlike Republicans, Mr. Trump has been an ardent champion of socialism like Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.

You've been saying this for 3 months; reiterating a talking point over and over again doesn't make it true. Donald Trump is the one man who cannot be bought, and that one fact alone gives him a staggering advantage over the rest of the field.

Trump can't be bought because he has an enormous ego. What gives him an advantage is that less engaged voters love him as those of us who do read and follow this stuff are divided.

[Torie]

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

No, he's struggling the primary because there's no basis for his candidacy. There are better "moderate" center-right Republican governors running (Kasich, Christie) who were actually elected in this decade.

There is a basis for his candidacy. Our country is headed in the wrong direction on a variety of fronts and we need someone with a proven record of reform who can turn it around. Jeb Bush has those skills, he was in business and served as Governor of one of the largest states in the country where he fundamentally reformed government.

Chris Christie has not been a great Governor. He was handed a very difficult situation and while he did some good things in his first term, his second term has been a complete disaster. He's increased debt, corporate welfare, and he's failed to cut taxes.

John Kasich believes that the Supreme Court is the ultimate authority and I don't think Americans want someone who spent 18 years in Washington D.C. at a time when congress has historically low approval ratings, the people want someone who is either an outsider or at least a fresh face. 

If Jeb disagrees with Kasich on the bolded bit above, then he is clearly unfit to be POTUS, and I will not vote for him under any circumstance. I consider that the most dangerous attack on our form of government at its best - checks and balances based on the rule of law adjudicated by an impartial body.  But so far as I know, Jeb agrees with Kasich, and thus why did you mention it? Saying you disagrees with some SCOTUS decisions is an entirely different matter, than suggesting that SCOTUS should not have the power to make those decisions as the final arbiter.

[Kingpoleon]

His recent ad buy lets him tie Kasich in New Hampshire.

#JebMentum