It's make or break time for Jeb Bush
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  It's make or break time for Jeb Bush
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Author Topic: It's make or break time for Jeb Bush  (Read 1679 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: September 28, 2015, 07:46:34 AM »

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/its-make-or-break-time-for-jeb-bush/2015/09/27/73d5f6fa-63c0-11e5-b38e-06883aacba64_story.html
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sg0508
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2015, 07:50:40 AM »

Not yet, but it's getting there. I think by Thanksgiving, he'll need to make his move in the polls.  That being said, I think the nomination is still his if he wants it. He's got the $$$ and the machine behind him.  Sometimes if you're in the media's eyes too long, you go stale.  Perhaps this is a calculated strategy?
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2015, 07:53:52 AM »

Not yet, but it's getting there. I think by Thanksgiving, he'll need to make his move in the polls.  That being said, I think the nomination is still his if he wants it. He's got the $$$ and the machine behind him.  Sometimes if you're in the media's eyes too long, you go stale.  Perhaps this is a calculated strategy?

He just blew a huge portion of money on his latest ad campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the money is starting to dry up plus he has been falling in the polls for the last couple of months. If this is part of his strategy, it's clearly failing.
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2015, 08:22:07 AM »

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My god the Bush team is delusional. Jeb will never win over the Conservative base no matter how hard you try to push him onto others. I've literally never met a Jeb supporter in real life that was a solid conservative. Go to any Conservative website and read the comment section and find a Jeb supporter. They don't want him.
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MisSkeptic
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2015, 08:23:01 AM »

Not yet, but it's getting there. I think by Thanksgiving, he'll need to make his move in the polls.  That being said, I think the nomination is still his if he wants it. He's got the $$$ and the machine behind him.  Sometimes if you're in the media's eyes too long, you go stale.  Perhaps this is a calculated strategy?

He just blew a huge portion of money on his latest ad campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the money is starting to dry up plus he has been falling in the polls for the last couple of months. If this is part of his strategy, it's clearly failing.

I agree. If the race for the Republican nomination was not only smaller, but a shorter one than Jeb could easily get conservative voters and think tanks to rally behind him.

However, since not only are there way too many Republican candidates, Jeb Bush has to compete with other candidates who's campaigns are very similar-pro-life, faith, etc-which just starts to sound too similar and unoriginal to voters who are looking for something new to sink their teeth into.

Also, Jeb comes across as too awkward during the debates; which millions people around the world get to see what the Republican party has to offer for the 2016 election, and the world if they get elected President.

Which is why someone like Donald Trump comes across so popular with so many people. This doesn't mean everyone loves him, but he's able to express himself without looking like he doesn't want to be there.  
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2015, 08:30:53 AM »

Not yet, but it's getting there. I think by Thanksgiving, he'll need to make his move in the polls.  That being said, I think the nomination is still his if he wants it. He's got the $$$ and the machine behind him.  Sometimes if you're in the media's eyes too long, you go stale.  Perhaps this is a calculated strategy?

He just blew a huge portion of money on his latest ad campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the money is starting to dry up plus he has been falling in the polls for the last couple of months. If this is part of his strategy, it's clearly failing.

I agree. If the race for the Republican nomination was not only smaller, but a shorter one than Jeb could easily get conservative voters and think tanks to rally behind him.

However, since not only are there way too many Republican candidates, Jeb Bush has to compete with other candidates who's campaigns are very similar-pro-life, faith, etc-which just starts to sound too similar and unoriginal to voters who are looking for something new to sink their teeth into.

Also, Jeb comes across as too awkward during the debates; which millions people around the world get to see what the Republican party has to offer for the 2016 election, and the world if they get elected President.

Which is why someone like Donald Trump comes across so popular with so many people. This doesn't mean everyone loves him, but he's able to express himself without looking like he doesn't want to be there.  

I'm still holding to my view that Jeb will not be the nominee.
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MisSkeptic
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2015, 08:36:47 AM »

At this point it's still up in the air who will become the nominee. Before I did agree with everyone Jeb Bush will be the nominee, but I now think someone like Marco Rubio will have a greater chance than Bush now.
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dudeabides
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2015, 09:29:46 AM »

From the article,
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My god the Bush team is delusional. Jeb will never win over the Conservative base no matter how hard you try to push him onto others. I've literally never met a Jeb supporter in real life that was a solid conservative. Go to any Conservative website and read the comment section and find a Jeb supporter. They don't want him.

Jeb Bush is not trying to win over the base, he's "losing the primary to win the general."
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2015, 09:32:07 AM »

From the article,
Quote
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My god the Bush team is delusional. Jeb will never win over the Conservative base no matter how hard you try to push him onto others. I've literally never met a Jeb supporter in real life that was a solid conservative. Go to any Conservative website and read the comment section and find a Jeb supporter. They don't want him.

Jeb Bush is not trying to win over the base, he's "losing the primary to win the general."

Well sorry to break it to ya dudeabides, but 6-9% of the primary vote won't get you the nomination....
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2015, 09:47:52 AM »

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2015, 10:15:13 AM »

I wonder how much secretive (and illegal) coordination is happening. If the pro-Bush ads don't move the needle, Bush and his campaign will need to start hitting Rubio, Trump, and maybe Kasich and Fiorina in NH.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2015, 10:26:40 AM »
« Edited: September 28, 2015, 10:47:54 AM by EliteLX »

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2015, 10:46:13 AM »

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

I don't think he's saying Jeb struggles on the issues. Jeb is struggling right now because he's running an inept campaign. If you're running an inept primary campaign, you'll probably run an inept general election campaign.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2015, 10:48:43 AM »

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

I don't think he's saying Jeb struggles on the issues. Jeb is struggling right now because he's running an inept campaign. If you're running an inept primary campaign, you'll probably run an inept general election campaign.

I can agree with you there!
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dudeabides
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2015, 11:00:54 AM »

I find it incredibly troubling that one has to be a great speaker to become President of the United States. You have to be able to articulate a message and communicate once elected, yes, but not everyone is Ronald Reagan.

Jeb Bush is where he is because people are angry right now, probably more angry than they were under Jimmy Carter. Bush is telling people to be happy and optimistic, and in the end I think they will be, but right now they are angry and the outsiders are tapping into that anger. But Jeb Bush is the anti-Obama in this election; he has a conservative agenda, a conservative record, and he is an honest guy. But people are fed up and don't realize that Bush draws the starkest contrast not just on the stump, but in having an actual record, with the Democrats.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2015, 11:08:46 AM »

From the article,
Quote
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My god the Bush team is delusional. Jeb will never win over the Conservative base no matter how hard you try to push him onto others. I've literally never met a Jeb supporter in real life that was a solid conservative. Go to any Conservative website and read the comment section and find a Jeb supporter. They don't want him.

Jeb Bush is not trying to win over the base, he's "losing the primary to win the general."

That means Jeb is running as an independent, eh?  At least if you take it literally it does.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2015, 11:10:23 AM »

I find it incredibly troubling that one has to be a great speaker to become President of the United States. You have to be able to articulate a message and communicate once elected, yes, but not everyone is Ronald Reagan.

Jeb Bush is where he is because people are angry right now, probably more angry than they were under Jimmy Carter. Bush is telling people to be happy and optimistic, and in the end I think they will be, but right now they are angry and the outsiders are tapping into that anger. But Jeb Bush is the anti-Obama in this election; he has a conservative agenda, a conservative record, and he is an honest guy. But people are fed up and don't realize that Bush draws the starkest contrast not just on the stump, but in having an actual record, with the Democrats.
1. THANK GOD.
2. By telling all Black People that they only vote for Democrats for "free stuff". Yeah, that's a real coming-together moment.
3. I don't know what an "Anti-Obama" is, and I don't want to. But if anyone would be the "Anti-Obama", It would be Jindal.
4. There, I may agree with you on, he actually does have a record of 8 years of leadership on a swing state. But that 8 years ended 8 years ago, with him only winning that seat, 4 years prior... That's a pretty big leap to run on.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2015, 11:13:05 AM »

Struggling in a primary normally means you'll struggle in the general.

This is simply false. All republicans would suck up and vote for Jeb Bush when it came down to it. He's perfectly conservative enough, has excellent fiscal achievement in Florida and has a heart that you can't quite find out of the other 20+ candidates in this race on both sides. I don't care what people tell polling companies right now, the Republican base would come down to election week with Hillary Clinton as the Dem nominee and would get off their ass and vote for Jeb. He's not George Pataki. Jeb is absolutely conservative on various issues and conservatively moderate on a few issues at absolute worse.

Jeb is playing for the general and seeings as how the GOP base would suck up and vote for him, then he just has to broaden the base outside that, which is what he looks to be doing.

Jeb struggling in the primary is not a sign he'll struggle in the general. He's struggling in the primary because he is playing for the general instead of catering to the GOP base this early on.

Jeb is strugging for a specific reason, which is that a wide range of Republicans blame George W. Bush for the collapse of center-right hegemony in Presidential politics and the advantage the Democratic candidate enjoys in Presidential elections.  They also consider the Bush name to be toxic, and nothing that has happened in the last 8 years has significantly mitigated the negativity toward the Bush Family as a whole.

This is different than struggling for your particular campaign tack.  Lots of struggling candidates have fired their consultant and changed course on the way to better fortunes.  All the consultants in the world will not remove Jeb from the negatives of being a Bush.  Period.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2015, 11:18:29 AM »

I find it incredibly troubling that one has to be a great speaker to become President of the United States. You have to be able to articulate a message and communicate once elected, yes, but not everyone is Ronald Reagan.

Jeb Bush is where he is because people are angry right now, probably more angry than they were under Jimmy Carter. Bush is telling people to be happy and optimistic, and in the end I think they will be, but right now they are angry and the outsiders are tapping into that anger. But Jeb Bush is the anti-Obama in this election; he has a conservative agenda, a conservative record, and he is an honest guy. But people are fed up and don't realize that Bush draws the starkest contrast not just on the stump, but in having an actual record, with the Democrats.

Republicans are angry with Bush because he's running for President despite being the brother of a recently failed GOP President.  All the apologia for W you can muster doesn't change the public verdict on Bush 43, which still stands.   Republicans of ALL stripes get this, and they don't want to lose in 2016.  They view Jeb's candidacy as self-indulgent on Jeb's part, and on the part of the entire Bush Family, and, quite frankly, I can't see a reason why any partisan Republican, whether they be liberal, moderate, or conservative, should view Jeb's candidacy in any other light.
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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2015, 11:24:22 AM »

He's already been broken by Trump. Trump will be coming for Rube-e-o next.
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dudeabides
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2015, 11:35:11 AM »

From the article,
Quote
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My god the Bush team is delusional. Jeb will never win over the Conservative base no matter how hard you try to push him onto others. I've literally never met a Jeb supporter in real life that was a solid conservative. Go to any Conservative website and read the comment section and find a Jeb supporter. They don't want him.

Jeb Bush is not trying to win over the base, he's "losing the primary to win the general."

That means Jeb is running as an independent, eh?  At least if you take it literally it does.

Jeb Bush is not the most conservative Republican running, but he is not the most moderate one running either. It's just the perception.

I find it incredibly troubling that one has to be a great speaker to become President of the United States. You have to be able to articulate a message and communicate once elected, yes, but not everyone is Ronald Reagan.

Jeb Bush is where he is because people are angry right now, probably more angry than they were under Jimmy Carter. Bush is telling people to be happy and optimistic, and in the end I think they will be, but right now they are angry and the outsiders are tapping into that anger. But Jeb Bush is the anti-Obama in this election; he has a conservative agenda, a conservative record, and he is an honest guy. But people are fed up and don't realize that Bush draws the starkest contrast not just on the stump, but in having an actual record, with the Democrats.
1. THANK GOD.
2. By telling all Black People that they only vote for Democrats for "free stuff". Yeah, that's a real coming-together moment.
3. I don't know what an "Anti-Obama" is, and I don't want to. But if anyone would be the "Anti-Obama", It would be Jindal.
4. There, I may agree with you on, he actually does have a record of 8 years of leadership on a swing state. But that 8 years ended 8 years ago, with him only winning that seat, 4 years prior... That's a pretty big leap to run on.

1. Yeah I guess job growth, less poverty, and the downfall of the Soviet Union did suck
2. The media and leftists love taking things out of context, that isn't what he said
3. The anti-Obama is someone who is accomplished, can work with others, is honest, believes in free markets, and believes in a strong national defense.
4. So, Reagan left office in 1975 and was elected five years later, this is 8 years, not that big a difference
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2015, 11:48:34 AM »

Not yet, but it's getting there. I think by Thanksgiving, he'll need to make his move in the polls.  That being said, I think the nomination is still his if he wants it. He's got the $$$ and the machine behind him.  Sometimes if you're in the media's eyes too long, you go stale.  Perhaps this is a calculated strategy?

That's been my speculation as well for a while. I just have trouble believing it sometimes, because he's been coming across as so awfully ham-handed and tone-deaf.
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2015, 03:36:13 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2015, 03:38:00 PM by Crab »

Yes, what I meant is that Jeb is running an extremely inept campaign, with very basic mistakes of politicking. The reasons he is failing is not because of ideology or policy, it's because he is foregrounding his negative issues, has panicked at the sign of trouble and has stuck to the same staid taking points about his governorship which in politician years is like a century ago. That is the sort of failure that dogs a politician whether they are running in the primary or the general.
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mencken
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2015, 06:07:25 PM »

Does anybody believe a Bush withdrawal is a nontrivial possibility within the next month (i.e. if he does not have a very good debate performance on the 28th?) I realize it seems outlandish, but this story seems eerily similar to those about Walker in the weeks before his exit.
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dudeabides
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2015, 06:10:48 PM »

Does anybody believe a Bush withdrawal is a nontrivial possibility within the next month (i.e. if he does not have a very good debate performance on the 28th?) I realize it seems outlandish, but this story seems eerily similar to those about Walker in the weeks before his exit.

No way, McCain was doing badly through the fall of 2007 and even Reagan had some early difficulty.
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